SberIndex: consumer spending growing at unprecedented rate

Between May 24 and 30, 2021, spending in Russia grew at a record rate of 7.2% compared to pre-pandemic.SberIndex analysts believe this is largely due to the revived labor market and incomes. Spending dynamics in the service sector suggests consumption has rebounded almost entirely.

Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending increased May 24-30, 2021, at a rate of 20.8% y-o-y.

Changes compared to weekly average figures for Feb 1-Mar 15, 2020. May 24-30, 2021, Russian spending growth accelerated further. Spending levels were 7.2% higher than pre-pandemic. This is a new record, which is largely due to the labor market and incomes rebounding further.

Growth is focused in the service sector (+5.0% since pre-pandemic vs. +2.2% a week before). As of the end of the last week, spending dynamics is a step away from the figures seen in food retail, which implies that all the core categories of consumer spending are close to full revival after the pandemic. However, the trend will have to be monitored for a few more weeks to make sure it's stable.

Importantly, people don't have to forego buying products to consume more services.

The consumer activity index stays close to its yearly highs reaching 74.5 p.

SberIndex analysts reiterate that over the next two months it will be exceedingly difficult to interpret the evolution of spending compared to last year's levels (% y-o-y), an integral part of the tracker, due to the extreme impact of the base effect. Stringent restrictions were put in place in April and May 2020, as a result of which consumption functioned at the minimum volume required to keep the economy moving. For a clearer representation of the evolution of current demand, a temporary comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 is being introduced (Feb 1 - Mar 15, 2020).

When publishing the materials, a reference to SberIndex (www.sberindex.ru) is mandatory.

SberIndex.ru is an analytical website by Sberbank that illustrates how life in Russia has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, you can find three key indices on the website based on anonymized data: a consumer activity index, changes to the activity index, and a tourism index. The evolution of gross payroll and changes to small business activity are presented in the Business section. The website also features research by SberIndex Lab (previously SberData), the Center for Macroeconomic Research, and more.