News Release
Nomura Individual
Investor Survey
December 2022
15 December 2022
Global Research Division
Nomura Securities Co., Ltd.
The Nomura Individual Investor Survey is a periodic survey conducted with the aim of better understanding investing activity by individuals and providing information on related trends.
Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey | December 15, 2022 |
1. Survey results
(1) Nomura I-View Index up from previous survey at 26.2
The Nomura Individual Investor Market View Index (Nomura I-View Index), based on respondents' three-month outlook for share prices and calculated by subtracting the percentage of responses for "fall" from that for "rise," was 26.2 in December 2022, up 9.0pt versus the previous survey. The Nikkei 225 reference level (5 December 2022 close) was 27,820.40, up 200.79 versus the previous survey (5 September 2022 close of 27,619.61).
Fig. 1: The Nomura I-View Index and reference level of Nikkei 225 at time of survey
(DI) | Nomura I-View Index (lhs) |
90 | |
Past average for index (lhs) | |
80 | Nikkei 225 at time of survey (rhs) |
70 |
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
06/4 07/4 08/4 09/4 10/4 11/4 12/4 13/4 14/4 15/4 16/4 17/4 18/4 19/4 20/4 21/4 22/4
(¥) 32,000
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000 8,000
6,000
(yy/m)
Note: (1) The Nomura I-View Index is based on data collected by this survey and expressed as a diffusion index (DI). The calculation method is as follows: ([(number of responses indicating expected rise in share prices in the next three months) minus (number of responses indicating expected fall in share prices in the next three months)] divided by number of respondents) x 100. The figure for January 2010 used here excludes those respondents who projected that the Nikkei Average would be flat. (2) The Nomura I-View Index ranges from -100 to +100. (2) The Nomura I-View Index ranges from -100 to +100. The closer to +100, the more bullish the outlook held by individual investors. The closer to -100, the more bearish the outlook held by individual investors.
The combined percentage of respondents expecting the Nikkei 225 to rise over the next three months was 63.1%, up 4.5ppt from 58.6% in the previous survey. The percentage of respondents expecting a "rise of about 1,000 points" was 38.2%, up 6.2ppt from the previous survey. The proportion of respondents expecting a "rise of about 2,000 points" was down 1.3ppt at 16.7%, while the proportion responding with a "rise of more than 2,000 points" fell 0.4ppt to 8.2%.
The proportion expecting a "fall of about 1,000 points" declined 3.1ppt to 24.8%. The proportion expecting a "fall of about 2,000 points" was up 0.1ppt at 7.5%, while the proportion expecting a "fall of more than 2,000 points" was down 1.5ppt at 4.6% (Figure 2).
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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor SurveyDecember 15, 2022
Fig. 2: Outlook for Nikkei 225 during the next three months
Rise of more than 2,000 points | 8.6 | ||||||||||
8.2 | |||||||||||
Rise of about 2,000 points | 18.0 | ||||||||||
16.7 | |||||||||||
Rise of about 1,000 points | 32.0 | 38.2 | |||||||||
Fall of about 1,000 points | 27.9 | ||||||||||
24.8 | |||||||||||
7.4 | |||||||||||
Fall of about 2,000 points | Sep 2022 | ||||||||||
7.5 | |||||||||||
Fall of more than 2,000 points | 6.1 | Dec 2022 | |||||||||
4.6 | |||||||||||
0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | ||
(% of responses) |
Note: Respondents were asked to share their outlook for the Nikkei 225 during the next three months based on the 5 December 2022 close of 27,820. Respondents could choose one answer from a possible six responses ranging from a rise of more than 2,000 points to a fall of more than 2,000 points, with 1,000-point increments in between.
(2) Stronger investor focus on domestic politics and domestic corporate earnings
Respondents were asked to select the factor most likely to affect the stock market over the next three months. The response rate for "domestic politics" rose 1.3ppt versus the previous survey to 6.8%. That for "domestic corporate earnings" rose 1.2ppt to 6.7%. That for "forex trends", on the other hand, fell 1.7ppt to 18.6%.
Fig. 3: Impact of factors on the stock market
International affairs | 54.5 | ||||||||
53.7 | |||||||||
Forex trends | 20.3 | ||||||||
18.6 | |||||||||
Domestic interest rates | 8.0 | ||||||||
8.8 | |||||||||
Domestic politics | 5.5 | ||||||||
6.8 | |||||||||
Domestic corporate earnings | 5.5 | ||||||||
6.7 | |||||||||
5.5 | |||||||||
Market factors & psychological factors | Sep 2022 | ||||||||
5.1 | Dec 2022 | ||||||||
Weather & natural disasters | 0.7 | ||||||||
0.3 | |||||||||
0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | |||
(% of responses) |
Note: Respondents were asked to choose one answer from a possible seven responses concerning factors likely to impact the stock market over the next three months or so.
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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey | December 15, 2022 |
- Appeal of electrical equipment/precision equipment and consumer goods sectors up, that of materials sector down On the outlook for sectors over the next three months or so, we calculate a diffusion index (DI) for each sector by subtracting the percentage of respondents viewing it as "unappealing" from the percentage of respondents viewing it as "appealing." The DI for the electrical equipment/precision equipment sector increased 3.8pt versus the previous survey to 6.0. The DI for the consumer goods sector increased 2.9pt to -9.8.By contrast, the DI for the materials sector declined 3.3pt to 10.3 (Figures 4 and 5).
Fig. 4: Investment appeal by sector
Sector | DI | Breakdown of DI (% of responses) | (Ref) | |||||||||||
Appealing | Unappealing | Previous DI | ||||||||||||
Materials | 10.3 | 20.3 | 10.0 | 13.6 | ||||||||||
Pharmaceuticals | 9.9 | 15.7 | 5.8 | 13.0 | ||||||||||
Electrical equipment/precision equipment | 6.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 2.2 | ||||||||||
Capital goods/other | 2.4 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 1.6 | ||||||||||
Telecommunications | 1.0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 0.8 | ||||||||||
Transportation and utilities | -3.4 | 11.2 | 14.6 | -2.4 | ||||||||||
Automobiles | -6.7 | 6.4 | 13.1 | -4.1 | ||||||||||
Financials | -9.7 | 9.3 | 19.0 | -12.0 | ||||||||||
Consumer goods | -9.8 | 10.8 | 20.6 | -12.7 | ||||||||||
Note: Respondents were given nine sectors and asked to choose one they viewed as an appealing investment target and one they viewed as unappealing. For each sector, we calculated a DI by subtracting the percentage of responses for "unappealing" from that for "appealing." The materials sector comprises mining, textiles, paper & pulp, chemicals, oil, ceramics, steel, nonferrous metals, and trading houses. The financial sector comprises banks, miscellaneous finance, securities, and insurance. The capital goods/other sector comprises construction, machinery, shipbuilding, transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, and real estate. The transportation and utilities sector comprises railroads & buses, trucking, shipping, airlines, warehousing, electric power, and gas. The consumer sector comprises marine products, food, retail, and services.
Fig. 5: DIs for selected sectors
50(DI)
40
30
20
10 |
0
-10-20
-30
-40
12/1 | 13/1 | 14/1 | 15/1 | 16/1 | 17/1 | 18/1 | 19/1 | 20/1 | 21/1 | 22/1 |
Automobiles
Financials
Capital goods/other
Pharmaceuticals
Electrical equipment/precision equipment
Materials
Telecommunications
Transportation and utilities
Consumer goods (yy/m)
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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey | December 15, 2022 |
(4) Most-watched stocks
Respondents were asked to name one stock that they would like to have in their portfolio, or that they find appealing, regardless of whether their investment horizon is the short term or long term (including stocks actually held). We show the most popular responses in Figure 6.
Fig. 6: Name a stock with appeal (1,000 valid responses)
Code | Company | No. of | |||
respondents | |||||
7203 | Toyota Motor | 76 | |||
2897 | Nissin Foods Holdings | 33 | |||
6758 | Sony Group | 24 | |||
8306 | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 24 | |||
2914 | Japan Tobacco | 23 | |||
8058 | Mitsubishi Corp | 23 | |||
9101 | Nippon Yusen | 23 | |||
4502 | Takeda Pharmaceutical | 21 | |||
8267 | Aeon | 18 | |||
7974 | Nintendo | 16 | |||
8591 | Orix | 15 | |||
4507 | Shionogi | 14 | |||
4755 | Rakuten | 14 | |||
6501 | Hitachi | 14 | |||
6752 | Panasonic | 13 | |||
9104 | Mitsui OSK Lines | 13 | |||
9202 | ANA Holdings | 13 | |||
4661 | Oriental Land | 12 | |||
Code | Company | No. of | |||
respondents | |||||
9434 | Softbank | 11 | |||
9432 | Nippon Telegraph and Telephone | 10 | |||
9984 | Softbank Group | 10 | |||
3105 | Nisshinbo Holdings | 9 | |||
8766 | Tokio Marine Holdings | 9 | |||
2802 | Ajinomoto | 8 | |||
4523 | Eisai | 8 | |||
7201 | Nissan Motor | 8 | |||
3402 | Toray Industries | 7 | |||
7267 | Honda Motor | 7 | |||
8316 | Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group | 7 | |||
4452 | Kao | 6 | |||
5401 | Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal | 6 | |||
8031 | Mitsui & Co | 6 | |||
8411 | Mizuho Financial Group | 6 | |||
9020 | East Japan Railway | 6 | |||
9433 | KDDI | 6 | |||
Note: Not included in valid responses were answers of "none" or clearly mistaken responses.
(5) Rise in percentage of investors expecting yen appreciation against US dollar
On the outlook for USD/JPY over the next three months, the combined percentage of respondents expecting the yen to appreciate against the US dollar was 59.7%, up 16.7ppt from the previous survey. The response rate for "rise of about ¥5 against the dollar" rose 11.8ppt versus the previous survey to 37.2%. The response rate for "rise of about ¥10 against the dollar" rose 5.3ppt to 17.8% and the response rate for "rise of more than ¥10 against the dollar" fell 0.4ppt to 4.7%.
The response rate for "fall of about ¥5 against the dollar" declined 13.4ppt to 25.4%. The response rate for "fall of about ¥10 against the dollar" fell 4.1ppt to 8.9%, while that for "fall of more than ¥10 against the dollar" rose 0.8ppt to 6.0% (Figure 7).
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Nomura Holdings Inc. published this content on 15 December 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 15 December 2022 11:45:07 UTC.