-30.7%. That was the change in Saia's share price at the close of trading in New York on Friday. The decline now exceeds 60% since the historic highs reached last November.

This is due to Q1 figures that are far, very far, from analysts' expectations. EPS came in at $1.86. The FactSet consensus was $2.76. Revenue came in at $787.6m, well below the $812.8m expected. These figures are all the more disappointing given that analysts had already lowered their expectations in recent weeks.

There are many reasons for this poor financial performance. First, the market has slowed down. Saia had a particularly prolific year in 2023 following the bankruptcy of Yellow Corp, which enabled Saia to acquire 28 terminals at a good price. The group then focused last year on integrating these sites and relocating other terminals. However, customers are now taking a wait-and-see approach in light of the potential damage that a trade war could cause to the US economy.

On top of that, Saia now has to deal with extra costs because it increased its capacity by 25% to 30% in recent months.

There is also the issue of interest charges, which have weighed heavily on earnings per share. Debt has increased by $200m as a result of acquisitions. The current level of interest rates is obviously not helping the company.

Finally, the group is experiencing more severe than normal winter weather conditions. This has required additional staff and equipment to compensate for delays and downtime at various affected sites.

Looking ahead, investors have been alerted by the pessimistic tone of management. CFO Matt Battesh believes that at this stage, Saia "does not see any indication that seasonality is returning." This situation is particularly problematic given that Saia has little room for maneuver on pricing. If prices rise, customers will choose other options.

Although particularly challenging and surprising this quarter, Saia's difficulties are not isolated. The US's inward turn is hurting the entire logistics sector. This climate is contributing to increased freight rate volatility, making profit forecasts—and therefore visibility—more complicated and also reducing demand. FedEx felt the pinch when it released its Q3 results a little over a month ago. The North American leader pointed to the potential consequences of a trade war on business and predicted a year of decline. Old Dominion, the second-largest player in the LTL market, fared better when it released its financial statements last week. Analysts had widely anticipated a normalization of results, so the company actually performed slightly better than expected.

The logistics sector, one of the main barometers of the US economy, will remain under pressure in the coming months. The effects of Donald Trump's policies are particularly difficult to anticipate. They come on top of an already difficult context, marked by normalization after years of exceptional post-pandemic recovery.