(Alliance News) - European stock markets closed on a bearish trend in the first session of the week after a strong performance last week, driven in recent sessions by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks in the mid-2024s.

In addition, traders remained cautious ahead of a substantial wave of data coming in this week, which includes the Eurozone PMI and producer prices.

On Monday, in the CME Group platform's FedWatch Tool, using futures also based on the actual federal funds rate, or EFFR, rate confirmation at the December meeting is now taken for granted, with a 97 percent probability for the 525/550 bp range confirmation. In contrast, the 25 bps hike in the 550/575 bps target is priced at 3%.

On the ECB front, however, for the next meeting the market appears poised for another confirmation of the three main rates, although traders now look with increasing conviction to cuts that could come in the new year. As Algebris writes in its weekly note, "markets now expect the first cut of 25 bp by April and 115 bp in total by 2024, in tandem with the Fed."

"Inflation markets expect the HICP to fall below target by August 2024, but we believe the ECB may anticipate a possible move," the London-based asset management firm's note concludes.

Thus, the FTSE Mib closed down 0.1 percent to 29,914.09, the Mid-Cap gave up 0.8 percent to 42,826.93, the Small-Cap left 0.4 percent to 26,119.90 on the parterre while Italy Growth picked up 0.7 percent to 7,986.35.

In Europe, Paris' CAC 40 gave up 0.2 percent, Frankfurt's DAX 40 closed just above the parity line, while London's FTSE100 finished 0.2 percent in the red.

On the main list of Piazza Affari, boost on Banca Monte dei Paschi, which moved ahead 3.7 percent with new price at EUR3.25 per share after falling 1.2 percent in the previous session.

As Francesco Bonazzi writes in Alliance News, "the market continues to reward Monte dei Paschi di Siena's turnaround, with progress also recognized today by the European Central Bank, which eased capital requirements for the Treasury-controlled institution. In the background, the issue of alliances always remains, given that with each passing month Monte is becoming more attractive after a dark decade.

"For Via XX Settembre and for Italian taxpayers it is a nice breath of fresh air, although for triumphalism it is still early days. Today Rocca Salimbeni capitalizes about EUR4 billion on the stock market. The old shareholders have lost all their investment and the state, between shares bought and increases subscribed, has spent over EUR7 billion. Now, the Mef still holds 39 percent (it just sold 25 percent for EUR920 million), which at current prices would be worth EUR1.56 billion. With this EUR2.48 billion cashed in or collectible, we are therefore still well below the cost of the 2017 bailout," the columnist points out in his "business on the Square" column.

Nexi, on the other hand, marked a plus 2.0 percent, in its fourth session closed bullish.

Snam - in the green with 0.6 percent - announced on Monday that, following a signing last July, Snam and BW LNG have finalized the Italian group's acquisition of 100 percent of the share capital of FSRU I Ltd, the company that owns the floating storage and regasification unit "BW Singapore," for a total consideration of about EUR367 million.

Eni -- down 1.9 percent -- announced Monday that it had signed a new EUR3 billion five-year sustainability-linked revolving credit facility linked to the achievement of two targets in its Sustainability-Linked Financing Framework updated in April. The new facility will further strengthen the company's financial flexibility, complementing the similar EUR6 billion sustainability-linked credit facility signed in 2022.

Also down was subsidiary Saipem, which gave up 2.2 percent. Said report that Capital Fund Management on Friday cut its short on the stock to 0.93% from 1.09% previously, while Voleon Capital Management reduced it to 0.49% from 0.62% previously.

On the MidCap, OVS rallied 1.4 percent, on its seventh bullish session and bringing the price to EUR2.07.

Piaggio--best on the list with a green of 4.2%--reported on Monday that the Vespa brand was valued at EUR1.08 billion, an increase of 19% over the brand's value obtained in the previous valuation of EUR906 million in 2021. This, the company says, is the result of the study commissioned by the Piaggio Group from global brand consultancy Interbrand on Vespa.

Good purchases were also made on Caltagirone, which in closing crossed the finish line with a plus 1.3 percent after two sessions closed among the bearish.

Technoprobe, on the other hand, gave up 4.2%, with new price at EUR7.46, on the heels of Friday's 1.0% red.

Rear-ends also for Eurogroup Laminations, which closed down 5.1 percent. The company, which is proceeding steadily with its buyback plan, announced on Monday that it had bought back - in the period between November 27 and December 1 - 172,000 of its own ordinary shares, with a total value of EUR621,000 or so.

On the SmallCap, boost on SIT, which advanced 14 percent to EUR3.24 per share, closing for the fifth session in a row with a bullish candle.

Valsoia, on the other hand, advances 1.6 percent to EUR8.84 per share. High trading volume of nearly 24,000 pieces is reported on the stock, compared with a three-month daily average of about 4,100.

Aquafil, on the other hand, stepped back 4.5 percent with new price at EUR2.77, marking its third straight session with a positive balance.

Mondo TV - down 1.2% - reported that it has strengthened its partnership with Canal+ Thematiques, operator of pay-TV channels in France and part of the Vivendi group, by reaching a preliminary agreement to license the Monster Loving Maniac series.

Among SMEs, finally, Aton Green Storage advanced more than 11 percent to EUR6.14 following up Friday night's gain, albeit by a more modest 1.5 percent.

Casta Diva pushed ahead by 5.1 percent, bringing the price to EUR1.44. The stock since the beginning of 2023 marks a market cap increasei of more than 110%.

At the back of the pack, Copernicus gave up 7.0% to EUR3.74, after two bullish sessions in which it rallied a cumulative more than 8%.

Allcore gave up 6.2 percent by repricing to EUR1.75 per share after posting a high trading volume that exceeded 29,700 pieces, compared with the three-month daily average of 6,400.

In New York, the Dow Jones is giving up 0.4 percent, the S&P is down 0.8 percent, and the Nasdaq trades 1.3 percent lower.

Among currencies, the euro changes hands at USD1.0820 against USD1.0869 recorded in Friday's European stock close while the pound is worth USD1.2620 from USD1.2675 on Friday evening.

Brent crude is worth USD78.52 per barrel versus USD81.01 per barrel at Friday's close. Gold, on the other hand, trades at USD2,025.16 an ounce from USD2,055.72 an ounce Friday night.

Tuesday's macroeconomic calendar includes, at 0030 CET, Japan's inflation data, while at 0130 CET it will be the turn, also from Japan, of the services PMI.

From China, at 0130 CET, the services PMI and manufacturing PMI will be released. Between 0915 CET and 1030 CET the services PMI from Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone and the UK will be released while, at 1100 CET, again from the Eurozone, the producer price index will be available.

From the US, at 1545 CET, focus on the release of the tertiary sector PMI while, at 1600 CET, the JOLTs report for October will be released. Finally, at 2230 CET, the weekly oil stocks data will arrive.

Among the companies in the Piazza Affari, no special events are scheduled.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

Comments and questions to redazione@alliancenews.com

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