MERCURY GENERAL CORPORATION Forward-looking Statements
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for certain forward-looking statements. Certain statements contained in this report are forward-looking statements based on the Company's current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effects on the Company. There can be no assurance that future developments affecting the Company will be those anticipated by the Company. Actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties (some of which are beyond the control of the Company) and are subject to change based upon various factors, including but not limited to the following risks and uncertainties: changes in the demand for the Company's insurance products, inflation and general economic conditions, including general market risks associated with the Company's investment portfolio; the accuracy and adequacy of the Company's pricing methodologies; catastrophes in the markets served by the Company; uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions and projections generally; the possibility that actual loss experience may vary adversely from the actuarial estimates made to determine the Company's loss reserves in general; the Company's ability to obtain and the timing of the approval of premium rate changes for insurance policies issued in states where the Company operates; legislation adverse to the automobile insurance industry or business generally that may be enacted in the states where the Company operates; the Company's success in managing its business in non-California states; the presence of competitors with greater financial resources and the impact of competitive pricing and marketing efforts; the Company's ability to successfully manage its claims organization outside ofCalifornia ; the Company's ability to successfully allocate the resources used in the states with reduced or exited operations to its operations in other states; changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; pandemics, epidemics, widespread health emergencies, or outbreaks of infectious diseases; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and legal, cyber security, regulatory and litigation risks. From time to time, forward-looking statements are also included in the Company's quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K, in press releases, in presentations, on its web site, and in other materials released to the public. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K or, in the case of any document the Company incorporates by reference, any other report filed with theSEC or any other public statement made by the Company, the date of the document, report or statement. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or otherwise. OVERVIEW A. General The operating results of property and casualty insurance companies are subject to significant quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year fluctuations due to the effect of competition on pricing, the frequency and severity of losses, the effect of weather and natural disasters on losses, general economic conditions, the general regulatory environment in states in which an insurer operates, state regulation of insurance including premium rates, changes in fair value of investments, and other factors such as changes in tax laws. The property and casualty insurance industry has been highly cyclical, with periods of high premium rates and shortages of underwriting capacity followed by periods of severe price competition and excess capacity. These cycles can have a significant impact on the Company's ability to grow and retain business. The Company is headquartered inLos Angeles, California and writes primarily personal automobile lines of business selling policies through a network of independent agents, 100% owned insurance agents and direct channels, in 11 states:Arizona ,California ,Florida ,Georgia ,Illinois ,Nevada ,New Jersey ,New York ,Oklahoma ,Texas , andVirginia . The Company also offers homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial property, mechanical protection, fire, and umbrella insurance. Private passenger automobile lines of insurance business accounted for approximately 68% of the$3.9 billion of the Company's direct premiums written in 2021, and approximately 87% of the private passenger automobile premiums were written inCalifornia . In 2021, the Company ceased accepting new business and renewing existing policies for the commercial automobile line of insurance business inArizona ,Georgia ,Illinois andNevada . The commercial automobile line of insurance business in those states has been volatile and challenged the Company's objective of growing the business profitably. The Company plans to focus resources on the states and lines of insurance business with better opportunities for sustainable growth. The combined net premiums written in 2021 and 2020 for the commercial automobile line of insurance business in those states was approximately$8 million and$20 million , respectively.
This section discusses some of the relevant factors that management considers in evaluating the Company's
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performance, prospects, and risks. It is not all-inclusive and is meant to be
read in conjunction with the entirety of management's discussion and analysis,
the Company's consolidated financial statements and notes thereto, and all other
items contained within this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
2021 Financial Performance Summary
The Company's net income for the year ended December 31, 2021 was $247.9
million , or $4.48 per diluted share, compared to $374.6 million , or $6.77 per
diluted share, for the same period in 2020. Included in net income was $129.7
million of pre-tax net investment income that was generated during 2021 on a
portfolio of $5.1 billion , at fair value, at December 31, 2021 , compared to
$134.9 million of pre-tax net investment income that was generated during 2020
on a portfolio of $4.7 billion , at fair value, at December 31, 2020 . Also
included in net income were pre-tax net realized investment gains of $111.7
million and $85.7 million in 2021 and 2020, respectively, and pre-tax
catastrophe losses, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums earned, of
approximately $103.7 million and $60.9 million in 2021 and 2020, respectively.
During 2021, the Company continued its marketing efforts to enhance name
recognition and lead generation. The Company believes that its marketing
efforts, combined with its ability to maintain relatively low prices and a
strong reputation, make its insurance products competitive in
The Company believes its thorough underwriting process gives it an advantage over its competitors. The Company's agent relationships and underwriting and claims processes are its most important competitive advantages.
The Company's operating results and growth have allowed it to consistently
generate positive cash flow from operations, which was approximately
Economic and Industry Wide Factors
•Regulatory Uncertainty-The insurance industry is subject to strict state
regulation and oversight and is governed by the laws of each state in which each
insurance company operates. State regulators generally have substantial power
and authority over insurance companies including, in some states, approving rate
changes and rating factors, restricting cancellation and non-renewal of
insurance policies, and establishing minimum capital and surplus
requirements. In many states, insurance commissioners may emphasize different
agendas or interpret existing regulations differently than previous
commissioners. There is no certainty that current or future regulations and the
interpretation of those regulations by insurance commissioners and the courts
will not have an adverse impact on the Company.
•Cost Uncertainty-Because insurance companies pay claims after premiums are
collected, the ultimate cost of an insurance policy is not known until well
after the policy revenues are earned. Consequently, significant assumptions are
made when establishing insurance rates and loss reserves. While insurance
companies use sophisticated models and experienced actuaries to assist in
setting rates and establishing loss reserves, there can be no assurance that
current rates or current reserve estimates will be adequate. Furthermore, there
can be no assurance that insurance regulators will approve rate increases when
the Company's actuarial analyses indicate that they are needed.
•Economic Conditions-The Company's financial condition, results of operations,
and liquidity may be negatively impacted by global, national and local economic
conditions, such as recessions, increased levels of unemployment, inflation, and
large fluctuations in interest rates. Further, volatility in global capital
markets could adversely affect the Company's investment portfolio. The Company
is not able to predict the timing and effect of these factors, or their duration
and severity.
•Inflation-The largest cost component for automobile insurers is losses, which
include medical, replacement automobile parts, and labor costs. There can be
significant variation in the overall increases in medical cost inflation, and it
is often years after the respective fiscal period ends before sufficient claims
have closed for the inflation rate to be known with a reasonable degree of
certainty. Therefore, it can be difficult to establish reserves and set premium
rates, particularly when actual inflation rates may be higher or lower than
anticipated.
•Loss Frequency-Another component of overall loss costs is loss frequency, which
is the number of claims per risk insured. Loss frequency trends are affected by
many factors such as fuel prices, the economy, the prevalence of distracted
driving, collision avoidance and other technology in vehicles, and stay-at-home
orders issued by state and local governments due to the pandemic.
•Underwriting Cycle and Competition-The property and casualty insurance industry
is highly cyclical, with alternating hard and soft market conditions. The
Company believes that the automobile insurance industry market
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conditions during the first half of 2021 were soft. The market in most states
has hardened during the second half of 2021 as insurance carriers began to
increase rates reflecting high loss severity and increasing loss frequency as
the country emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. In California , market conditions
remain soft due to the difficulty in obtaining regulatory approval for rate
increases.
Technology
Since March of 2020, the Company has been leveraging its information technology capabilities to enable most of its employees to work from home and anywhere in theU.S. using mobile and collaborative technologies. In 2021, the Company focused on improving its digital and customer self-service capabilities. Additionally, the Company enhanced its underwriting capabilities and decisioning using a modern rules engine and several AI-enabled technologies. The Company continued its core insurance platform modernization initiative in an effort to complete the migration of its insurance business from its legacy systems to Guidewire's InsuranceSuite, a widely adopted industry-leading software for property and casualty insurance. In 2022, the Company intends to continue to invest in the modernization of its technology platforms. The Company also expects to complete the migration of itsCalifornia private passenger automobile underwriting and umbrella insurance to its consolidated insurance core system.
Note on COVID-19
InMarch 2020 , the outbreak of COVID-19 was recognized as a pandemic by theWorld Health Organization (the "WHO"), and the outbreak has become increasingly widespread inthe United States , including in the markets in which the Company operates. The pandemic has had a notable impact on general economic conditions, including, but not limited to, the temporary closures of many businesses, "shelter in place" and other governmental orders, and reduced consumer spending. The Company is following guidelines established by theCenters for Disease Control , theWHO and orders issued by the state and local governments in which the Company operates. The Company has taken a number of precautionary steps to safeguard its customers, business and employees from COVID-19, including activating its Business Continuity Plan. Most of the Company's employees have been working remotely, with only certain operationally critical employees working on site at various locations. The Company is monitoring and assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic daily, including recommendations and orders issued by federal, state and local governments. InNovember 2021 , the Company extended its "work-from-home" policy indefinitely under the new "Mercury's My Workplace" policy, allowing most of its employees to work from anywhere in theU.S. beginningJanuary 2022 . The Company's automobile line of insurance business began experiencing a significant decrease in loss frequency in March of 2020, and it remained lower than historical levels through the first half of 2021, although it began to increase as more drivers returned to the road following the gradual reopening of businesses inCalifornia and other states. After bottoming out in the second quarter of 2020, loss frequency has been increasing and is near pre-pandemic levels for some coverages and exceeds pre-pandemic levels for the comprehensive coverage due to a rise in vehicle thefts and property crimes. The severity of accidents, for both bodily injury and the cost to repair vehicles, has increased following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic primarily due to a higher percentage of high-speed serious accidents on less congested roads and freeways. The cost to repair vehicles may remain high due to supply chain and labor force issues exacerbated by the high overall inflation rate. The COVID-19 pandemic also created more uncertainty, and the total effect on losses occurring during the COVID-19 era will not be known for several years. The Company expects more late reported claims and a prolonged settlement period, particularly for bodily injury claims. Many courts have been closed, and claimants may have been reluctant to seek medical treatments due to the pandemic. The recent increases in loss frequency combined with sustained high loss severity have negatively impacted the Company's results of operations, when compared to other quarters following the first quarter of 2020, and the Company has submitted private passenger automobile rate filings in many states requesting rate increases. Many businesses have been required by state and local governments to cease or substantially reduce operations, and have suffered severe financial losses as a result. Many of these businesses have submitted claims to their insurers under the business interruption coverage of their commercial property policies, resulting in coverage disputes in many states. While the Company does insure a modest number of businesses with this business interruption coverage, these pandemic-related losses are not covered under the Company's policy terms and conditions. The Company's business interruption, or "business income" coverage, requires a "direct physical loss" to the property that results in suspension of operations, such as a fire or water loss. The coverage is not triggered under the present circumstances. Most of the Company's policies also contain an exclusion for losses caused directly or indirectly by "virus or bacteria." This exclusion was adopted by many insurers after the SARS outbreak of 2003-2004, upon recognition that such a pandemic could result in losses far exceeding the capacity of individual insurers and the private insurance market as a whole. The Company does not believe it has any material exposure to business interruption claims. 34 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Due to disruptions in the equity and fixed maturity securities markets following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Company's investment portfolio, along with the overall securities in the financial markets, substantially declined in value in the first quarter of 2020; however, its investment portfolio recovered in value during the subsequent quarters as the overall securities markets improved. InMarch 2020 , theFederal Open Market Committee ("FOMC") unveiled a set of aggressive measures to cushion the economic impact of the global COVID-19 crisis, including, among others, cutting the federal funds rate by 100 basis points to a range of 0.00% to 0.25% and establishing a series of emergency credit facilities in an effort to support the flow of credit in the economy, easing liquidity pressure and calming market turmoil. While volatility in the financial markets remains elevated, overall market liquidity concerns have eased following the actions taken by theFOMC . The Company believes that it will continue to have sufficient liquidity to support its business operations during the COVID-19 crisis and beyond without the forced sale of investments, based on its existing cash and short-term investments, future cash flows from operations, and$75 million of undrawn credit in its revolving credit facility. OnMarch 27, 2020 , the President ofthe United States signed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security ("CARES") Act, a substantial tax-and-spending package intended to provide economic stimulus to address the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The CARES Act includes, among other items, cash payments to individuals as well as emergency grants and forgivable loans to small businesses, if they meet certain criteria. OnMarch 11, 2021 , the President ofthe United States signed the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, a$1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill, to provide additional relief to address the continued impact of COVID-19 on the economy, public health, state and local governments, individuals, and businesses. To the extent the Company's existing or potential policyholders and business partners are aided by such relief programs, the negative impact of the pandemic on its results of operations may be mitigated. The Company will continue to monitor the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of the CARES Act, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and any additional legislative relief. The extent of the impact of the pandemic on the Company's business and financial results will depend largely on future developments, including the duration of the pandemic, its impact on capital and financial markets and the related impact on consumer confidence and spending, the success of broad vaccine rollouts in theU.S. and around the world, and the impact of actions taken in response to new variants of COVID-19, most of which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted. As the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, additional impacts may arise. B. Regulatory and Legal Matters The process for implementing rate changes varies by state. For more detailed information related to insurance rate approval, see "Item 1. Business-Regulation." During 2021, the Company implemented rate changes in 11 states. InCalifornia , the following rate increase was approved by the California DOI for lines of insurance business that exceeded 5% of the Company's total net premiums earned in 2021:
?In
The Company primarily sells itsCalifornia private passenger automobile insurance business through two of its insurance subsidiaries, MIC and CAIC. MIC accepts only "Good Drivers" (as defined in the California Insurance Code) and provides lower rates, but its policy has narrower coverages than the CAIC policy. At the request of the California DOI, the Company intends to broaden the coverages in MIC, making the coverages the same as in CAIC. Once the coverages are standardized across these two insurance subsidiaries, the Company will automatically move qualified Good Drivers from CAIC to MIC. Good Drivers accounted for approximately 87% of the Company'sCalifornia voluntary private passenger automobile policies-in-force atDecember 31, 2021 , while higher risk categories accounted for approximately 13%. The implementation of the transfer of qualified Good Drivers from CAIC to MIC began inJanuary 2022 and is expected to reduce the Company's annualCalifornia private passenger automobile insurance premiums earned by approximately$25 million over a 24-month period beginning in the first quarter of 2022. The increase in losses resulting from broadening the coverages in MIC is not estimable, but is not expected to be material. InJuly 2019 , the governor ofCalifornia signed a bill that created a$21 billion fund (the "California Wildfire Fund ") to help then bankrupt Pacific Gas and Electric Company ("PG&E") and the state's other investor-owned utility companies cover liabilities arising from future wildfires caused by their equipment. The bill requires investor-owned utility companies to fund half of theCalifornia Wildfire Fund . The other half is to be funded by surcharges paid by ratepayers across the state. OnJuly 1, 2020 , PG&E made an announcement that it emerged out of bankruptcy and made an initial deposit of approximately$5 billion 35 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- to theCalifornia Wildfire Fund . It is expected that the Company and other insurers will be reimbursed for some portion of the claims paid for its policyholders if it is determined that a wildfire is caused by equipment failure. The announcement also confirmed that PG&E funded theSubrogation Trust Fund with$11 billion , which was set up to reimburse insurance companies and other entities that paid claims by individuals and businesses related to wildfires that occurred in the recent past years prior toJuly 1, 2020 . The Company received approximately$23 million , net of fees, in 2020 from theSubrogation Trust Fund . However, this subrogation recovery was for losses and loss adjustment expenses previously ceded to the Company's reinsurers, and therefore the recovery did not reduce losses and loss adjustment expenses net of reinsurance. The benefit to the Company recognized in 2020, net of reinsurance and before taxes, was approximately$3 million , representing a reduction to reinstatement premiums previously recognized. In addition, the Company received approximately$0.8 million , net of fees, in 2021 from theSubrogation Trust Fund . The benefit to the Company recognized in 2021 before taxes was the full$0.8 million , as this recovery was not related to losses and loss adjustment expenses previously ceded to the Company's reinsurers. The Company is, from time to time, named as a defendant in various lawsuits or regulatory actions incidental to its insurance business. The majority of lawsuits brought against the Company relate to insurance claims that arise in the normal course of business and are reserved for through the reserving process. For a discussion of the Company's reserving methods, see "Critical Accounting Estimates" below and Note 1. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in "Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." The Company establishes reserves for non-insurance claims related lawsuits, regulatory actions, and other contingencies when the Company believes a loss is probable and is able to estimate its potential exposure. For material loss contingencies believed to be reasonably possible, the Company also discloses the nature of the loss contingency and an estimate of the possible loss, range of loss, or a statement that such an estimate cannot be made. While actual losses may differ from the amounts recorded and the ultimate outcome of the Company's pending actions is generally not yet determinable, the Company does not believe that the ultimate resolution of currently pending legal or regulatory proceedings, either individually or in the aggregate, will have a material adverse effect on its financial condition or cash flows.
For a discussion of additional regulatory and legal matters, see Note 18. Commitments and Contingencies of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in "Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." In all cases, the Company vigorously defends itself unless a reasonable settlement appears appropriate.
C. Critical Accounting Estimates
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves ("Loss Reserves")
Preparation of the Company's consolidated financial statements requires
management's judgment and estimates. The most significant is the estimate of
loss reserves. Estimating loss reserves is a difficult process as many factors
can ultimately affect the final settlement of a claim and, therefore, the loss
reserve that is required. A key assumption in estimating loss reserves is the
degree to which the historical data used to analyze reserves will be predictive
of ultimate claim costs on incurred claims. Changes in the regulatory and legal
environments, results of litigation, medical costs, the cost of repair
materials, and labor rates, among other factors, can impact this assumption. In
addition, time can be a critical part of reserving determinations since the
longer the span between the incidence of a loss and the payment or settlement of
a claim, the more variable the ultimate settlement amount could be. Accordingly,
short-tail liability claims, such as property damage claims, tend to be more
reasonably predictable than long-tail liability claims.
The Company calculates a loss reserve point estimate rather than a range. There
is inherent uncertainty with estimates and this is particularly true with loss
reserve estimates. This uncertainty comes from many factors which may include
changes in claims reporting and settlement patterns, changes in the regulatory
and legal environments, uncertainty over inflation rates, and uncertainty for
unknown items. The Company does not make specific provisions for these
uncertainties, rather it considers them in establishing its loss reserve by
looking at historical patterns and trends and projecting these out to current
loss reserves. The underlying factors and assumptions that serve as the basis
for preparing the loss reserve estimate include paid and incurred loss
development factors, expected average costs per claim, inflation trends,
expected loss ratios, industry data, and other relevant information.
The Company also engages independent actuarial consultants to review the
Company's loss reserves and to provide the annual actuarial opinions required
under state statutory accounting requirements. The Company analyzes loss
reserves quarterly primarily using the incurred loss, paid loss, average
severity coupled with the claim count development methods, and the generalized
linear model ("GLM") described below. When deciding among methods to use, the
Company evaluates the credibility of each method based on the maturity of the
data available and the claims settlement practices for each particular line of
insurance business or coverage within a line of insurance business. The Company
may also evaluate qualitative factors such
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as known changes in laws or legal rulings that could affect claims handling or
other external environmental factors or internal factors that could affect the
settlement of claims. When establishing the loss reserve, the Company generally
analyzes the results from all of the methods used rather than relying on a
single method. While these methods are designed to determine the ultimate losses
on claims under the Company's policies, there is inherent uncertainty in all
actuarial models since they use historical data to project outcomes. The Company
believes that the techniques it uses provide a reasonable basis in estimating
loss reserves.
•The incurred loss method analyzes historical incurred case loss (case reserves
plus paid losses) development to estimate ultimate losses. The Company applies
development factors against current case incurred losses by accident period to
calculate ultimate expected losses. The Company believes that the incurred loss
method provides a reasonable basis for evaluating ultimate losses, particularly
in the Company's larger, more established lines of insurance business which have
a long operating history.
•The paid loss method analyzes historical payment patterns to estimate the
amount of losses yet to be paid.
•The average severity method analyzes historical loss payments and/or incurred
losses divided by closed claims and/or total claims to calculate an estimated
average cost per claim. From this, the expected ultimate average cost per claim
can be estimated. The average severity method coupled with the claim count
development method provides meaningful information regarding inflation and
frequency trends that the Company believes is useful in establishing loss
reserves. The claim count development method analyzes historical claim count
development to estimate future incurred claim count development for current
claims. The Company applies these development factors against current claim
counts by accident period to calculate ultimate expected claim counts.
•The GLM determines an average severity for each percentile of claims that have
been closed as a percentage of estimated ultimate claims. The average severities
are applied to open claims to estimate the amount of losses yet to be paid. The
GLM utilizes operational time, determined as a percentile of claims closed
rather than a finite calendar period, which neutralizes the effect of changes in
the timing of claims handling.
The Company analyzes catastrophe losses separately from non-catastrophe
losses. For catastrophe losses, the Company generally determines claim counts
based on claims reported and development expectations from previous catastrophes
and applies an average expected loss per claim based on loss reserves
established by adjusters and average losses on previous similar catastrophes.
For catastrophe losses on individual properties that are expected to be total
losses, the Company typically establishes reserves at the policy limits.
There are many factors that can cause variability between the ultimate expected
loss and the actual developed loss. While there are certainly other factors, the
Company believes that the following three items tend to create the most
variability between expected losses and actual losses.
(1) Inflation
For the Company's
•BI reserves-approximately 70% of total reserves
•Material damage ("MD") reserves, including collision and comprehensive property
damage-approximately 10% of total reserves
•Loss adjustment expense reserves-approximately 20% of total reserves.
Loss development on MD reserves is generally insignificant because MD claims are
generally settled in a shorter period than BI claims. The majority of the loss
adjustment expense reserves are estimated costs to defend BI claims, which tend
to require longer periods of time to settle as compared to MD claims.
BI loss reserves are generally the most difficult to estimate because they take
longer to close than other coverages. BI coverage in the Company's policies
includes injuries sustained by any person other than the insured, except in the
case of uninsured or underinsured motorist BI coverage, which covers damages to
the insured for BI caused by uninsured or underinsured motorists. BI payments
are primarily for medical costs and general damages.
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The following table presents the typical closure patterns of BI claims in the
Company's
% of Total
Claims Closed Dollars Paid
BI claims closed in the accident year reported 37% 12%
BI claims closed one year after the accident year reported 79% 51%
BI claims closed two years after the accident year reported 93% 75%
BI claims closed three years after the accident year reported 97% 88%
BI claims closed in the accident year reported are generally the smaller and
less complex claims that settle for approximately $6,000 to $7,000 on average,
whereas the total average settlement, once all claims are closed for a
particular accident year, is approximately $16,000 to $22,000 . The Company
creates incurred and paid loss triangles to estimate ultimate losses utilizing
historical payment and reserving patterns and evaluates the results of this
analysis against its frequency and severity analysis to establish BI loss
reserves. The Company adjusts development factors to account for inflation
trends it sees in loss severity. As a larger proportion of claims from an
accident year are settled, there emerges a higher degree of certainty for the
loss reserves established for that accident year. At December 31, 2021 , the
accident years that are most likely to develop are the 2019 through 2021
accident years; however, it is possible that older accident years could develop
as well.
In general, the Company expects that historical claims trends will continue with
costs tending to increase, which is generally consistent with historical data,
and therefore the Company believes that it is reasonable to expect inflation to
continue. Many potential factors can affect the BI inflation rate, including
changes in claims handling process, changes in statutes and regulations, the
number of litigated files, increased use of medical procedures such as MRIs and
epidural injections, general economic factors, timeliness of claims
adjudication, vehicle safety, weather patterns, social inflation, and gasoline
prices, among other factors; however, the magnitude of the impact of such
factors on the inflation rate is unknown.
The Company began experiencing a significant decrease in loss frequency in March
of 2020 primarily resulting from the shelter-in-place orders issued by state and
local governments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, although it began to
increase as more drivers returned to the road following the gradual reopening of
businesses in California and other states. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic
created greater uncertainty in the reserve estimates: A greater number of large
claims may emerge from the 2020 and 2021 accident years compared to the prior
accident years as claimants may be reluctant to go to a medical provider due to
the pandemic but subsequently seek monetary compensation to ease the economic
hardship attributable to the pandemic. A lower percentage of minor accidents
with lower average severity experienced during the pandemic are likely to push
the total average severity higher. There is reduced subrogation potential due to
increased single-vehicle accidents during 2020 and 2021. Automobile parts and
labor costs will be higher if further supply shortages emerge due to the
prolonged pandemic. Based on these factors and uncertainty attributable to the
pandemic, the reserve estimates for the 2020 and 2021 accident years are subject
to a greater degree of variability.
The Company believes that it is reasonably possible that the
During the years 2017 through 2021, the changes in the loss severity amounts for the three preceding accident years from the prior year amounts (BI severity variance from prior year) have ranged as follows:
High Low
Immediate preceding accident year 2.0% (5.1)%
Second preceding accident year 7.5% 0.1%
Third preceding accident year 5.2% (1.0)%
38-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The following table presents the effects on theCalifornia automobile BI loss reserves for the 2021, 2020 and 2019 accident years based on possible variations in the severity recorded; however, the actual variations could be more or less than these amounts: California Automobile Bodily Injury Inflation Reserve Sensitivity Analysis (A) Pro-forma (B) Pro-forma severity if actual severity if actual Favorable loss Unfavorable loss Actual severity is lower by severity is higher by development if development if Recorded Implied 12% for 2021, 12% for 2021, actual severity is actual severity is Accident Number of Claims Severity at Inflation Rate 8% for 2020, and 8% for 2020, and less than recorded more than recorded Year Expected12/31/2021 Recorded (1) 6% for 2019 6% for 2019 (Column A) (Column B) 2021 20,503 (2)$ 21,796 (2) 3.9 % (2) $ 19,180 $ 24,412$ 53,636,000 $ (53,636,000) 2020 18,681 (2)$ 20,972 (2) 19.5 % (2) $ 19,294 $ 22,650$ 31,347,000 $ (31,347,000) 2019 29,240$ 17,543 11.6 % $ 16,490 $ 18,596$ 30,790,000 $ (30,790,000) 2018 28,497$ 15,722 - - - - - Total Loss
Development-Favorable (Unfavorable)
(115,773,000)
___________
(1) Implied inflation rate is calculated by dividing the difference between the current and prior year actual recorded severity by the prior year actual recorded severity. The Company believes that severity increases are caused by litigation, medical costs, inflation, and increased utilization of medical procedures. (2) The Company began experiencing a significant decrease in loss frequency in March of 2020 resulting from the shelter-in-place orders issued by state and local governments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, although it began to increase as more drivers returned to the road following the gradual reopening of businesses inCalifornia and other states., which led to the smaller number of claims expected for the 2020 and 2021 accident years compared to the prior accident years. Conversely, a higher percentage of high-speed serious accidents on less congested roads combined with a lower percentage of minor accidents had the effect of increasing the actual recorded severity across the total claims population for the 2020 and 2021 accident years compared to the prior accident years. (2)Claim Count Development The Company generally estimates ultimate claim counts for an accident period based on development of claim counts in prior accident periods. Typically, almost every claim is reported within one year following the end of an accident year and at that point the Company has a high degree of certainty as to the ultimate claim count. There are many factors that can affect the number of claims reported after an accident period ends. These factors include changes in weather patterns, a change in the number of litigated files, the number of automobiles insured, and whether the last day of the accident period falls on a weekday or a weekend. However, the Company is unable to determine which, if any, of the factors actually impact the number of claims reported and, if so, by what magnitude. The COVID-19 pandemic created greater uncertainty in the claims count development for the 2020 and 2021 accident years. The Company believes that the reduced services for non-critical cases at medical facilities and fear of infection during the pandemic combined with the economic hardship caused by the pandemic are likely to increase the late reporting of claims seeking settlement for monetary compensation. AtDecember 31, 2021 , there were 19,346California automobile BI claims reported for the 2021 accident year and the Company estimates that these are expected to ultimately grow by approximately 6.0%. The Company believes that while actual development in recent years has ranged approximately from 3% to 7%, it is reasonable to expect that the range of the development for the 2021 accident year is subject to greater variability due to uncertainty related to the pandemic and could be as great as between 0% and 10%, as it expects an increase in late reporting of claims given the high level of uncertainty in claims reporting patterns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, actual development may be more or less than the expected range. 39
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The following table presents the effects on loss development of different claim
counts within the broader possible range at
California Automobile Bodily Injury Claim Count Reserve Sensitivity Analysis
Amount Recorded Total Expected Total Expected
at 12/31/2021 at Approximately 6.0% Amount If Claim Amount If Claim
Claim Count Count Development is Count Development is
2021 Accident Year Claims Reported Development 0% 10%
Claim count 19,346 20,503 19,346 21,281
Approximate average cost per claim Not meaningful $ 21,796 $ 21,796 $ 21,796
Total dollars Not meaningful $ 446,883,000 $ 421,665,000 $ 463,841,000
Total Loss Development-Favorable (Unfavorable) $ 25,218,000 $
(16,958,000)
(3) Unexpected Losses From Older Accident Periods
Unexpected losses are generally not provided for in the current loss reserve because they are not known or expected and tend to be unquantifiable. Once known, the Company establishes a provision for the losses, but it is not possible to provide any meaningful sensitivity analysis as to the potential size of any unexpected losses. These losses can be caused by many factors, including unexpected legal interpretations of coverage, ineffective claims handling, regulations extending claims reporting periods, assumption of unexpected or unknown risks, adverse court decisions as well as many unknown factors. During 2021, the Company incurred losses totaling approximately$8 million on two separate large claims from accident periods prior to 2018. These are related to provisions made for the likelihood of adverse legal outcomes based on the latest information available. Unexpected losses are fairly infrequent but can have a large impact on the Company's losses. To mitigate this risk, the Company has established claims handling and review procedures. However, it is still possible that these procedures will not prove entirely effective, and the Company may have material unexpected losses in future periods. It is also possible that the Company has not identified and established a sufficient loss reserve for all material unexpected losses occurring in the older accident years, even though a comprehensive claims file review was undertaken. The Company may experience additional development on these loss reserves. Discussion of Losses and Loss Reserves and PriorPeriod Loss Development AtDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, the Company recorded its point estimate of approximately$2.23 billion and$1.99 billion ($2.19 billion and$1.94 billion , net of reinsurance), respectively, in loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, which included approximately$1.03 billion and$0.89 billion ($1.01 billion and$0.86 billion , net of reinsurance), respectively, of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities ("IBNR"). IBNR includes estimates, based upon past experience, of ultimate developed costs, which may differ from case estimates, unreported claims that occurred on or prior toDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, and estimated future payments for reopened claims. Management believes that the liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses is adequate to cover the ultimate net cost of losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred to date; however, since the provisions are necessarily based upon estimates, the ultimate liability may be more or less than such provisions. The Company evaluates its loss reserves quarterly. When management determines that the estimated ultimate claim cost requires a decrease for previously reported accident years, favorable development occurs and a reduction in losses and loss adjustment expenses is reported in the current period. If the estimated ultimate claim cost requires an increase for previously reported accident years, unfavorable development occurs and an increase in losses and loss adjustment expenses is reported in the current period. For 2021, the Company reported favorable development of approximately$26 million on the 2020 and prior accident years' loss and loss adjustment expense reserves. The favorable development in 2021 was primarily attributable to lower than estimated losses and loss adjustment expenses in the homeowners and private passenger automobile lines of insurance business, partially offset by unfavorable development in the commercial automobile and commercial property lines of insurance business. The Company recorded catastrophe losses net of reinsurance of approximately$104 million in 2021. Catastrophe losses due to the events that occurred during 2021 totaled approximately$109 million , with no reinsurance benefits used for these losses. The majority of the 2021 catastrophe losses resulted from the deep freeze and other extreme weather events inTexas andOklahoma , rainstorms, wildfires and winter storms inCalifornia , and the impact of Hurricane Ida inNew Jersey andNew York . These losses were partially offset by favorable development of approximately$5 million on prior years' catastrophe losses. 40 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Year Ended
Revenues
Net premiums earned and net premiums written in 2021 increased 5.2% and 6.8%, respectively, from 2020. The Company's net premiums earned and written in 2020 were each reduced by approximately$128 million due to premium refunds and credits to its eligible policyholders associated with the "Mercury Giveback" program for reduced driving and business activities following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The increase in net premiums earned and written was primarily due to these premium refunds and credits in 2020, higher average premiums per policy arising from rate increases in theCalifornia homeowners line of insurance business, and increases in the number of policies written outside ofCalifornia , partially offset by a decrease in the number of private passenger automobile and homeowners policies written inCalifornia . Excluding premium refunds and credits in 2020, net premiums earned and net premiums written in 2021 increased 1.6% and 3.1%, respectively, from 2020. Net premiums earned included ceded premiums earned of$65.0 million and$56.2 million in 2021 and 2020, respectively. Net premiums written included ceded premiums written of$65.5 million and$50.6 million in 2021 and 2020, respectively. The increase in ceded premiums earned and written resulted mostly from higher reinsurance coverage and rates and growth in the covered book of business. Net premiums earned, a GAAP measure, represents the portion of net premiums written that is recognized as revenue in the financial statements for the periods presented and earned on a pro-rata basis over the term of the policies. Net premiums written is a non-GAAP financial measure which represents the premiums charged on policies issued during a fiscal period less any applicable reinsurance. Net premiums written is a statutory measure designed to determine production levels. The following is a reconciliation of total net premiums earned to net premiums written: Year Ended December 31, 2021 2020 (Amounts in thousands) Net premiums earned$ 3,741,948 $ 3,555,635 Change in net unearned premiums 113,421 55,908 Net premiums written$ 3,855,369 $ 3,611,543 Expenses
Loss and expense ratios are used to interpret the underwriting experience of property and casualty insurance companies. The following table presents the Company's consolidated loss, expense, and combined ratios determined in accordance with GAAP:
Year Ended December 31,
2021 2020
Loss ratio 73.8 % 67.4 %
Expense ratio 24.5 % 25.7 %
Combined ratio 98.3 % 93.1 %
Loss ratio is calculated by dividing losses and loss adjustment expenses by net
premiums earned. The Company's loss ratio was affected by favorable development
of approximately $26 million and unfavorable development of approximately $23
million on prior accident years' loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for
the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The favorable
development in 2021 was primarily attributable to lower than estimated losses
and loss adjustment expenses in the homeowners and private passenger automobile
lines of insurance business, partially offset by unfavorable development in the
commercial automobile and commercial property lines of insurance business, while
the unfavorable development in 2020 was primarily attributable to higher than
estimated losses and loss adjustment expenses in the homeowners and commercial
automobile lines of insurance business, partially offset by favorable
development in the private passenger automobile line of insurance business.
41
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The 2021 loss ratio was negatively impacted by a total of approximately $109
million of catastrophe losses, excluding favorable development of approximately
$5 million on prior years' catastrophe losses, primarily due to the deep freeze
and other extreme weather events in Texas and Oklahoma , rainstorms, wildfires
and winter storms in California , and the impact of Hurricane Ida in New Jersey
and New York . The 2020 loss ratio was negatively impacted by a total of
approximately $69 million of catastrophe losses, excluding favorable development
of approximately $5 million on prior years' catastrophe losses, primarily due to
wildfires and windstorms in California and extreme weather events outside of
California .
Excluding the effect of estimated prior periods' loss development and
catastrophe losses, the loss ratio was 71.5% and 64.8% for the years ended
December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The increase in the loss ratio was
primarily due to an increase in loss frequency and severity in the private
passenger automobile line of insurance business, partially offset by higher
average premiums per policy arising from rate increases in the California
homeowners line of insurance business and a decrease in net premiums earned in
2020 related to premium refunds and credits under the "Mercury Giveback" program
as described above. After bottoming out in the second quarter of 2020, loss
frequency has been increasing and is near pre-pandemic levels for some coverages
and exceeds pre-pandemic levels for the comprehensive coverage due to a rise in
vehicle thefts and property crimes. Automobile loss severity is high due to
inflationary pressures currently affecting the economy.
Expense ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of policy acquisition costs and
other operating expenses by net premiums earned. The decrease in the expense
ratio is largely due to a decrease in net premiums earned in 2020 related to
premium refunds and credits under the "Mercury Giveback" program as described
above, without a corresponding decrease in policy acquisition costs and other
operating expenses. The Company did not recoup commissions from its agents on
the premiums returned to its eligible policyholders under the "Mercury Giveback"
program. In addition, expenses for profitability-related accruals and allowance
for credit losses on premiums receivable decreased, partially offset by
increases in advertising and legal expenses.
Combined ratio is equal to loss ratio plus expense ratio and is the key measure
of underwriting performance traditionally used in the property and casualty
insurance industry. A combined ratio under 100% generally reflects profitable
underwriting results; a combined ratio over 100% generally reflects unprofitable
underwriting results.
Income tax expense was $51.4 million and $83.9 million for the years ended
December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The $32.5 million decrease in income
tax expense was mainly due to a significant decrease in pre-tax income of $159.2
million .
The Company's effective income tax rate can be affected by several factors.
These generally include large changes in fully-taxable income including net
realized investment gains or losses, tax-exempt investment income, nondeductible
expenses, and periodically, non-routine tax items such as adjustments to
unrecognized tax benefits related to tax uncertainties. Tax-exempt investment
income of approximately $74 million coupled with pre-tax income of approximately
$299 million resulted in an effective tax rate of 17.2%, below the statutory tax
rate of 21%, in 2021, and tax-exempt investment income of approximately $78
million coupled with pre-tax income of approximately $459 million resulted in an
effective tax rate of 18.3% in 2020.
Investments
The following table presents the investment results of the Company:
Year Ended December 31,
2021 2020
(Amounts in thousands)
Average invested assets at cost (1)
Net investment income (2)
Before income taxes $ 129,727 $ 134,858
After income taxes $ 115,216 $ 120,043
Average annual yield on investments (2)
Before income taxes 2.8 % 3.1 %
After income taxes 2.5 % 2.8 %
Net realized investment gains $ 111,658 $ 85,731
__________
(1)Fixed maturities and short-term bonds at amortized cost; equities and other
short-term investments at cost. Average invested assets at cost are based on the
monthly amortized cost of the invested assets for each period.
42
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(2)Net investment income before and after income taxes decreased primarily due
to a lower average yield on investments, partially offset by higher average
invested assets. Average annual yield on investments before and after income
taxes decreased primarily due to the maturity and replacement of higher yielding
investments purchased when market interest rates were higher with lower yielding
investments, as a result of decreasing market interest rates.
The following tables present the components of net realized investment gains (losses) included in net income:
Year Ended December 31, 2021
Gains (Losses) Recognized in Income
Changes in
Sales fair value Total
(Amounts in thousands)
Net realized investment gains (losses):
Fixed maturity securities (1)(2) $ (4,384) $ (39,649) $ (44,033)
Equity securities (1)(3) 45,235 107,701 152,936
Short-term investments (1) (145) (141) (286)
Note receivable (1) - (4) (4)
Options sold 2,964 81 3,045
Total $ 43,670 $ 67,988 $ 111,658 Year Ended
Gains (Losses) Recognized in Income
Changes in
Sales fair value Total
(Amounts in thousands)
Net realized investment gains (losses):
Fixed maturity securities (1)(2) $ (2,412) $ 41,394 $ 38,982
Equity securities (1)(3) (4,543) 32,232 27,689
Short-term investments (1) (2,292) (1,014) (3,306)
Note receivable (1) - 60 60
Options sold 22,322 (16) 22,306
Total $ 13,075 $ 72,656 $ 85,731
__________
(1)The changes in fair value of the investment portfolio and note receivable
resulted from the application of the fair value option.
(2)The decrease in fair value of fixed maturity securities in 2021 was primarily
due to increases in market interest rates, and the increase in fair value of
fixed maturity securities in 2020 was primarily due to decreases in market
interest rates.
(3)The increases in fair value of equity securities in 2021 and 2020 were
primarily due to the overall improvement in equity markets.
43
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Net Income
Year Ended December 31,
2021 2020
(Amounts in thousands, except per share data)
Net income $ 247,937 $ 374,607
Basic average shares outstanding 55,368 55,358
Diluted average shares outstanding 55,374 55,358
Basic Per Share Data:
Net income $ 4.48 $ 6.77
Net realized investment gains, net of tax $ 1.59 $ 1.22
Diluted Per Share Data:
Net income $ 4.48 $ 6.77
Net realized investment gains, net of tax $ 1.59 $ 1.22
Year Ended
See "Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" of the Company's Form 10-K for the year endedDecember 31, 2020 for a discussion of changes in its results of operations from the year endedDecember 31, 2019 to the year endedDecember 31, 2020 . LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES A. General The Company is largely dependent upon dividends received from its insurance subsidiaries to pay debt service costs and to make distributions to its shareholders. Under current insurance law, the Insurance Companies are entitled to pay ordinary dividends of approximately$252 million in 2022 toMercury General . The Insurance Companies paidMercury General ordinary dividends of$191 million during 2021. As ofDecember 31, 2021 ,Mercury General had approximately$186 million in investments and cash that could be utilized to satisfy its direct holding company obligations. The principal sources of funds for the Insurance Companies are premiums, sales and maturity of invested assets, and dividend and interest income from invested assets. The principal uses of funds for the Insurance Companies are the payment of claims and related expenses, operating expenses, dividends toMercury General , and the purchase of investments.
B. Cash Flows
The Company has generated positive cash flow from operations since the public offering of its common stock inNovember 1985 . The Company does not attempt to match the duration and timing of asset maturities with those of liabilities; rather, it manages its portfolio with a view towards maximizing total return with an emphasis on after-tax income. With combined cash and short-term investments of$475.7 million atDecember 31, 2021 as well as a$75 million revolving credit facility, the Company believes its cash flow from operations is adequate to satisfy its liquidity requirements without the forced sale of investments. Investment maturities are also available to meet the Company's liquidity needs. However, the Company operates in a rapidly evolving and often unpredictable business environment that may change the timing or amount of expected future cash receipts and expenditures. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that the Company's sources of funds will be sufficient to meet its liquidity needs or that the Company will not be required to raise additional funds to meet those needs or for future business expansion, through the sale of equity or debt securities or from credit facilities with lending institutions. Net cash provided by operating activities for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 was$501.6 million , a decrease of$104.0 million compared to the year endedDecember 31, 2020 . The decrease was primarily due to increases in payments for losses and loss adjustment expenses, underwriting expenses and income taxes, and a decrease in collections from reinsurers on reinsurance recoverables, partially offset by an increase in premium collections. The Company utilized the cash provided by operating activities during the year endedDecember 31, 2021 primarily for the net purchases of investment securities and payment of dividends to its shareholders. The average annual net cash provided by operating activities for the past 10 years was 44 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
approximately
The following table presents the estimated fair value of fixed maturity
securities at
Fixed Maturity Securities
(Amounts in thousands)
Due in one year or less $ 403,269
Due after one year through two years 227,350
Due after two years through three years 105,851
Due after three years through four years 166,889
Due after four years through five years 291,789
$ 1,195,148
See "D. Debt" below for cash flow related to outstanding debt.
C. Invested Assets Portfolio Composition An important component of the Company's financial results is the return on its investment portfolio. The Company's investment strategy emphasizes safety of principal and consistent income generation, within a total return framework. The investment strategy has historically focused on maximizing after-tax yield with a primary emphasis on maintaining a well-diversified, investment grade, fixed income portfolio to support the underlying liabilities and achieve return on capital and profitable growth. The Company believes that investment yield is maximized by selecting assets that perform favorably on a long-term basis and by disposing of certain assets to enhance after-tax yield and minimize the potential effect of downgrades and defaults. The Company believes that this strategy enables the optimal investment performance necessary to sustain investment income over time. The Company's portfolio management approach utilizes a market risk and consistent asset allocation strategy as the primary basis for the allocation of interest sensitive, liquid and credit assets as well as for determining overall below investment grade exposure and diversification requirements. Within the ranges set by the asset allocation strategy, tactical investment decisions are made in consideration of prevailing market conditions.
The following table presents the composition of the total investment portfolio
of the Company at
Cost(1) Fair Value
(Amounts in thousands)
Fixed maturity securities:
U.S. government bonds$ 13,082
Municipal securities 2,715,578
2,843,221
Mortgage-backed securities 137,384 137,002
Corporate securities 529,377 523,853
Collateralized loan obligations 312,928 314,153
Other asset-backed securities 201,431 200,209
3,909,780 4,031,523
Equity securities:
Common stock 561,381 797,024
Non-redeemable preferred stock 64,429
65,501
Private equity funds measured at net asset value (2) 128,726
108,414
754,536 970,939
Short-term investments 141,206 140,127
Total investments $ 4,805,522 $ 5,142,589
__________
(1)Fixed maturities and short-term bonds at amortized cost and equities and
other short-term investments at cost.
(2)The fair value is measured using the net asset value practical expedient. See
Note 4. Fair Value Measurements, of the
45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in "Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data" for additional information.
AtDecember 31, 2021 , 46.7% of the Company's total investment portfolio at fair value and 59.5% of its total fixed maturity investments at fair value were invested in tax-exempt state and municipal bonds. Equity holdings consist of non-redeemable preferred stocks, dividend-bearing common stocks on which dividend income is partially tax-sheltered by the 50% corporate dividend received deduction, and private equity funds. AtDecember 31, 2021 , 87.7% of short-term investments consisted of highly rated short-duration securities redeemable on a daily or weekly basis.Fixed Maturity Securities and Short-Term Investments Fixed maturity securities include debt securities, which may have fixed or variable principal payment schedules, may be held for indefinite periods of time, and may be used as a part of the Company's asset/liability strategy or sold in response to changes in interest rates, anticipated prepayments, risk/reward characteristics, liquidity needs, tax planning considerations, or other economic factors. Short-term investments include money market accounts, options, and short-term bonds that are highly rated short duration securities and redeemable within one year. A primary exposure for the fixed maturity securities is interest rate risk. The longer the duration, the more sensitive the asset is to market interest rate fluctuations. As assets with longer maturity dates tend to produce higher current yields, the Company's historical investment philosophy has resulted in a portfolio with a moderate duration. The Company's portfolio is heavily weighted in investment grade tax-exempt municipal bonds. Fixed maturity securities purchased by the Company typically have call options attached, which further reduce the duration of the asset as interest rates decline. The holdings, that are heavily weighted with high coupon issues, are expected to be called prior to maturity. Modified duration measures the length of time it takes, on average, to receive the present value of all the cash flows produced by a bond, including reinvestment of interest. As it measures four factors (maturity, coupon rate, yield and call terms) which determine sensitivity to changes in interest rates, modified duration is considered a better indicator of price volatility than simple maturity alone. The following table presents the maturities and durations of the Company's fixed maturity securities and short-term investments: December 31, 2021 December 31, 2020 (in years)Fixed Maturity Securities Nominal average maturity: excluding short-term investments 10.8 11.7 including short-term investments 10.4 10.6 Call-adjusted average maturities: excluding short-term investments 4.6 4.1 including short-term investments 4.5 3.7
Modified duration reflecting anticipated early calls: excluding short-term investments
3.5 3.4
including short-term investments 3.4 3.0
Short-Term Investments - -
Another exposure related to the fixed maturity securities is credit risk, which
is managed by maintaining a weighted-average portfolio credit quality rating of
A+, at fair value at December 31, 2021 , consistent with the average rating at
December 31, 2020 . The Company's municipal bond holdings, of which 84.4% were
tax exempt, represented 70.5% of its fixed maturity portfolio at December 31,
2021 , at fair value, and were broadly diversified geographically.
To calculate the weighted-average credit quality ratings as disclosed throughout
this Annual Report on Form 10-K, individual securities were weighted based on
fair value and a credit quality numeric score that was assigned to each
security's average of ratings assigned by nationally recognized securities
rating organizations.
Taxable holdings consist principally of investment grade issues. At December 31,
2021 , fixed maturity holdings rated below investment grade and non-rated bonds
totaled $7.1 million and $17.3 million , respectively, at fair value, and
represented
46
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0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, of total fixed maturity securities. The majority of
non-rated issues are a result of municipalities pre-funding and collateralizing
those issues with U.S. government securities with an implicit AAA equivalent
credit risk. At December 31, 2020 , fixed maturity holdings rated below
investment grade and non-rated bonds totaled $25.5 million and $38.4 million ,
respectively, at fair value, and represented 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively, of
total fixed maturity securities.
Credit ratings for the Company's fixed maturity portfolio were stable in 2021,
with 95.0% of fixed maturity securities at fair value experiencing no change in
their overall rating. 2.5% of fixed maturity securities at fair value
experienced upgrades in 2021, and approximately the same percentage experienced
downgrades.
47
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------The following table presents the credit quality ratings of the Company's fixed maturity securities by security type at fair value:
December 31, 2021
Total Fair
Security Type AAA(1) AA(1) A(1) BBB(1) Non-Rated/Other (1) Value(1)
(Dollars in thousands)U.S. government bonds: Treasuries$ 13,085 $ - $ - $ - $ -$ 13,085 Total 13,085 - - - - 13,085 100.0 % - % - % - % - % 100.0 % Municipal securities: Insured 62,676 190,089 126,455 42,317 2,572 424,109 Uninsured 108,486 858,375 1,250,644 184,813 16,794 2,419,112 Total 171,162 1,048,464 1,377,099 227,130 19,366 2,843,221 6.0 % 36.9 % 48.4 % 8.0 % 0.7 % 100.0 % Mortgage-backed securities: Commercial 13,581 6,304 5,295 - - 25,180 Agencies 752 - - - - 752 Non-agencies: Prime 18,980 89,888 64 - 547 109,479 Alt-A - 518 - 175 898 1,591 Total 33,313 96,710 5,359 175 1,445 137,002 24.3 % 70.6 % 3.9 % 0.1 % 1.1 % 100.0 % Corporate securities: Basic materials - - - - - - Communications - 182 - 6,494 - 6,676 Consumer, cyclical - 1,978 - 77,379 - 79,357 Consumer, non-cyclical - 10,042 17,581 20,311 - 47,934 Energy - 6,383 3,928 38,273 - 48,584 Financial - 24,640 69,418 71,667 3,500 169,225 Industrial - 436 51,990 82,185 - 134,611 Technology - - - 783 - 783 Utilities - - 20,519 16,164 - 36,683 Total - 43,661 163,436 313,256 3,500 523,853 - % 8.3 % 31.2 % 59.8 % 0.7 % 100.0 % Collateralized loan obligations: Corporate 42,466 86,233 185,454 - - 314,153 Total 42,466 86,233 185,454 - - 314,153 13.5 % 27.4 % 59.1 % - % - % 100.0 % Other asset-backed securities 34,904 77,001 58,133 30,171 - 200,209 17.4 % 38.5 % 29.0 % 15.1 % - % 100.0 % Total$ 294,930 $ 1,352,069 $ 1,789,481 $ 570,732 $ 24,311$ 4,031,523 7.3 % 33.5 % 44.4 % 14.2 % 0.6 % 100.0 % __________
(1)Intermediate ratings are included at each level (e.g., AA includes AA+, AA and AA-).
U.S. Government Bonds The Company had$13.1 million and$13.8 million , or 0.3% and 0.4% of its fixed maturity portfolio, at fair value, inU.S. government bonds atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. AtDecember 31, 2021 , Moody's and Fitch ratings forU.S. 48 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- government issued debt were Aaa andAAA , respectively, although a significant increase in government deficits and debt could lead to a downgrade. The Company understands that market participants continue to use rates of return onU.S. government debt as a risk-free rate and have continued to invest inU.S. Treasury securities. The modified duration of theU.S. government bonds portfolio reflecting anticipated early calls was 0.9 years and 1.0 years atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.Municipal Securities The Company had$2.84 billion and$2.79 billion , or 70.5% and 78.6% of its fixed maturity securities portfolio, at fair value, in municipal securities atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, of which$424.1 million and$377.0 million , respectively, were insured by bond insurers. The underlying ratings for insured municipal bonds have been factored into the average rating of the securities by the rating agencies with no significant disparity between the absolute bond ratings and the underlying credit ratings as ofDecember 31, 2021 and 2020. AtDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, 56.8% and 59.9% of the insured municipal securities, at fair value, most of which were investment grade, were insured by bond insurers that provide credit enhancement in addition to the ratings reflected by the financial strength of the underlying issuers. AtDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, the average rating of the Company's insured municipal securities was A+, which corresponded to the average rating of the investment grade bond insurers. The remaining 43.2% and 40.1% of insured municipal securities atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, were insured by non-rated or below investment grade bond insurers that the Company believes did not provide credit enhancement. The modified duration of the municipal securities portfolio reflecting anticipated early calls was 3.1 years and 3.4 years atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The Company considers the strength of the underlying credit as a buffer against potential market value declines which may result from future rating downgrades of the bond insurers. In addition, the Company has a long-term time horizon for its municipal bond holdings, which generally allows it to recover the full principal amounts upon maturity and avoid forced sales prior to maturity of bonds that have declined in market value due to the bond insurers' rating downgrades. Based on the uncertainty surrounding the financial condition of these insurers, it is possible that there will be additional downgrades to below investment grade ratings by the rating agencies in the future, and such downgrades could impact the estimated fair value of those municipal bonds.Mortgage-Backed Securities AtDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, the mortgage-backed securities portfolio of$137.0 million and$93.3 million , or 3.4% and 2.6% of the Company's fixed maturity securities portfolio, at fair value, was categorized as loans to "prime" residential and commercial real estate borrowers. The Company had holdings of$25.2 million and$17.6 million , at fair value, in commercial mortgage-backed securities atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The weighted-average rating of the entire mortgage backed securities portfolio was AA atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020. The modified duration of the mortgage-backed securities portfolio reflecting anticipated early calls was 7.9 years and 6.4 years atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.Corporate Securities AtDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, the company had corporate securities of$523.9 million and$241.4 million , or 13.0% and 6.8% of its fixed maturity securities portfolio, at fair value. The weighted-average rating was BBB+ and A- atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The modified duration reflecting anticipated early calls was 3.8 years and 1.7 years atDecember 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Collateralized Loan Obligations
The Company had collateralized loan obligations of
Other Asset-Backed Securities
The Company had other asset-backed securities of
49
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rating was AA- and AA+ at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The modified
duration reflecting anticipated early calls was 2.6 years and 1.6 years at
December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
Equity Securities
Equity holdings of $970.9 million and $803.9 million , at fair value, as of
December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, consisted of non-redeemable preferred
stocks, common stocks on which dividend income is partially tax-sheltered by the
50% corporate dividend received deduction, and private equity funds. The net
gains due to changes in fair value of the Company's equity portfolio were $107.7
million and $32.2 million in 2021 and 2020, respectively. The primary cause for
the increase in fair value of the Company's equity securities in 2021 and 2020
was the overall improvement in equity markets.
The Company's common stock allocation is intended to enhance the return of and
provide diversification for the total portfolio. At December 31, 2021 , 18.9% of
the total investment portfolio, at fair value, was held in equity securities,
compared to 17.0% at December 31, 2020 .
The following table presents the equity security portfolio by industry sector at
December 31,
2021 2020
Cost Fair Value Cost Fair Value
(Amounts in thousands)
Equity securities:
Basic materials $ 6,017 $ 7,766 $ 7,520 $ 8,262
Communications 29,906 35,458 28,970 34,806
Consumer, cyclical 63,596 100,364 60,604 78,822
Consumer, non-cyclical 61,366 78,911 64,067 77,071
Energy 67,816 68,065 51,338 37,163
Financial 116,921 160,002 81,602 102,924
Funds 173,634 168,947 143,947 137,143
Industrial 61,003 88,276 59,084 76,348
Technology 95,342 175,291 97,190 145,023
Utilities 78,935 87,859 100,828 106,289
$ 754,536 $ 970,939 $ 695,150 $ 803,851
D. Debt
The Company's debt consists of the following:
December 31,
Lender Interest Rate Expiration 2021 2020
(Amounts in thousands)
Senior unsecured notes(1) Publicly traded 4.40% March 15, 2027 $ 375,000 $ 375,000
Bank of America, LIBOR plus
Unsecured credit Wells Fargo Bank , 112.5-150.0 basis
facility(2) and U.S. Bank points March 31, 2026 - -
Total principal amount 375,000 375,000
Less unamortized discount
and debt issuance costs(3) 2,069 2,468
Total $ 372,931 $ 372,532
__________
(1) On March 8, 2017 , the Company completed a public debt offering issuing $375
million of senior notes. The notes are unsecured senior obligations of the
Company, with a 4.4% annual coupon payable on March 15 and September 15 of each
year commencing September 15, 2017 . These notes mature on March 15, 2027 . The
Company used the proceeds from the notes to pay off the total outstanding
balance of $320 million under the existing loan and credit facility agreements
and terminated the agreements on March 8, 2017 . The remainder of the proceeds
from the notes was used for general corporate purposes. The Company incurred
debt issuance costs of approximately $3.4 million , inclusive of underwriters'
fees. The
50
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notes were issued at a slight discount of 99.847% of par, resulting in the
effective annualized interest rate, including debt issuance costs, of
approximately 4.45%.
(2) On March 29, 2017 , the Company entered into an unsecured credit agreement
(the "2017 Credit Agreement") that provided for revolving loans of up to $50
million and was set to mature on March 29, 2022 . On March 31, 2021 , the Company
entered into an amended and restated credit agreement (the "Amended and Restated
Credit Agreement") that amended and restated the 2017 Credit Agreement. The
Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, among other things, extended the maturity
date of the loan that was the subject of the 2017 Credit Agreement to March 31,
2026 , added U.S. Bank as an additional lender, and increased the aggregate
commitments by all the lenders to $75 million from $50 million under the 2017
Credit Agreement. The interest rates on borrowings under the credit facility are
based on the Company's debt to total capital ratio and range from LIBOR plus
112.5 basis points when the ratio is under 20% to LIBOR plus 150.0 basis points
when the ratio is greater than or equal to 30%. Commitment fees for the undrawn
portions of the credit facility range from 12.5 basis points when the ratio is
under 20% to 22.5 basis points when the ratio is greater than or equal to 30%.
The debt to total capital ratio is expressed as a percentage of (a) consolidated
debt to (b) consolidated shareholders' equity plus consolidated debt. The
Company's debt to total capital ratio was 14.9% at December 31, 2021 , resulting
in a 12.5 basis point commitment fee on the $75 million undrawn portion of the
credit facility. As of February 15, 2022 , there have been no borrowings under
this facility.
(3) The unamortized discount and debt issuance costs are associated with the
publicly traded $375 million senior unsecured notes. These are amortized to
interest expense over the life of the notes, and the unamortized balance is
presented in the Company's consolidated balance sheets as a direct deduction
from the carrying amount of the debt. The unamortized debt issuance cost of
approximately $0.2 million associated with the $75 million unsecured revolving
credit facility maturing on March 31, 2026 is included in other assets in the
Company's consolidated balance sheets and amortized to interest expense over the
term of the credit facility.
The Company was in compliance with all of its financial covenants pertaining to
minimum statutory surplus, debt to total capital ratio, and RBC ratio under the
unsecured credit facility at December 31, 2021 .
For a further discussion, see Note 8. Notes Payable, of the Notes to
Consolidated Financial Statements in "Item 8. Financial Statements and
Supplementary Data."
E. Uses of Capital
Dividends
Cash returned to shareholders through dividends in 2021, 2020 and 2019 totaled
approximately $140.2 million , $139.6 million and $139.1 million , respectively.
On February 11, 2022 , the Board of Directors declared a $0.6350 quarterly
dividend payable on March 30, 2022 to shareholders of record on March 16, 2022 ,
with an expected payout of approximately $35 million . The Company currently
expects quarterly dividends to continue in future periods and intends to
increase its dividend on an annual basis, although the declaration and payment
of any future cash dividends are at the discretion and subject to the approval
of its Board of Directors. The decisions of the Company's Board of Directors
regarding the amount and payment of dividends will depend on many factors, such
as its financial condition, results of operations, capital requirements,
business conditions, debt service obligations, industry practice, legal
requirements, regulatory constraints, and other factors that its Board of
Directors may deem relevant. The Company expects to fund its future dividend
payments primarily with a combination of cash expected to be generated from
future operations and cash and short-term investments on hand.
For a further discussion, see Note 13. Dividends, of the Notes to Consolidated
Financial Statements in "Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data."
Capital Expenditures
The Company's capital expenditures were approximately $41.4 million , $40.0
million and $40.1 million for 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively, and they were
primarily related to improving the Company's information technology
infrastructure and corporate facilities. The Company expects the capital
spending for 2022 to be at a level similar to that for 2021 and intends to use
the capital to continue to invest in its technology assets and improve corporate
facilities. The Company expects to fund its 2022 capital expenditures primarily
with a combination of cash expected to be generated from future operations and
cash and short-term investments on hand.
51
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Contractual Obligations
The Company's material cash requirements include the following contractual obligations atDecember 31, 2021 : Contractual Obligations (4) Payments Due By Period Total 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Thereafter (Amounts in thousands) Debt (including interest)(1)$ 465,750 $ 16,500 $
16,500
45,913 17,171 12,120 7,940 5,328 2,164 1,190
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves(3) 2,226,430 1,367,049 394,685 196,448 118,305 61,306
88,637
Total contractual obligations$ 2,738,093 $ 1,400,720 $ 423,305 $ 220,888 $ 140,133 $ 79,970 $ 473,077 __________ (1)The Company's debt contains various terms, conditions and covenants which, if violated by the Company, would result in a default and could result in the acceleration of the Company's payment obligations. Amounts differ from the balances presented on the consolidated balance sheets as ofDecember 31, 2021 because the debt amounts above include interest, calculated at the stated 4.4% coupon rate, and exclude the discount and issuance costs of the debt. (2)The Company is obligated under various non-cancellable lease agreements providing for office space, automobiles, office equipment, and electronic data processing equipment that expire at various dates through the year 2028. Lease obligations include$6.3 million in lease commitments that have not yet commenced as ofDecember 31, 2021 . See Note 7. Leases, of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in "Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data" for additional information on lease obligations. (3)Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves represents an estimate of amounts necessary to settle all outstanding claims, including IBNR as ofDecember 31, 2021 . The Company has estimated the timing of these payments based on its historical experience and expectation of future payment patterns. However, the timing of these payments may vary significantly from the amounts shown above. The ultimate cost of losses may vary materially from recorded amounts which are the Company's best estimates. For more detailed information on the Company's historical loss experience and payment patterns, see "Overview-C. Critical Accounting Estimates" in "Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations," as well as Note 12. Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves, of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in "Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." (4)The table excludes liabilities of$6.2 million related to uncertainty in tax settlements as the Company is unable to reasonably estimate the timing and amount of related future payments. The Company expects to meet these contractual obligations primarily with a combination of cash expected to be generated from future operations and cash and short-term investments on hand, except for the payment of the principal of the debt, which is expected to be made with a future borrowing. F. Regulatory Capital Requirements The Insurance Companies must comply with minimum capital requirements under applicable state laws and regulations. The RBC formula is used by insurance regulators to monitor capital and surplus levels. It was designed to capture the widely varying elements of risks undertaken by writers of different lines of insurance business having differing risk characteristics, as well as writers of similar lines where differences in risk may be related to corporate structure, investment policies, reinsurance arrangements, and a number of other factors. The Company periodically monitors the RBC level of each of the Insurance Companies. As ofDecember 31, 2021 , 2020 and 2019, each of the Insurance Companies exceeded the minimum required RBC level, as determined by the NAIC and adopted by the state insurance regulators. None of the Insurance Companies' RBC ratios were less than 400% of the authorized control level RBC as ofDecember 31, 2021 and 2019, and none less than 350% as ofDecember 31, 2020 . Generally, an RBC ratio of 200% or less would require some form of regulatory or company action. Among other considerations, industry and regulatory guidelines suggest that the ratio of a property and casualty insurer's annual net premiums written to statutory policyholders' surplus should not exceed 3.0 to 1. Based on the combined surplus of all the Insurance Companies of$1.83 billion atDecember 31, 2021 and net premiums written in 2021 of$3.9 billion , the ratio of premiums written to surplus was 2.11 to 1. Insurance companies are required to file an Own Risk and Solvency Assessment ("ORSA") with the insurance regulators in their domiciliary states. The ORSA is required to cover, among many items, a company's risk management policies, the material risks to which the company is exposed, how the company measures, monitors, manages and mitigates material risks, 52 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- and how much economic and regulatory capital is needed to continue to operate in a strong and healthy manner. The ORSA is intended to be used by state insurance regulators to evaluate the risk exposure and quality of the risk management processes within insurance companies to assist in conducting risk-focused financial examinations and for determining the overall financial condition of insurance companies. The Company filed its most recent ORSA Summary Report with the California DOI inNovember 2021 . Compliance with the ORSA requirements did not have a material impact on the Company's consolidated financial statements.
The DOI in each state in which the Company operates is responsible for conducting periodic financial and market conduct examinations of the Insurance Companies in their states. Market conduct examinations typically review compliance with insurance statutes and regulations with respect to rating, underwriting, claims handling, billing, and other practices.
The following table presents a summary of recent examinations:
State Exam Type Period Under Review Status
Coordinated Initial information request was received in the third
CA, FL, GA, Multi-state
quarter of 2021. Examination is scheduled to commence in
IL, OK, TX Financial 2018-2021 the second quarter of 2022.
Received final examination report in the fourth quarter
CA Market Conduct 2020-2021 of 2021.
During the course of and at the conclusion of these examinations, the examining
DOI generally reports findings to the Company. The Company does not believe that
the findings reported in the California market conduct examination report for
the
2020-2021 examination period mentioned above are material to the Company's
financial position.
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