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Getting back on our feet after such a difficult year
By Dr. Tamika L. Ledbetter, Commissioner
Where has the time gone? Another year has passed by quickly, but in many ways, 2020 also seemed to drag on. Many of us will remember 2020 as one of the most economically devastating and emotionally draining years ever. Record unemploy- ment, business closures, telework as the promoted norm, Zoom meetings, reduced gatherings, and ongoing concerns over health and safety have challenged every aspect of our daily lives.
In hard times, it can be difficult to find the good. In truth, I struggle to list successes when so many families, friends, and neighbors are struggling.
I have faith, though, that we will get through this difficult time and emerge more resilient. Alaska is a land of resources, full of individuals with rugged spirit and determination.
This year showcased our everyday heroes, again and again. They are the Alaskans serving the public
-
nurses and doctors, other front-line health care
and emergency workers, state workers getting need- ed support to struggling families, and grocery store clerks, to name just a few - and they all met daunt- ing new challenges to ensure continuity and stability for our communities. To all of you, thank you.
Despite the upheaval, I am hopeful about the days ahead. It will take enormous effort to help those who have fallen behind because of closures and job losses, but I'm confident the worst is behind us, and I see opportunities ahead. Helping Alaskans get back to work is the answer to reinvigorating the economy and getting Alaska back to normal.
This will be a year to prepare for and pursue new endeavors. Some people may need additional skills to compete for more technical jobs listed on employment sites, and others might require a career change.
If a different type of work is on your horizon, consider the industries that need
workers. Alaska's vital housing market requires people skilled in the construction trades. The health care industry will continue to need additional workers for the foreseeable future. The transportation industry requires a strong workforce to move essential goods and services across our large state.
Many employers in Alaska have vacancies they need to fill now. If you need to broaden your job search, think about the skills you have that are transferrable to Alaska's available job opportuni- ties. Contacting your local job center is a great first step, especially if you're not sure about your options. Our job counselors are ready to help you assess your qualifications, pursue additional training if needed, and connect you with potential employers. Call (877) 724-2539 to speak with job center staff, or visit jobs.alaska.gov.
I wish you happiness, health, and strength in all your endeavors in 2021.
Contact Dr. Tamika L. Ledbetter, Commissioner, at (907) 465-2700 or commissioner.labor@alaska.gov.
Follow the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development
on Twitter (twitter.com/alaskalabor) and Facebook (facebook.com/alaskalabor).
ON THIS SPREAD: The background image for 2021 is a cloudy sunset in Wasilla.
Photo by Flickr user kryptonic83 License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/
JANUARY
2021
Volume 41 Number 1
ISSN 0160-3345
SARA WHITNEY
Editor
DAN ROBINSON
Chief, Research
and Analysis
Design by Sara Whitney
ON THE COVER:
Packrafting in an ice canyon on the Matanuska Glacier, about 100 miles north
of Anchorage, photo by
Flickr user Paxson Woelber
License:
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0
ALASKA
DEPARTMENT of LABOR
and WORKFORCE
DEVELOPMENT
Governor
Mike Dunleavy
Commissioner
Dr. Tamika L. Ledbetter
If you have questions or comments, contact the authors listed at the end of each article or the editor at sara.whitney@alaska.gov or (907) 465-6561. This material is public information, and with appropriate credit it may be reproduced without permission.
To sign up for a free electronic subscription, read past issues, or purchase a print subscription, visit https://labor.alaska.gov/trends.
Statewide Forecast for 2021
Slow recovery after pandemic-related loss of 27,200 jobs
By KARINNE WIEBOLD
Alaska shed 27,200 jobs last year, dropping employment to 2003 levels. Before the pan- demic, Alaska had weathered a long statewide
recession followed by a single year of weak growth. Absent another shock, we'll recover some of the lost jobs this year - we forecast a gain of about 8,600
- but it will likely take several years to regain 2019's job levels.
Government and oil will continue to cut jobs in the short term, but all other industries will hold steady or begin to rebound. The industries likely to grow the most in 2021 will be those that suffered the steepest losses in 2020.
Leisure and hospitality lost more than any other sector in 2020 (-9,600 jobs) because the tourist season never materialized, and it will add about 3,500 jobs this year. Another casualty whose recovery depends on visitors returning is the transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector, which lost 3,600 jobs and might recoup just under half of them this year.
Clouds remain on the horizon as a crippling year
ends. Long-term state budget and revenue problems remain unresolved, and oil prices are forecasted in the mid-$40s, Alaska's population has been dropping since 2017, and we've lost more movers than we've gained for the last seven years in a row.
This year's success also hinges on several factors yet to be determined. The pandemic isn't over, and the timing and success of widespread vaccination will be a major determinant of 2021's course. Schools haven't reopened yet, the tourist season is up in the air, especially for cruise ships, and questions linger about people's appetites for traveling and shopping.
Little improvement through Dec.
Last year began normally, but the seeds of crisis germinated early. The first U.S. case of COVID-19 was reported in late January, and Alaska's first recorded case came in early March. By mid-March, measures to curb the virus' spread pulled students from class- rooms, suspended indoor dining, and postponed elective medical procedures.
Pandemic disruptions don't show up in first-quarter employment data, but they were obvious by April. In
The pandemic caused a historic drop in total Alaska employment in 2020
Pipeline built
25% | ||||||||||
20% | ||||||||||
15% | ||||||||||
10% | Oil boom | |||||||||
2021 | ||||||||||
5% | forecast | |||||||||
Alaska | 2.8% | |||||||||
0 | recession | |||||||||
U.S. | ||||||||||
-5% | Pipeline | Oil bust | recession | |||||||
-10% | complete | COVID | ||||||||
1970 | 1975 | 1980 | 1985 | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 |
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section
4 JANUARY 2021 ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS MAGAZINE
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Northrim BanCorp Inc. published this content on 01 February 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 02 February 2021 23:53:08 UTC.
