RIO DE JANEIRO, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The future of state-run
oil company Petrobras's refinery sales is in doubt after the
Brazilian government moved to replace Chief Executive Roberto
Castello Branco, three people close to the bidders said on
Friday.
The potential for a mass resignation of the company's
management raises questions about whether momentum toward asset
sales strongly pushed by Castello Branco will be maintained
under his replacement, two of the people said. The three sources
spoke on condition of anonymity.
A possible new management with a more nationalistic profile,
led by former Defense Minister Joaquim Silva e Luna, could
suspend the divestment process, the sources said. No decision
has been made by Petrobras or bidders as it is too soon to
evaluate the scenario, they added.
Bidders who were preparing firm offers are expected to pause
before deciding whether to proceed, they said.
More advanced negotiations, including for RLAM and REFAP
refineries, could eventually move ahead if bidders have legal
security and political support for the privatizations remains,
two of the people said.
Petrobras said earlier this month it had agreed to sell RLAM
to Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Capital for $1.65 billion. Brazilian
group Ultrapar Participacoes SA is leading talks to
buy REFAP, based in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande
do Sul.
The uncertainties could also impact the valuation of the
plants, with increased political risk included in the costs, one
of the sources said.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro moved to replace Castello
Branco after weeks of tension over fuel price hikes.
"It's certainly a good argument for a lower price," said a
fourth source close to a bidder for Petrobras' REGAP refinery in
the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. "I hope Bolsonaro has a
plan to restore credibility."
The populist Brazilian president's reluctance to tolerate
price increases in line with market swings could also dampen
potential bidders' enthusiasm, said Edmar Almeida, a professor
specializing in energy at the Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro.
"It's become very clear to the market that the Brazilian
government and even society isn't prepared to allow a company
with freedom to set prices at the most critical moments,"
Almeida said.
"This uncertainty will certainly make it harder to sell the
refineries," Almeida added. "Whoever buys is going to want
freedom to set prices, otherwise the business won't be
sustainable."
Petrobras has been raising fuel prices since a Feb. 5
Reuters report that disclosed details of the company's price
policy, which led analysts to downgrade the company's shares on
concerns of possible political interference.
Investors have been jittery about possible political
interference since the oil producer confirmed Petrobras would
allow domestic prices to differ from international prices for
longer periods of time than previously disclosed.
Reuters reported on Feb. 5 that Petrobras was calculating
the international price parity of the fuels it sells over a
period of one year. It was the first time the period used
internally by Petrobras to close the books on price fluctuations
had been made public since 2019, when the calculation was done
monthly.
(Additional reporting by Luciano Costa in Sao Paulo and Gram
Slattery in Rio de Janeiro; Editing by Christian Plumb and Will
Dunham)