Nomura : Individual Investor Survey December 2022

News Release

Nomura Individual

Investor Survey

December 2022

15 December 2022

Global Research Division

Nomura Securities Co., Ltd.

The Nomura Individual Investor Survey is a periodic survey conducted with the aim of better understanding investing activity by individuals and providing information on related trends.

Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey	December 15, 2022

1. Survey results

(1) Nomura I-View Index up from previous survey at 26.2

The Nomura Individual Investor Market View Index (Nomura I-View Index), based on respondents' three-month outlook for share prices and calculated by subtracting the percentage of responses for "fall" from that for "rise," was 26.2 in December 2022, up 9.0pt versus the previous survey. The Nikkei 225 reference level (5 December 2022 close) was 27,820.40, up 200.79 versus the previous survey (5 September 2022 close of 27,619.61).

Fig. 1: The Nomura I-View Index and reference level of Nikkei 225 at time of survey

(DI)	Nomura I-View Index (lhs)
90
Past average for index (lhs)
80	Nikkei 225 at time of survey (rhs)
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

06/4 07/4 08/4 09/4 10/4 11/4 12/4 13/4 14/4 15/4 16/4 17/4 18/4 19/4 20/4 21/4 22/4

(¥) 32,000

30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000 8,000

6,000

(yy/m)

Note: (1) The Nomura I-View Index is based on data collected by this survey and expressed as a diffusion index (DI). The calculation method is as follows: ([(number of responses indicating expected rise in share prices in the next three months) minus (number of responses indicating expected fall in share prices in the next three months)] divided by number of respondents) x 100. The figure for January 2010 used here excludes those respondents who projected that the Nikkei Average would be flat. (2) The Nomura I-View Index ranges from -100 to +100. (2) The Nomura I-View Index ranges from -100 to +100. The closer to +100, the more bullish the outlook held by individual investors. The closer to -100, the more bearish the outlook held by individual investors.

The combined percentage of respondents expecting the Nikkei 225 to rise over the next three months was 63.1%, up 4.5ppt from 58.6% in the previous survey. The percentage of respondents expecting a "rise of about 1,000 points" was 38.2%, up 6.2ppt from the previous survey. The proportion of respondents expecting a "rise of about 2,000 points" was down 1.3ppt at 16.7%, while the proportion responding with a "rise of more than 2,000 points" fell 0.4ppt to 8.2%.

The proportion expecting a "fall of about 1,000 points" declined 3.1ppt to 24.8%. The proportion expecting a "fall of about 2,000 points" was up 0.1ppt at 7.5%, while the proportion expecting a "fall of more than 2,000 points" was down 1.5ppt at 4.6% (Figure 2).

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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor SurveyDecember 15, 2022

Fig. 2: Outlook for Nikkei 225 during the next three months

Rise of more than 2,000 points		8.6
	8.2
Rise of about 2,000 points				18.0
			16.7
Rise of about 1,000 points							32.0	38.2
Fall of about 1,000 points						27.9
					24.8
		7.4
Fall of about 2,000 points									Sep 2022
		7.5
Fall of more than 2,000 points		6.1								Dec 2022
	4.6
0	5	10	15	20	25	30	35	40	45
										(% of responses)

Note: Respondents were asked to share their outlook for the Nikkei 225 during the next three months based on the 5 December 2022 close of 27,820. Respondents could choose one answer from a possible six responses ranging from a rise of more than 2,000 points to a fall of more than 2,000 points, with 1,000-point increments in between.

(2) Stronger investor focus on domestic politics and domestic corporate earnings

Respondents were asked to select the factor most likely to affect the stock market over the next three months. The response rate for "domestic politics" rose 1.3ppt versus the previous survey to 6.8%. That for "domestic corporate earnings" rose 1.2ppt to 6.7%. That for "forex trends", on the other hand, fell 1.7ppt to 18.6%.

Fig. 3: Impact of factors on the stock market

International affairs								54.5
				53.7
Forex trends		20.3
	18.6
Domestic interest rates	8.0
8.8
Domestic politics	5.5
6.8
Domestic corporate earnings	5.5
6.7
	5.5
Market factors & psychological factors						Sep 2022
	5.1						Dec 2022
Weather & natural disasters	0.7
0.3
0	10	20	30	40	50	60
							(% of responses)

Note: Respondents were asked to choose one answer from a possible seven responses concerning factors likely to impact the stock market over the next three months or so.

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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey	December 15, 2022

1. Appeal of electrical equipment/precision equipment and consumer goods sectors up, that of materials sector down On the outlook for sectors over the next three months or so, we calculate a diffusion index (DI) for each sector by subtracting the percentage of respondents viewing it as "unappealing" from the percentage of respondents viewing it as "appealing." The DI for the electrical equipment/precision equipment sector increased 3.8pt versus the previous survey to 6.0. The DI for the consumer goods sector increased 2.9pt to -9.8.By contrast, the DI for the materials sector declined 3.3pt to 10.3 (Figures 4 and 5).

Fig. 4: Investment appeal by sector

	Sector			DI			Breakdown of DI (% of responses)			(Ref)
					Appealing			Unappealing			Previous DI
	Materials	10.3		20.3		10.0		13.6
	Pharmaceuticals	9.9		15.7		5.8		13.0
	Electrical equipment/precision equipment	6.0		11.0		5.0		2.2
	Capital goods/other	2.4		9.1		6.7		1.6
	Telecommunications	1.0		6.2		5.2		0.8
	Transportation and utilities	-3.4		11.2		14.6		-2.4
	Automobiles	-6.7		6.4		13.1		-4.1
	Financials	-9.7		9.3		19.0		-12.0
	Consumer goods	-9.8		10.8		20.6		-12.7

Note: Respondents were given nine sectors and asked to choose one they viewed as an appealing investment target and one they viewed as unappealing. For each sector, we calculated a DI by subtracting the percentage of responses for "unappealing" from that for "appealing." The materials sector comprises mining, textiles, paper & pulp, chemicals, oil, ceramics, steel, nonferrous metals, and trading houses. The financial sector comprises banks, miscellaneous finance, securities, and insurance. The capital goods/other sector comprises construction, machinery, shipbuilding, transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, and real estate. The transportation and utilities sector comprises railroads & buses, trucking, shipping, airlines, warehousing, electric power, and gas. The consumer sector comprises marine products, food, retail, and services.

Fig. 5: DIs for selected sectors

50(DI)

40

30

20

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

12/1

13/1

14/1

15/1

16/1

17/1

18/1

19/1

20/1

21/1

22/1

Automobiles

Financials

Capital goods/other

Pharmaceuticals

Electrical equipment/precision equipment

Materials

Telecommunications

Transportation and utilities

Consumer goods (yy/m)

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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey	December 15, 2022

(4) Most-watched stocks

Respondents were asked to name one stock that they would like to have in their portfolio, or that they find appealing, regardless of whether their investment horizon is the short term or long term (including stocks actually held). We show the most popular responses in Figure 6.

Fig. 6: Name a stock with appeal (1,000 valid responses)

	Code		Company		No. of
			respondents
7203		Toyota Motor	76
2897		Nissin Foods Holdings	33
6758		Sony Group	24
8306		Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group	24
2914		Japan Tobacco	23
8058		Mitsubishi Corp	23
9101		Nippon Yusen	23
4502		Takeda Pharmaceutical	21
8267		Aeon	18
7974		Nintendo	16
8591		Orix	15
4507		Shionogi	14
4755		Rakuten	14
6501		Hitachi	14
6752		Panasonic	13
9104		Mitsui OSK Lines	13
9202		ANA Holdings	13
4661		Oriental Land	12

	Code		Company		No. of
			respondents
9434		Softbank	11
9432		Nippon Telegraph and Telephone	10
9984		Softbank Group	10
3105		Nisshinbo Holdings	9
8766		Tokio Marine Holdings	9
2802		Ajinomoto	8
4523		Eisai	8
7201		Nissan Motor	8
3402		Toray Industries	7
7267		Honda Motor	7
8316		Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group	7
4452		Kao	6
5401		Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal	6
8031		Mitsui & Co	6
8411		Mizuho Financial Group	6
9020		East Japan Railway	6
9433		KDDI	6

Note: Not included in valid responses were answers of "none" or clearly mistaken responses.

(5) Rise in percentage of investors expecting yen appreciation against US dollar

On the outlook for USD/JPY over the next three months, the combined percentage of respondents expecting the yen to appreciate against the US dollar was 59.7%, up 16.7ppt from the previous survey. The response rate for "rise of about ¥5 against the dollar" rose 11.8ppt versus the previous survey to 37.2%. The response rate for "rise of about ¥10 against the dollar" rose 5.3ppt to 17.8% and the response rate for "rise of more than ¥10 against the dollar" fell 0.4ppt to 4.7%.

The response rate for "fall of about ¥5 against the dollar" declined 13.4ppt to 25.4%. The response rate for "fall of about ¥10 against the dollar" fell 4.1ppt to 8.9%, while that for "fall of more than ¥10 against the dollar" rose 0.8ppt to 6.0% (Figure 7).

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