Following the 2021 investor briefing, Morgan Stanley now includes forecasts for post-merger synergies with Saracen ((SAR)). This has removed much of the upside potential from the previously unquantified synergy benefits

 Meanwhile, guided gold production, costs and capital expenditure were all weaker than prior forecasts. The broker finds the stock fairly valued, already factoring in improvements at Pogo and healthy resource conversion across all sites.

Equal-weight rating. Target is reduced to $10.60 from $11.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Sector: Materials.

Target price is $10.60.Current Price is $10.13. Difference: $0.47 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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