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Market Closed -
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5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 207.95 USD | +1.04% |
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-9.40% | -8.68% |
| Jul. 16 | Goldman Sachs Adjusts Price Target on Progressive to $225 From $239, Maintains Buy Rating | MT |
| Jul. 16 | BofA Securities Adjusts Price Target on Progressive to $308 From $313 | MT |
Projected Income Statement: Progressive Corporation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 46,405 | 51,081 | 61,550 | 74,424 | 83,174 | 87,539 | 93,451 | 100,120 |
| Change | - | 10.08% | 20.5% | 20.92% | 11.76% | 5.25% | 6.75% | 7.14% |
| EBITDA | - | - | 5,472 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT | 4,429 | 1,166 | 5,172 | 10,992 | - | - | - | - |
| Change | - | -73.68% | 343.73% | 112.52% | - | - | - | - |
| Interest Paid 1 | -218.6 | -243.5 | -268.4 | -279 | -278 | -330.9 | -362.5 | -345.8 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 4,210 | 922.1 | 4,904 | 10,713 | 14,223 | 13,655 | 12,202 | 11,875 |
| Change | - | -78.1% | 431.8% | 118.47% | 32.76% | -3.99% | -10.64% | -2.67% |
| Net income 1 | 3,351 | 721.5 | 3,902 | 8,480 | 11,308 | 10,788 | 9,562 | 9,315 |
| Change | - | -78.47% | 440.87% | 117.3% | 33.35% | -4.59% | -11.36% | -2.58% |
| Announcement Date | 1/26/22 | 1/25/23 | 1/24/24 | 1/29/25 | 1/28/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Progressive Corporation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt | - | 3,323 | 6,804 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Change | - | - | 104.75% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 1/26/22 | 1/25/23 | 1/24/24 | 1/29/25 | 1/28/26 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Progressive Corporation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 223.5 | 243.5 | 292 | 252 | 285 | 348 |
| Change | - | 8.95% | 19.92% | -13.7% | 13.1% | 22.11% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | -5,334 | 11,285 | 3,203 | 11,529 | 17,324 | 11,832 |
| Change | - | 311.59% | -71.62% | 259.95% | 50.26% | -31.7% |
| Announcement Date | 3/1/21 | 2/28/22 | 2/27/23 | 2/26/24 | 3/3/25 | 3/2/26 |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Progressive Corporation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | |||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | - | - | - | 8.89% | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT Margin (%) | - | 9.54% | 2.28% | 8.4% | 14.77% | - | - | - | - |
| EBT Margin (%) | - | 9.07% | 1.81% | 7.97% | 14.39% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 13.06% | 11.86% |
| Net margin (%) | - | 7.22% | 1.41% | 6.34% | 11.39% | 13.6% | 12.32% | 10.23% | 9.3% |
| FCF margin (%) | - | - | 12.84% | 16.88% | - | - | - | - | - |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | - | - | 908.77% | 266.28% | - | - | - | - | - |
Profitability | |||||||||
| ROA | - | 4.96% | 0.98% | 4.75% | 8.72% | 9.89% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% |
| ROE | - | 12.19% | 13% | 21.58% | 36.98% | 38.38% | 32.04% | 24.93% | 21.72% |
Financial Health | |||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 0.71x | 1.03x | 3.66x | 1.28x | 0.62x | 0.47x | - | - | - |
| Debt / Free cash flow | -1.03x | 0.43x | 1.97x | 0.61x | 0.4x | 0.59x | - | - | - |
Capital Intensity | |||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | - | 0.52% | 0.57% | 0.41% | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | - | - | - | 4.61% | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | - | - | 4.45% | 2.43% | - | - | - | - | - |
Items per share | |||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | - | - | 11.67 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend per Share 1 | - | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.15 | 4.9 | 13.9 | 9.481 | 7.249 | 6.618 |
| Change | - | - | -78.95% | 187.5% | 326.09% | 183.67% | -31.79% | -23.54% | -8.71% |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | - | 30.35 | 26.32 | 33.8 | 43.67 | 51.74 | 61.86 | 71.45 | 79.13 |
| Change | - | - | -13.28% | 28.42% | 29.2% | 18.48% | 19.55% | 15.5% | 10.76% |
| EPS 1 | - | 5.66 | 1.18 | 6.58 | 14.4 | 19.23 | 18.21 | 16.55 | 16.41 |
| Change | - | - | -79.15% | 457.63% | 118.84% | 33.54% | -5.32% | -9.11% | -0.87% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | - | 585,064 | 585,070 | 584,961 | 585,812 | 586,397 | 581,400 | 581,400 | 581,400 |
| Announcement Date | - | 1/26/22 | 1/25/23 | 1/24/24 | 1/29/25 | 1/28/26 | - | - | - |
| 2026 * | 2027 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.4x | 12.6x |
| PBR | 3.36x | 2.91x |
| EV / Sales | 1.38x | 1.29x |
| Yield | 4.56% | 3.49% |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Trader
This super rating is the result of a weighted average of the rankings based on the following ratings: Valuation (Composite), EPS Revisions (4 months), and Visibility (Composite). We recommend that you carefully review the associated descriptions.
Investor
This super composite rating is the result of a weighted average of the rankings based on the following ratings: Fundamentals (Composite), Valuation (Composite), EPS Revisions (1 year), and Visibility (Composite). We recommend that you carefully review the associated descriptions.
Global
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Quality
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ESG MSCI
The MSCI ESG score assesses a company’s environmental, social, and governance practices relative to its industry peers. Companies are rated from CCC (laggard) to AAA (leader). This rating helps investors incorporate sustainability risks and opportunities into their investment decisions.
Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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