• The United States and China are the two main export markets for spirits. Washington has imposed heavy tariffs, while Beijing has been less welcoming since November. At the time, the European Union took measures against Chinese electric vehicles, to which China responded with taxes of up to 39% on European spirits, particularly affecting French cognac.

These tariff barriers have severely hampered sales of brands such as Hennessy (LVMH), Martell (Pernod Ricard) and Rémy Cointreau.

Rémy Cointreau is rebounding particularly strongly today, as it was the hardest hit by the tax, which cost the sector €50m per month. Here is an article published last week by MarketScreener on a possible low point for Cointreau shares.

However, the situation has changed since then. With the return of customs duties and the uncertainty that comes with them, Beijing is seeking to ease trade tensions in order to strengthen its international relations.

Last week, the Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao was in Paris for an OECD meeting. He met with his French counterpart. No formal agreement was announced, but the discussions clearly focused on this dispute. "The two sides have reached a consensus on resolving economic and trade issues through dialogue and consultation," Wang said. His French counterpart, meanwhile, reiterated that cognac was a non-negotiable priority.

A way out of the crisis seems credible. China is preparing to publish the results of its investigation just before a summit with the European Union, organized to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations. In January, both blocs had already said they were ready to work on resolving their differences ahead of the summit.

In this context, everything points to an agreement being reached quickly. The precise terms remain unclear, but the political intention is clear: avoid spoiling the party and restart trade.

Shares concerned are on the up with this good news:

Pernod Ricard: +3.16%

Rémy Cointreau: +5%