Fitch Ratings has downgraded four, affirmed 10 and revised the Rating Outlooks on six classes of Citigroup Commercial Mortgage Trust CGCMT 2016-P3 commercial mortgage pass-through certificates.

RATING ACTIONSENTITY/DEBT	RATING		PRIOR

CGCMT 2016-P3

A-2 29429CAB1

LT	AAAsf 	Affirmed		AAAsf

A-3 29429CAC9

LT	AAAsf 	Affirmed		AAAsf

A-4 29429CAD7

LT	AAAsf 	Affirmed		AAAsf

A-AB 29429CAE5

LT	AAAsf 	Affirmed		AAAsf

A-S 29429CAF2

LT	AAAsf 	Affirmed		AAAsf

B 29429CAG0

LT	AA-sf 	Affirmed		AA-sf

C 29429CAH8

LT	A-sf 	Affirmed		A-sf

D 29429CAM7

LT	BB-sf 	Downgrade		BBB-sf

E 29429CAP0

LT	Bsf 	Downgrade		BBsf

EC 29429CAL9

LT	A-sf 	Affirmed		A-sf

F 29429CAR6

LT	CCCsf 	Downgrade		Bsf

X-A 29429CAJ4

LT	AAAsf 	Affirmed		AAAsf

X-B 29429CAK1

LT	AA-sf 	Affirmed		AA-sf

X-D 29429CAV7

LT	BB-sf 	Downgrade		BBB-sf

VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS

Class A-1 is paid in full.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Increased Loss Expectations/Specially Serviced Loans: Since Fitch's last review, loss expectations for the pool have increased due to increased specially serviced loans and Fitch Loans of Concern (FLOCs), most of which is due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Seven loans (21.2%) are currently in special servicing, including three (16.1%) within the top 15. Sixteen loans (50.9%) are considered FLOCs, including the specially serviced loans (21.2%) due to decline in performance as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and/or occupancy declines due to tenants vacating and upcoming rollover concerns. The downgrade reflects an increase in the likelihood of losses to classes D, X-D, E, and F given these concerns. Fitch's current ratings incorporate a base case loss of 9.1%. The Negative Rating Outlooks factor in additional stresses related to the coronavirus pandemic, reflecting losses that could reach 12.1%.

The top five largest contributors to loss expectations: The Empire Mall (8.8% of the pool), the largest loan in the transaction and largest change in loss since the last rating action. The loan is secured by a 1,124,178-sf superregional mall located in Sioux Falls, SD. The decline in performance is due to tenants vacating. Gordman's closed in May 2020. The Gap and Banana Republic (2.2% of NRA) announced on Aug. 17, 2020 their plans to close at the subject, and have vacated. In September 2018 anchor tenants, Younkers and Sears, and large tenant ToysRUs had vacated. The ToysRUs space was taken over by Scandinavian Designs in June 2018 and the store opened in Feb. 2019; they have been paying ground rent and operating costs since. They also recently executed a five-year extension to Feb. 1, 2025.

The mall has also experienced fluctuating in-line and anchor sales in addition to new retail competition directly north of subject. The most recent reported in-line sales were $327 per square foot (psf) (Dec. 2020) compared to $416 psf (TTM October 2019); $422 (TTM October 2018); $406 psf (YE 2017); and $436 psf (TTM September 2015). Anchors JC Penney, Macy's, and Dick's Sporting Goods reported $123 psf (YE 2020) compared to $134 psf (YE 2019); $90 psf (YE 2020); 143 psf (YE 2019); $115 psf (TTM 10/2018); $96 psf (YE 2020); $130 psf (YE 2019); respectively. The loan matures in December 2025.

Fitch's ratings reflect an analysis that includes a 12% cap rate and 20% stress to the YE 2019 net operating income (NOI) to reflect concerns with increasing vacancy and tenant rollover. An additional sensitivity scenario assumed a 20% cap rate and 20% stress to YE 2019 NOI to reflect the potential for continued performance issues due to the pandemic.

The specially serviced Marriott Midwest Portfolio (7.7%) is secured by a portfolio of 10 hotels, totaling 1,103 rooms, located across the midwestern US. There are three properties in Michigan (36% loan balance, 338 rooms), six properties in Minnesota (54% loan balance, 653 rooms), and one property in Wisconsin (10% loan balance, 112 rooms). Seven of the hotels operate as SpringHill Suites and three operate as TownePlace Suites, both of which are affiliated with Marriott. Each of the hotels is entered in a 15-year franchise agreement with Marriott that expire in February 2031, nearly 10 years past the loan maturity.

The loan was transferred to special servicing in June 2020 for the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The loan was due for the April and May 2020 payments and borrower notified the sub servicer of coronavirus related hardships. The YE 2019 reflects a debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 2.64x compared to 3.00x YE 2018. The most recent occupancy as of March 2020 was 73.9% with average daily rate (ADR) of $110.49 and revenue per available room (RevPAR) of $81.64. Cash management has been triggered due to payment default. While forbearance is under consideration, the borrower is in the market to raise $20 million for debt service, working capital future property improvement plan (PIP). The borrower received feedback from the market and has proposed an A/B structure that is under review by the special servicer. Fitch's analysis included a discount to the most recent appraisal value provided by the special servicer.

The specially serviced loan, 600 Broadway (6.5%), is secured by a 77,280-sf mixed use building in Soho in New York City. While the property is 100% vacant, Abercrombie & Fitch leases 60.8% NRA through May 2028 and continues to pay rent for all of their space. The borrower previously terminated a lease with 24-Hour Fitness, who had also vacated, in order to re-lease the space to Konrad beginning in November 2020; however, it is unclear if Konrad took occupancy of their space or chose to terminate their lease. Media reports indicate that Target is planning to sign a lease to take over 27,000 sf (approximately 35% NRA) from Abercrombie & Fitch, which would result in the property being 35% occupied and approximately 61% leased.

Fitch's analysis included an overall 30% stress to YE 2018 NOI to address tenant volatility. Credit was given to the asset's high-quality location, the positive co-tenancy impact of Target's lease, and Abercrombie & Fitch's long-term lease.

The specially serviced loan, 725 8th Avenue (1.6%), was transferred to special servicing effective August 2019 due to payment default. The loan is due for the July 6, 2019 payment. The property is a 4,773-sf single tenant retail property located in Manhattan and was 100% leased to Wahlburgers at issuance. The property is fully vacant as the tenant from origination never took occupancy and ceased rental payments long ago.

A foreclosure complaint was filed on Oct. 15, 2019. The court appointed a referee to calculate amounts due on Jan. 24, 2020. A motion to confirm referee report filed May 2020 (upon courts reopening to foreclosure matters), which was ultimately approved. The court signed the foreclosure judgment on June 17, 2020. Judgement was entered by the clerk on Nov. 4, 2020. The special servicer is awaiting a foreclosure sale date and procedures from the court. Fitch analysis included a discount to the most recent appraisal value provided by the special servicer.

The specially serviced loan, Home2Suites Aberdeen (1.5%), is secured by a 107-room extended stay hotel in Aberdeen MD. The loan was transferred to special servicing in March 2020 for coronavirus as the borrower requested deferral of debt service. A forbearance agreement was put in place effective June 5, 2020 and expired Sept. 4, 2020. The loan is secured by the borrower's fee interest in a 107-room extended stay hotel branded as Home2 Suites by Hilton, located in Aberdeen MD. The property was constructed in 2014 and the franchise agreement with Hilton expires in November 2034.

The property had been closed from March 23, 2020 and reopened mid-June. Per the special servicer, the borrower provided updated forecast for 2021 and additional forbearance terms are under review. Per the January 2021 Smith Travel Research (STR) report, occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR were 46.4%, $103, $48 compared to 43.8%, $108, $47 for its competitive set with a RevPAR penetration of 101.8%. Fitch's ratings reflect an analysis that includes a 11.50% cap rate and 26% stress to YE 2019 NOI.

Increased Credit Enhancement: As of the February 2020 distribution date, the pool's aggregate principal balance has been reduced by 7.8% to $711.1 million from $771.0 million at issuance. The pool is scheduled to amortize by 6.8% of the initial pool balance prior to maturity. Ten loans (38.8%) are full-term interest-only and 14 loans (45.5%) remain in partial-interest-only periods. The remaining 12 loans (15.7%) are amortizing balloon loans with terms of five to 10 years. Three loans (3.1%) are fully defeased, of which two (2.9%) have defeased since Fitch's last rating action. Loan maturities are concentrated in 2026 (74.7%), with limited maturities scheduled in 2021 (7.7%), and 2025 (17.7%).

Fitch performed an additional sensitivity on the largest loan, Empire Mall, that assumed a 20% cap rate and 20% stress to YE 2019 to address concerns with the longer-term impact of the pandemic on performance. This analysis contributed to the negative outlook revisions.

Coronavirus Exposure: There are 10 loans (25.7%) secured by retail properties, including the largest loan in the pool (8.8% of the pool). The retail element of the pool consists of one regional mall (largest loan in the pool 8.8%), and a mix of unanchored and anchored shopping centers. Hotels comprise 21.5% of the pool, including three (16.1%) loans in the top 15. Fitch is monitoring the performance of these assets given the negative outlook and expectation that hotel performance will be significantly impacted by a reduction in travel. Fitch's base case analysis applied an additional NOI stress on five retail loans and three hotels due to the expected decline in travel from the pandemic. These additional stresses contributed to the Negative Outlooks on classes A-S, B, C, D, E, X-A, X-B and X-D.

Credit Opinion Loan: One loan, 225 Liberty Street (5.7% of the pool) received an investment-grade credit opinion of 'BBBsf' on a stand-alone basis at issuance.

Pari Passu Loans: Approximately 56.6% of the pool, including nine of the top 10 loans, consists of loans with pari passu participations.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The Negative Outlooks on classes A-S, X-A, B, X-B, C, EC, D, X-D, and E reflect the potential for a near-term rating downgrades should the performance of the specially serviced and FLOCs continue to deteriorate. The Negative Outlooks also reflect concerns with hotel and retail properties due to declines in travel and commerce as a result of the pandemic. The Stable Outlooks on all other classes reflects the overall stable performance of the remainder of the pool.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

Sensitivity factors that lead to upgrades would include stable to improved asset performance coupled with paydown and/or defeasance. Upgrades of classes B, X-B, C, and EC would only occur with significant improvement in CE and/or defeasance, but would be limited unless the specially serviced and FLOCs stabilize. An upgrade to classes D, X-D, E and F is not likely until the later years in a transaction and only if the performance of the remaining pool is stable and/or if there is sufficient CE, which would likely occur when the senior classes payoff and if the non-rated classes are not eroded. While uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic and the resolution of the Hilton Orrington Evanston continues, upgrades are not likely.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

Sensitivity factors that lead to downgrades include an increase in pool level losses from underperforming or specially serviced loans. Downgrades to classes A-3, A-4, A-AB, A-S, X-A, B, and X-B are less likely due to the high CE but may occur at 'AAAsf' or 'AAsf' should interest shortfalls occur or if the probability of an outsized loss on the specially serviced loans or a FLOC becomes more likely.

Downgrades to classes C and EC would occur should overall pool losses increase and/or one or more large loans, such as Marriott Midwest Portfolio, have an outsized loss which would erode CE and/or the Empire Mall loan defaults.

Downgrades to classes D, X-D, and E would occur should loss expectations increase due to an increase in specially serviced loans or an increase in the certainty of a loss on a specially serviced loan. The distressed class F could be further downgraded should losses be realized or become more certain. The Negative Outlooks may be revised back to Stable if performance of the FLOCs and specially serviced loans improves and/or properties vulnerable to the pandemic stabilize once the health crisis subsides.

In addition to its baseline scenario, Fitch also envisions a downside scenario where the health crisis is prolonged beyond 2021; should this scenario play out, Fitch expects that a greater percentage of classes may be assigned a Negative Outlook, or those with Negative Outlooks will be downgraded one or more categories. For more information on Fitch's original rating sensitivity on the transaction, please refer to the new issuance report at www.fitchratings.com.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com

APPLICABLE CRITERIA

Structured Finance and Covered Bonds Counterparty Rating Criteria (pub. 29 Jan 2020)

North America and Asia-Pacific Multiborrower CMBS Surveillance Criteria (pub. 16 Apr 2020) (including rating assumption sensitivity)

Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 17 Jun 2020) (including rating assumption sensitivity)

APPLICABLE MODELS

Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).

CMBS Conduit Surveillance Model, v1.19.4 (1)

ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form

Solicitation Status

Endorsement Policy

ENDORSEMENT STATUS

CGCMT 2016-P3 	EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed

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