Public Joint Stock Mining and Metallurgical Norilsk Nickel : Nornickel presents metals market review

Moscow, May 23, 2022

NornickelPublic Joint Stock Company "Mining and Metallurgical Company "Norilsk Nickel" and its subsidiariesGo to the glossary, the world's largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel and a major producer of platinum and copper presents the ninth review of the nickel and platinum group metals (PGMPlatinum group metals taken as a whole or in any combination of platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, osmium and iridiumGo to the glossary) markets based on the fundamental analysis of world economic and industry data.

Full reports are available on Nornickel's website.

Platinum GroupPublic Joint Stock Company "Mining and Metallurgical Company "Norilsk Nickel" and its subsidiariesGo to the glossaryMetals

The platinum group metals (PGM) market of early 2022 was again stunned by black swan events, such as geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions that have caused a lot of uncertainties. The future stability of supply from Russia and the pace of recovery of the automotive sector - a major consumer of PGMs - are unclear.

Moreover, COVID-19, the main supply chain disruptor of recent years, is still there and still hits unexpectedly, as seen just recently in China. This, together with persisting bottlenecks in logistics, will likely delay chip supply recovery until 2023 at the very least, undermining car production around the world.

We revise the global light vehicle production outlook down to 80 million in 2022 and 91 million in 2023 as compared to the November 2021 estimate of 86 million and 93 million. This translates into an expected decrease in 2022 demand for palladium by 570,000 ounces and by 170,000 ounces for platinum, and a drop in 2023 demand of 370,000 ounces for palladium and 120,000 ounces for platinum.

Palladium

We expect global palladium demand to rise by 3% to 10.3 million ounces in 2022 mainly on the back of a partial automotive sector recovery from the low base of 2021. Metal supply will grow slightly as well, predominantly due to recovering after the 2021 accidents production at Nornickel's assets. As a result, it is expected that palladium market will be close to balance this year with the deficit of 0.1 million ounces.

The risks associated with palladium supply from Russia are adding to the uncertainty for consumers and contributing to the rising price volatility. However, Nornickel confirms its production guidance for 2022 and continues to deliver metals according to its contract obligations despite logistic obstacles associated with the limited availability of international flights.

In 2023, we expect palladium market to stay in balance, as the automotive demand recovery to be mostly offset by rise in secondary supply.

Platinum

We maintain that the 2022 platinum market surplus is expected at around 0.9 million ounces. In 2023, the surplus is seen shrinking to 0.6 million ounces mostly due to the automotive sector recovery.

We expect the demand for platinum from the automakers to stagnate this year as the global auto sector partial recovery will be offset by lower consumption in China, where metal use in car manufacturing will decline in 2022 on the back of PGM loading optimisation caused by thrifting after strong loadings growth in 2021 driven by the introduction of the China VI heavy-duty regulation. Moreover, the diesel-powered share of new passenger cars in Europe shrank in 1Q 2022 by −5 percentage points compared to Q1 last year to 16% creating additional pressure on platinum demand.

Hydrogen economy is expected to create significant additional demand for platinum, but it will take at least another 5 years for the industry to become a major platinum consumer. This process may however accelerate in the current environment as Europe takes a more aggressive stance on the path towards fossil-free economy.

South African supply is expected to decrease this year as most of accumulated work-in-progress materials were already processed during 2021. There is also a significant risk regarding primary supply in this region, as all the major PGM producers are to enter new wage negotiations with their local unions, which carries the risk of weeks-long strikes.

Nickel

In our base case scenario, we expect the 2022 primary nickel demand growth to slow down to +11% at 3.17 million tonnes as opposed to the 2021 increase of 17%, reflecting the current price environment, high inflation across major economies and uncertain macroeconomic outlook.

The 2022 nickel market is currently expected to be in a mild surplus of around 40,000 tonnes and mostly in low-grade nickel. It leaves our previous forecast virtually unchanged.

However, the unprecedented price volatility, new COVID-19 lockdowns, growing inflationary pressure and potential supply disruptions amid extremely tight nickel inventories may impact the 2022 forecast significantly.

In 2023, we expect the market surplus to widen to around 100,000 tonnes, predominantly in low-grade nickel, on the back of the new nickel pig iron capacities in Indonesia, coupled with the growing production of nickel chemicals and a further growth of Class 1 nickel and ferronickel output.

A 16% increase in 2023 nickel supply is anticipated to outpace the growing demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors, with the primary nickel use rising by 14% year-on-year. However, higher EV uptake and stainless steel output could still lead to even stronger nickel demand, while the ramp-up of Indonesian nickel pig iron capacities and other projects across the globe could underperform again.