REA : PropTrack Housing Market Indicators Report April 2022

Housing Market Indicators Report

Author: Eleanor Creagh, Senior Economist

About

PropTrack's Housing Market Indicators is a monthly report combining eight key metrics to provide an up-to-date view of the property market and emerging trends.

The report analyses consumer behaviour in real time by extracting property market insights from the millions of Australians who visit realestate.com.au each month.

Key metrics include search activity, email enquiry, views per listing, weekly sales of properties listed for sale on realestate.com.au, days on site of properties sold, filtered searches by price and by bedroom.

Executive summary

The housing market has passed its peak and moderating expectations are fuelling an ongoing slowdown. Though activity has moderated, properties are still selling quickly across the country but some regions remain stronger than others.

The housing market started the year on a strong footing. The momentum from 2021's record-breaking run has moderated but continues to propel markets, although housing price growth has slowed considerably in 2022.

Last month, we observed some tempering from record-level highs across a number of metrics. That slowdown has become more evident in March, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

There are divergent trends emerging across the country as some regions slow more quickly than others.

Demand from prospective buyers continues to moderate from the extreme levels witnessed in 2021. Again, this is more evident in Sydney than cities like Adelaide and Perth.

Regional areas continue to see a constrained stock of available properties for sale, which is supporting price growth in these markets as well as per listing demand.

Sellers are confident in listing their properties and it's been the busiest start to the year for new listings since 2014. In February, total sale listings were higher year-on-year in 29 of the 88 SA4 regions across the country. More than one-third of these SA4 regions were in Greater Sydney. This increased volume of available stock is easing the intense competition that dominated the Sydney market last year. 2021 was a seller's market and overwhelmingly so, this year has brought much more balance as dynamics shift in favour of buyers.

Buyers continue to take advantage of the extra choice available to them since last year and sales volumes remain strong, so far tracking the start of 2021 almost like-for-like. There seems to be a sense of urgency to transact, perhaps before interest rates rise later this year. Although, when it comes to transaction volumes, there are some different trends emerging across the country.

Where to from here?

Last week, we saw an uptick in auction volumes as sellers raced to market in a pre-Easter Super Saturday surge. More homes went to auction than any other week so far this year.

But for the rest of April, both buyers and sellers may perhaps be less active as we navigate the Easter break and Anzac Day. Then there's the upcoming federal election to contest with.

It could be that much of the activity we have seen to date is fuelled by an urgency to transact before the election and rate rises.

Looking ahead, there are headwinds that will continue to slow housing prices from the surge recorded over the past year, given the benefits of lower mortgage rates have already been converted into higher prices. The average rate on new mortgages has risen since last year and housing affordability will worsen as repayments become more expensive with rising interest rates.