As we pointed out in our last earnings commentary, McDonald's has doubled its prices over the last decade. On a constant sales basis, in addition to digitalization efforts, this explains its spectacular margin expansion over the period, and the doubling of earnings per share.

But there are other parameters in the equation. Before it can maximize its margins on meals served to its customers, they must continue to frequent its establishments in ever-increasing numbers. Now, for the first time in four years, McDonald's is reporting negative like-for-like sales.

This underperformance is likely to be the talk of the town for some time to come. In fact, it had been remarkably well anticipated by the analysts who follow the Group - whose consensus trends, it should be noted, are tracked in real time by MarketScreener.

This is a dramatic pivot for McDonald's, to say the least. Last year at this time, like-for-like sales were up 11.7%. This half-year also marks the first half-year of declining sales since 2018, Covid episode aside.

Such a development inevitably raises questions about the state of the American economy. The United States, which accounts for 41% of the Group's sales, is the Group's weakest link, according to CEO Chris Kempczinski. In the fast-food sector as elsewhere, the budget-consumer segment, traditionally the first to be exposed to a recession, is of course the one on which all attention is focused.

On a more positive note, and despite this context, the 42,000-store chain is maintaining its margins at record levels. In addition, a trend that has remained unbroken over the last ten years is that of increasing returns to shareholders. Dividends per share have doubled over the period, while the number of shares in circulation has fallen by a quarter.

With the company's valuation falling back to its ten-year lows, and even flirting with the twenty-times-earnings low reached at the height of the Covid panic, there's no doubt that McDonald's will be going all out on share buybacks from now on. For Bic Mac fans, this could be an attractive contrarian investment opportunity.