SberIndex: Non-food retail backs demand

Household spending added 15.2% y-o-y on September 20-26, 2021.SberIndex analysts claim that the general spending level remains enhanced despite the lower demand amid retirees and servicemen depleting their government stimulus checks. The additional spending is due to non-food retail and the travel industry, which has been rebounding fast over the last few months.

Household spending added 15.2% y-o-y between September 20 and 26, 2021.

The demand keeps waning on the back of pensioners and servicemen exhausting their government stimulus checks. Spending has mainly shrunk in the food and services sectors (1.5-2 pp) since the last week.

The general spending level, however, remains increased, with the additional demand denser in non-food retail (+22.0% y-o-y vs +22.8% y-o-y a week before).

Reviving outbound tourism has been "eating off" 0.6-0.7% of the general household spending for the last three months. A reverse trend is observed, as compared to the year 2020. According to our estimates, USD 1.2 bn (nearly RUB 87 bn) of the money spent 'migrated' to foreign markets in July-September 2021.

However, considering the big picture worldwide, pandemic restrictions on overseas travel still support domestic demand. This year's outbound tourism will be about a fifth of the figures seen in 2019, and the rest of it has been forced to turn into local expenses.

The consumer activity index slid to 75.7 p last week amid the lower diversity of spending structure.

A reference to SberIndex (www.sberindex.ru) is mandatory when publishing the materials.

SberIndex.ru is an analytical website by Sberbank that illustrates how life in Russia has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, there are several key indices on the website based on anonymized data: a consumer activity index, changes to the activity index, and a tourism index. The evolution of gross payroll and changes to small business activity are presented in the Business section. The website also features research by SberIndex Lab (previously SberData), the Center for Macroeconomic Research, and more.

Here is a detailed study of the travel industry: Summer traveling 2021: Tourism spending in Russia climbing fast despite open borders as of September 27, 2021.