Royal KPN : KPN Q1 2020 Results (Consensus)

Consensus Q1 '20

Analyst forecasts for the period ending 31 Mar 2020

Please note that this analyst consensus is subject to the disclaimer below:

The analyst consensus is based on forecasts provided by various leading equity analysts covering the KPN share.

The analyst consensus for the Q1 2020 period and full fiscal years 2020-2021 is based on the non-weighted average of 15 analyst forecasts (vs. 16 in Q4 2019).

The analyst forecasts were submitted to KPN in the period of 13 Mar 2020 to 27 Mar 2020. The consensus was published at 27 Mar 2020 at 17:45 CET.

The analyst consensus does not in any way represent KPN's financial expectations nor can this be considered to be a forward looking statement by KPN. The analyst consensus is provided for information purposes only, for the convenience of our investors. KPN is not responsible and cannot be held liable in any way for the accuracy, completeness or validity of the analyst consensus, nor for the figures, calculations or assumptions that have led thereto.

		Consolidated figures			Q1 '20				FY '20				FY '21
				Average	Median	High	Low	Average	Median	High	Low	Average	Median	High	Low
		Adjusted revenues
		Consumer		711	713	720	693	2,860	2,872	2,899	2,788	2,861	2,868	2,920	2,775
		Business		484	486	499	456	1,954	1,958	2,004	1,882	1,919	1,936	1,978	1,799
		Wholesale		147	146	159	141	599	594	644	575	606	600	664	576
		Network, Operations & IT		2	2	4	1	7	6	16	6	7	6	16	6
		Other (incl. eliminations)		-24	-23	-15	-31	-88	-102	-60	-120	-88	-100	-59	-120
		Total adjusted revenues		1,321	1,322	1,347	1,278	5,331	5,343	5,418	5,222	5,305	5,327	5,394	5,139
		Revenues incidentals		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Total reported revenues		1,321	1,322	1,347	1,278	5,331	5,343	5,418	5,222	5,318	5,346	5,506	5,139
		Operating expenses excl. D&A
		Cost of goods & services
			307	304	328	298	1,264	1,277	1,336	1,104	1,264	1,284	1,326	1,097
		Personnel expenses		261	257	281	242	956	958	1,025	890	925	914	1,039	846
		IT/TI		82	82	85	79	320	320	340	308	299	302	340	270
		Other operating expenses		91	97	113	73	382	392	449	309	334	351	410	176
		Total operating expenses excl. D&A		747	746	796	710	2,962	2,971	3,063	2,901	2,881	2,865	3,071	2,798
		Opex incidentals		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Opex restructuring		-26	-26	-13	-30	-100	-100	-50	-140	-91	-90	-50	-140
		Total adjusted operating expenses		721	720	766	685	2,861	2,862	2,941	2,802	2,777	2,767	2,880	2,713
		Adjusted EBITDA
		EBITDA		577	577	590	567	2,377	2,390	2,415	2,319	2,444	2,452	2,530	2,323
		Incidentals		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Restructuring		26	26	30	13	100	100	140	50	91	90	140	50
		Lease-related expenses
		Depreciation right-of-use asset		-34	-34	-32	-38	-135	-136	-124	-145	-135	-137	-124	-145
		Interest lease liabilities		-8	-8	-6	-9	-28	-28	-24	-33	-28	-28	-24	-33
		Adjusted EBITDA after leases		561	561	569	554	2,315	2,314	2,346	2,275	2,372	2,369	2,450	2,267
		P&L items cont'd
		Depreciation		242	243	252	224	967	970	1,010	900	944	955	1,020	840
		Amortization		130	134	138	100	524	540	552	400	523	540	547	400
		Total D&A		373	375	390	350	1,498	1,510	1,549	1,400	1,479	1,492	1,562	1,380
		Operating profit
			203	208	225	186	878	886	993	774	964	963	1,070	782
		Profit for the period
			100	94	131	81	472	484	577	359	570	582	673	379
		Earnings per share (non-diluted) from continuing operations (in €)
			0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.11	0.12	0.14	0.10	0.14	0.14	0.16	0.11
		Dividend per share (in € cents) - Regular		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	13.2	13.0	13.8	13.0	14.1	13.8	16.0	13.0
		Dividend per share (in € cents) - Additional		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.6	0.0
		Dividend per share (in € cents) - Total		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	13.2	13.0	14.3	13.0	14.2	13.7	16.0	13.0
		Free cash flow
		EBITDA		577	577	590	567	2,377	2,390	2,415	2,319	2,444	2,452	2,530	2,323
		Interest received/(paid)		-101	-101	-76	-126	-272	-268	-255	-294	-247	-243	-226	-271
		Taxes received/(paid)		-2	0	0	-6	-19	-20	-8	-33	-26	-25	-8	-100
		Change in provisions		0	0	5	-8	-15	-12	0	-40	-11	-6	0	-40
		Change in working capital		-79	-72	-50	-120	-69	-70	-40	-90	-37	-31	4	-75
		Other movements (incl. TEFD dividend)		-1	0	1	-4	-2	0	4	-17	0	0	20	-17
		Net cash flow from operating activities		395	390	444	360	2,003	2,004	2,037	1,980	2,124	2,142	2,209	2,026
		Capex
			-268	-260	-246	-320	-1,095	-1,100	-1,050	-1,120	-1,106	-1,100	-1,091	-1,150
		Proceeds from real estate		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
		Repayment of lease liabilities		-51	-57	-34	-57	-140	-140	-124	-160	-140	-140	-124	-160
		FCF		75	81	112	47	768	765	813	744	877	901	962	740
		Telefónica Deutschland dividend		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		FCF (excl. TEFD dividend)		75	81	112	47	768	765	813	744	877	901	962	740

KPN Analyst Consensus Q1 2020.xlsx

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