The arrival of COVID vaccines have stirred excitement and optimism for a swift end to the global pandemic, with some seeing the shot as a "free pass" to soon gather and socialize as they did pre-2020.
Not so fast, experts say.
While experts agree the end of the pandemic is in sight, they say it will take time to determine what level of protection the new vaccines actually provide — and whether they prevent us from spreading the virus.
Experts expect mask mandates, limits on gatherings, and physical distancing measures to continue even as more of us get vaccinated, at least through part of 2021.
"Until we get to a level of herd immunity where we have around 70 per cent of our population vaccinated worldwide, there's going to be that question of transmission," said
Both Pfizer-BioNTech and
Some vaccines, like the one for HPV, offer complete protection from infection and transmission, while others like the flu shot primarily work against acquiring the virus and lessening the severity of symptoms. Kindrachuk says part of the reason for that is the way our immune systems respond to different vaccines.
The COVID vaccine seems to effectively produce neutralizing antibodies, he says, "but not necessarily enough to stop the virus from potentially getting into some of our cells."
Dr.
We may see that the inoculations do decrease transmission, he says, and restrictions could be lifted earlier than experts expect.
"But as it stands in
Being able to still transmit the virus becomes less of a problem as more and more people are vaccinated, experts say.
But
If 30 per cent of the population isn't immunized, the virus will continue to circulate through them, he says. So effective treatment for COVID-19 will be needed to deal with lingering cases.
"Viruses don't have brains but they're not stupid," he said. "They will continue to find hosts."
Dr.
The first indication that vaccines are working will be a reduction in deaths as long-term care and other high-risk groups are immunized, he says, while case counts will be the last to decrease. That means infection prevention controls will need to be followed while community transmission is still happening.
"Eventually you'll start to see a reduction in cases as these vaccine programs roll up, and then we'll start to see public health measures slowly lifted as the year progresses, post-April," he said. "We'll probably see a gradual shift allowing larger outdoor gatherings, then indoor gatherings, and eventually lifting of mask mandates."
An exact timeline for reaching that level is hard to predict, however.
While a highly effective vaccine will allow us to reach herd immunity quicker, Bogoch says a 95 per cent efficacy in a clinical trial might not actually translate that successfully in the real world.
Since efficacy was based on a two-dose regime, Bogoch expects that number to drop if people don't return for a second shot. It's also still unknown how effective the vaccine is for segments of the population excluded from clinical trials.
So visiting a grandparent or other high-risk individual in the next couple months will be risky, Bogoch says, even if they've been vaccinated.
"The effectiveness is probably going to be lower (than the trials showed)," he said. "And we'll need to see how this plays out in real time to help drive our behaviours."
This report by
© 2021 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved., source