Sberbank : Real-time retail consumption tracker for April 19-25, 2021

• Over the next two months it will be exceedingly difficult to interpret the evolution of spending compared to last year's results (% y-o-y), an integral part of our tracker, due to the extreme impact of the base effect. Stringent restrictions were put in place in April and May 2020, as a result of which consumption functioned at the minimum volume required to keep the economy moving. For a clearer representation of current demand evolution, we are temporarily introducing a comparison with the fixed period of February and the first half of March 2020 (Feb 1- Mar 15, 2020).
• Nominal change (% y-o-y) without adjustments. Consumer spending surged April 19-25, 2021 by 36.9% y-o-y.
• Changes compared to weekly average figures for Feb 1-Mar 15, 2020. Consumer spending for April 19-25, 2021, was 5.1% higher than during the last pre-pandemic weeks. Demand somewhat slowed down compared to the previous week (-0.4 pp compared to April 12-18), which appears to be weather-related based on the spending structure.
• Spending in the service segment decreased slightly (-2.7% compared to the base period, while it was -1.1% a week earlier) primarily due to a spending drop in the Cafés, Bars, and Restaurants category (-17.5%). The colder weather could have had an impact here.
• Excellent growth was noted in the Hotels in Russia segment, with an increase of 25.9% compared to the base period, while the previous week saw an increase of 13.7%. It would appear that Russians are more actively planning holidays in the beginning of May, having received additional days off.
• There were no significant changes in the food retail sector (+5.6%). Spending in the Clothing, Footwear, and Accessories segment of the non-food sector fell considerably (+20.2% compared to +30.6% a week earlier). The weather likely also had an effect here.
• At 73.5 points, last week's consumer activity index fell slightly behind the yearly high.

Appendix 1. Changes in nominal spending by category, % y-o-y

Data marked with an asterisk (*) are normalized: evolution compared to Feb 1-Mar 15, 2020.

Category	Feb	Mar	29.03-04.04*	05.04-11.04*	12.04-18.04*	19.04-25.04*	19.04-25.04
All categories	2.6%	2.0%	5.3%	5.2%	5.5%	5.1%	36.9%
All goods, incl.	7.4%	5.9%	8.4%	7.3%	7.5%	8.1%	18.4%
food items	5.4%	-0.5%	5.2%	5.6%	5.9%	5.6%	-3.1%
non-food items	8.7%	10.1%	12.6%	8.2%	8.6%	9.5%	59.4%
Services	-13.5%	4.1%	-6.1%	-2.9%	-1.1%	-2.7%	100.6%
Duty Free	-76.8%	4.8%	-78.1%	-78.4%	-81.5%	-80.0%	2561.8%
Airline tickets	-71.3%	-12.7%	-64.5%	-63.1%	-59.2%	-59.3%	450.3%
Car dealerships and auto parts	5.7%	-2.9%	32.9%	N/A	54.6%	52.2%	80.3%
Business and industrial goods	-21.4%	-6.6%	-7.7%	-9.3%	-1.9%	-0.6%	26.2%
Household appliances	15.9%	15.3%	33.1%	21.4%	14.8%	20.8%	48.4%
Liquor stores	-0.6%	1.3%	1.4%	0.8%	4.1%	0.5%	-24.0%
Pets	-5.9%	-5.0%	7.1%	6.1%	4.8%	3.1%	3.7%
Tolls	-30.1%	-16.3%	-21.6%	-16.7%	N/A	-9.3%	141.5%
Train tickets	-19.6%	9.1%	7.6%	16.7%	29.4%	46.4%	534.6%
Housing and public utilities	5.5%	3.8%	-18.6%	4.2%	7.0%	6.3%	31.8%
IT services	33.0%	36.2%	58.6%	68.0%	61.0%	59.9%	174.6%
Stationery	-7.3%	3.6%	-13.4%	-18.4%	-21.6%	-21.9%	51.5%
Cafés, bars, restaurants	-21.6%	-0.6%	-20.9%	-18.0%	-12.4%	-17.5%	166.7%
Books, music, photos, videos	-16.3%	0.5%	-12.0%	-19.1%	-25.8%	-20.3%	76.9%
Computers and software	20.5%	21.4%	30.5%	10.1%	6.0%	3.4%	3.7%
Contractual services	23.9%	15.3%	54.8%	55.4%	50.8%	59.6%	42.9%
Medication and medical supplies	-6.4%	-1.6%	0.3%	-3.5%	-3.8%	-5.5%	8.7%
Local transport	-25.0%	3.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	121.8%
Furniture and home accessories	0.8%	6.8%	7.7%	-3.7%	-8.9%	-1.5%	120.4%
Healthcare services	-0.9%	4.5%	6.7%	9.3%	12.0%	7.0%	130.4%
Taxes, fines, public services	-21.0%	4.0%	-10.5%	-4.1%	-2.4%	-9.7%	241.9%
Education	-36.9%	-11.1%	-45.5%	-51.8%	-54.5%	-45.4%	39.7%
Advertisement	-12.3%	-7.7%	-1.2%	1.4%	1.3%	0.3%	39.6%
Clothing, footwear, accessories	16.9%	15.3%	36.5%	33.3%	30.6%	20.2%	813.4%
Hotels in Russia	9.7%	21.9%	13.4%	12.7%	13.7%	25.9%	823.9%
Hotels abroad	-82.3%	-22.1%	-57.7%	-57.2%	-61.5%	-55.3%	871.6%
Parking and garages	-33.6%	-3.7%	N/A	N/A	-29.1%	-26.8%	267.1%
Grocery stores	4.8%	-0.5%	5.7%	6.0%	6.1%	6.0%	-1.0%
Entertainment	-32.9%	28.1%	-31.2%	-25.9%	-17.4%	-29.3%	359.0%
Beauty salons, massages, spas	-11.2%	4.3%	-6.9%	-6.4%	-6.0%	-5.4%	408.7%
Service	-4.9%	-4.7%	23.0%	N/A	66.0%	42.5%	74.6%
Sport	18.8%	27.7%	22.1%	17.1%	16.7%	13.3%	330.6%
Insurance	86.0%	38.3%	87.1%	86.6%	105.8%	102.8%	28.1%
Taxis, car rental, car-sharing	-16.1%	-6.4%	-20.8%	-20.0%	-1.2%	-15.7%	114.5%
Telecommunications equipment and services	33.4%	9.7%	15.2%	-1.8%	-8.2%	-1.9%	24.4%
Health and beauty products	-4.0%	5.9%	-19.2%	-22.3%	-21.4%	-20.6%	119.9%
Building products	1.9%	2.1%	16.3%	16.1%	29.1%	46.1%	26.0%
Fuel and car service	7.4%	3.3%	5.8%	8.5%	8.2%	11.7%	37.0%
Travel agencies	-6.2%	156.6%	82.4%	60.0%	63.3%	51.3%	1820.7%
Department stores	16.1%	12.8%	13.5%	10.2%	12.9%	12.6%	-18.3%
Hobbies	-0.2%	0.3%	-4.9%	7.3%	5.8%	-2.6%	40.0%
Flowers and gifts	-5.0%	16.8%	-20.5%	-21.5%	N/A	-15.7%	85.2%
Dry cleaning and clothing/shoe repair	-43.9%	-7.6%	0.2%	0.5%	1.9%	-9.9%	125.4%
Jewelry stores	-0.9%	8.6%	N/A	N/A	-1.0%	-20.2%	769.9%