PJSC Sberbank : Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker once again records improvement in consumer confidence among Russians

The traditional Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker, published quarterly by SberCIB Investment Research, shows that optimism is on the rise among Russians. The study, which was carried out in June based on the results for Q2 2021, recorded an improvement in consumer sentiment and confidence.

Our index was up again in Q2 2021, just like three months ago, and reached -17%. It equaled -19% in Q1 2021 and -31% in Q2 2020, when self-isolation was implemented. The tracker is now close to its average figures for 2015-2020, which speaks to the gradual recovery of consumer confidence among Russians.

Yaroslav Lissovolik

Head of SberCIB Investment Research

Income and spending: 55% of Russians choose not to skimp on cafés and restaurants

Despite inflation, Q2 2021 did not see an active shift to cheaper goods. In net terms, the proportion of Ivanovs trying to save on leisure and entertainment has been decreasing since Q4 2020 and amounted to 40% and 45%, respectively, this time, 4-6 percentage points lower than in Q1 2021 and 20 percentage points lower than in Q2 2020. The share of people attempting to save on food at restaurants and cafés reached a new minimum of 45% (51% in Q1 2021, 68% in Q2 2020).

Economic concerns eased in Q2 2021, with the overall picture unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Ivanovs remain predominantly preoccupied with their health, and the proportion of people concerned about economic growth and the ruble exchange rate dropped by 3 and 2 percentage points, respectively, compared to Q1 2021.

The study shows an increase in the average monthly wage in Q2 2021 from RUB 38,700 to RUB 40,000, which corresponds to seasonal trends.

Savings: 7.5% of income saved on average

In Q2 2021, average savings per household in absolute terms grew by 5% to RUB 54,000. The share of income allocated to savings increased from 7.2% to 7.5%. The proportion of consumers who consider the current economic situation unfavorable for savings dropped, reaching 39% (compared to 52% in Q2 2020).

Social benefits: 69% spend benefits on children's clothing

Thirty-seven percent of respondents stated that they are set to receive additional social benefits from the state in August or September (including lump sum payments of RUB 10,000 per child in anticipation of the new school year). The survey participants plan to spend the aforementioned funds on clothing (69%), food items (51%), children's products (44%), and medicine (29%).

Shopping: 60% shop online

Over 60% of Ivanovs shop online, although that figure has not changed since 2019. Nevertheless, the categories of goods acquired on the internet continue to grow. The most popular products over the last six months were clothing and accessories (57% of respondents; 7 percentage points higher than a year ago), food items, including ready meals (47%, +14 percentage points), and household electronics (39%, -1 percentage point).

Food items are therefore the goods most often procured via the internet (1.7 times per week), alongside children's goods (1.2 times per month), medication, and pet products (monthly). The proportion of Ivanovs who order food delivery from restaurants rose from 38% to 42%.

Taxis: 43% order taxis through aggregators

The study showed that the taxi segment, which was heavily impacted by quarantine, has recovered. In Q1 2021, 70% of Ivanovs made use of taxi services (compared to 64% the previous year). Against this backdrop, online aggregators are growing in popularity: 43% of respondents ordered taxis through aggregators between January and July 2021 (5 percentage points more than a year ago). Fifty-six percent of people who order taxis through apps stated that they compare prices before booking a car (a 6 percentage point increase over six months).

Education: 22% studied online in the first half of the year

Sixty-seven percent of Ivanovs who attended courses in Q1 2021 (22% of the total number of respondents) studied online, with 43% trying online programs for the first time.

Of the respondents who studied online over the past year, 33% completed three to five courses and 32% completed one or two. Sixty-five percent paid for their courses. Programs were mainly hosted on specialized educational and social media platforms (53% and 38%, respectively).

Finance: 56% have no outstanding loans

Ivanovs are using their smartphones for financial transactions more actively: in June, the share of transactions made via mobile in the entire pool of payments reached 52% (compared to 47% a year earlier). Consequently, the proportion of transactions conducted at bank branches, ATMs, and via internet banking is declining.

Fifty-six percent of respondents noted that they have no outstanding bank loans. Of people who are repaying loans, 31% stated that no more than 20% of their monthly income is spent on loan payments.

In June, 21% of Ivanovs received cash loans for consumer purposes, with 9% of respondents taking out mortgage loans (1 percentage point lower than in June 2020).

Investing: 14% have a brokerage account

The proportion of Ivanovs who have a brokerage account online rose from 13% to 14% in Q2. Another 25% of respondents noted that they plan to open a brokerage account. The share of those who trade on a daily basis also increased by 1 percentage point, from 15% to 16%, however the number of people who are inactive in this regard also rose - from 20% to 26%. Fifty-five percent of respondents who have or plan to open a brokerage account intend to increase their investments on the stock market in the coming year.

The results of the June study differ significantly from those of the March study in terms of the reasons why Ivanovs are deciding to invest in the stock market. Low interest rates on bank deposits are now an even more important factor for respondents, with a 52% response rate (+15 percentage points compared to March). Fifty-six percent of survey participants mentioned higher returns from investing in securities, while 53% noted the convenience of opening and maintaining an online brokerage account (compared to 19% and 20%, respectively, in March).

ESG: 26% are willing to give up insufficiently eco-friendly products

The level of awareness among Ivanovs of ESG issues remains low, with a mere 6% of respondents knowing what the acronym means. Nevertheless, it is encouraging that 10% of respondents under 30 are aware of ESG.

The share of Ivanovs willing to overpay for goods and services that have a lower impact on the environment is still 22%, with 16% considering a 5% mark-up for eco-friendliness justified and 6% ready to pay even more. It is important to note that the proportion of people prepared to give up products that are insufficiently eco-friendly jumped 8 percentage points, reaching 26% in Q2 2021 compared to 18% in Q1.