This is evidenced by its stratospheric dividend yield, which is closer to that of a junior bond when the creditor is on the verge of bankruptcy than to that of an ordinary share, even in a sector that is in serious difficulty.
Appointed last spring, the new CEO—the fifth in three years—Magda Chambriard has committed to distributing between $45bn and $55bn in dividends over the next five years, with room for special distributions of $10bn - if possible.
These amounts are striking when compared to Petrobras' market capitalization of $72bn and its enterprise value of $129bn. Such a valuation reflects investors' extreme mistrust of the Brazilian President Lula, who has also established himself as the de facto president of Petrobras.
The Brazilian government controls 37% of the group's capital, as well as the board of directors and half of the voting rights. Those who see the glass as half full will point out that the government is the primary beneficiary of dividends from the national crown jewel and therefore has no interest in seeing them decline.
The reality is less clear-cut. Without even mentioning the massive embezzlement, measures to protect purchasing power on fuel and other processed products have already cost Petrobras tens of billions, while winning votes for Lula, a self-proclaimed admirer of Mao Zedong and Hugo Chavez.
Furthermore, during Lula's previous term in office, and then during that of his successor Dilma Rousseff, the Brazilian government forced Petrobras to invest heavily in different areas, often disregarding profitability. Some saw this as a way to provide jobs and management positions to local political supporters and encourage corruption at all levels.
In recent years, Petrobras had returned to focusing on its most profitable segment—offshore production—and had begun selling off assets in order to rebalance its balance sheet. The highly respected Jean Paul Prates wanted to continue this strategy; his stubbornness has clearly cost him his job.
His replacement, Magda Chambriard, has fully aligned herself with the strategy dictated by the Brazilian head of state. She is promising a Petrobras that is "as big as possible" and diversified into new business sectors. This change of course, as reflected in the share price, has been particularly unpopular with investors.
However, there are ground to believe that some will see this as a sufficiently attractive dividend yield to offset the risk.
