SberIndex: spending on hotels up 42% in Russia

On July 19-25, 2021, consumer activity somewhat weakened (-1.9 pp w-o-w) while remaining quite high.SberIndex analysts claim the demand for medication increased in July (up 20% y-o-y vs. 11.4% in June) and say that the transition to domestic tourism is stable in Russia.

Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending increased July 19-25, 2021, at a rate of 12.1% y-o-y.

Changes compared to weekly average figures for Feb 1-Mar 15, 2020. July 19 through July 25, 2021, consumer activity somewhat dropped w-o-w (-1.9 pp) while remaining quite high. Annualized household spending added 7.0% in nominal terms compared to pre-pandemic.

The increase in spending on medicines remains close to 20% y-o-y for the third week in a row. In June it increased by 11.4% y-o-y. Good news is the weekly evolution shows that the demand in this segment is declining, albeit slowly (-0.8 pp last week).

The data still have the features of a vacation season. Assumingly, about one-third of tourists' pre-pandemic spending outside Russia has steadily turned into domestic spending. Spending on hotels in Russia is up 42.1% since pre-pandemic, while abroad the metric is down 27.0% (both figures are annualized, the actual changes are even more striking). The spending on plane tickets also decreased, being 35% down since pre-pandemic.

SberIndex analysts reiterate the volatility of estimates remains high due to the base effect (the lockdown of April and May 2020 and its relief in June). For a clearer representation of the evolution of current demand, SberIndex suggests that a temporary comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 is introduced (Feb 1 - Mar 15, 2020) taking seasonal adjustments into account.

When publishing the materials, a reference to SberIndex (www.sberindex.ru) is mandatory.

SberIndex.ru is an analytical website by Sberbank that illustrates how life in Russia has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, you can find three key indices on the website based on anonymized data: a consumer activity index, changes to the activity index, and a tourism index. The evolution of gross payroll and changes to small business activity are presented in the Business section. The website also features research by SberIndex Lab (previously SberData), the Center for Macroeconomic Research, and more.