COMMENTED SLIDES / 2020 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
Company Representatives Klaus Rosenfeld, CEO Dr. Klaus Patzak, CFO
Matthias Zink, CEO Automotive Technologies Division Dr. Jochen Schröder, Head of E-Mobility Business Division Michael Söding, CEO Automotive Aftermarket Division Dr. Stefan Spindler, CEO Industrial Division
Renata Casaro, Head of Investor Relations
Capital Markets Day (Active) Participants
Henning Cosman, HSBC
Victoria Anne Greer, Morgan Stanley
Sascha Gommel, Jefferies
Michael Raab, Kepler Cheuvreux
Horst Schneider, Bank of America
Christoph Laskawi, Deutsche Bank
Akshat Kacker, JP Morgan Chase
Sabrina Reeh, UBS
Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Schaeffler Group Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
If any participant has difficulties hearing the conference, please the star key followed by "0" on your telephone for operator assistance.
At our reserved customer's request, this conference will be recorded, and the replay will be available shortly after the call on the website.
May I now hand you over to Renata Casaro, who will lead you through this confer- ence. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Dear investors, dear analysts, good afternoon. Welcome to the Schaeffler Group 2020 Capital Markets Day. This webcast is conducted in audio mode only, with synchronized slides. The PDF of our presentations will be uploaded later on our website, around 3 p.m. CET.
You have received last night our mid-term targets 2025 via ad-hoc communication. The CMD is dedicated to illustrate to you the strategic direction behind the targets.
With me and my Investor Relations team today, in Herzogenaurach, are our present- ers: Mr. Klaus Rosenfeld, CEO Schaeffler Group, Dr. Klaus Patzak, CFO Schaeffler Group, Mr. Matthias Zink, CEO Automotive Technologies Division, Dr. Jochen Schrö- der, Head of E-Mobility Business Division, Mr. Michael Söding, CEO Automotive After- market Division, and Dr. Stefan Spindler, CEO Industrial Division.
Our agenda for today is quick and you will have time for your questions right at the end.
The discussion today will be conducted as usual under the disclaimer.
Without further ado, I hand over now to Mr. Klaus Rosenfeld, Schaeffler Group CEO. Klaus, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Renata. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our Capital Markets Day 2020 and thanks for joining this conference call.
The purpose of this Capital Markets Day 2020 is to share with you our strategic direction and take you through how we want to unlock and create sustainable long-term value for Schaeffler Group.
The basis for this is our new Roadmap 2025 that the Executive Board has finalized during the year 2020 and that is being implemented.
Today, we want to deliver on this task in basically four steps: where we stand, where we play, how we win, and how we create value. All my divisional colleagues will use the same logic for their presentations.
Let me start with where we stand from a Group perspective.
You all know: Schaeffler is more than just an automotive supplier. We are an automotive and industrial supplier with a strong joint core that comes from our technology and innovation.
We excel because of our best-in-class manufacturing technology. Our business is well diversified, not only from a customer point of view serving 10 customer sectors, but also from a product point of view with a wide range of components, systems and increasingly services, with our global footprint and also a strong team of people, but also from a regional point of view.
As you see from the chart, today 36% or more than one third of our business is in Asia, in our two regions Asia/Pacific and China, and with 23% of our sales coming from China, China has become the second most important region for us with the fastest growth track record, driven both by Automotive and Industrial, and we see significant potential, not only because of the just duly signed regional comprehensive economic partnership in the region Asia/Pacific.
The year 2020 was a challenging year for us. It was a stress test for any organization and also for us on all levels. I think we can say that we manage this crisis well and we are proud of what we have achieved not only regarding health and safety for our em- ployees, business continuity, but also regarding fast-forwarding new ways of cooperating within the company and with our customers and business partners.
Our focus in coping with this crisis was clearly in two directions. On the one hand, as you know, we implemented a range of tactical measures, a transitory response to the crisis situation, and on the other hand we in parallel focused on the necessary structural measures, the transformation response in shaping the future of Schaeffler.
This has then led to this final Roadmap 2025. You all remember that we wanted to share the strategic direction with you all already at the beginning of this year, but we had to shift gears because of the crisis. That clearly gave us the chance to sharpen the concept and also integrate, with Dr. Klaus Patzak coming on board, the new aspects, the new risks and also the new opportunities that are part of the "new normal" that the crisis has brought to us.
Our new claim "We pioneer motion" was already unveiled to you during our Annual General Meeting. But with hindsight, I think it is fair to say that it has now even gained more in its meaning and its intensity for us as a guiding claim into the future. And you will see from the presentations of my colleagues how we want to pioneer motion across our businesses.
The three directions of our new Roadmap 2025 are best represented by the words "Transform", "Focus", and "Execute".
Or, as you see on this page, nicely represented by the structure of my presentation going forward: Where do we play? How do we win? And how do we create value?
On that basis, let me already at this point in time summarize and illustrate how we want to do this and what it means in Transform, Focus, and Execute going forward.
"Transform" clearly goes to the main key strategic priorities of our three Divisions. You know that Schaeffler is more than simply three pure plays.
In Automotive Technologies - Matthias will explain that to you - we want to accelerate and we are determined to accelerate the portfolio shift to E-Mobility. In Automotive Aftermarket - Michael will illustrate this - we want to secure and maintain our high margin and at the same time open the business for more third-party repair solu- tions. And in Industrial - Stefan will outline that - we see a significant opportunity to enter attractive new growth fields, but we will stay focused on further enhancing our profitability and bring it to best-practice levels.
These are the three main directions for the businesses. But once again: Schaeffler is more than just three pure plays. That has to do with our core competencies. In this environment, we will focus even more on these core competencies. We will focus on realizing the synergistic benefits that this company offers across the divisional businesses and we will deliver - very important - the impact that sustainability needs by activating all levers.
The third topic, "Execution", clearly is something that we want to continue our operational discipline and remain consistent and forceful in our implementation. It has to do with the relentless focus on Free Cash Flow as our main differentiating factor and it has to do with a compelling capital allocation strategy as well as our M&A strategy going forward.
All of this shall lead to a long-term sustainable value creation.
And so to the second chapter: Where do we play?
Here, I want to back up for a moment and talk about the key trends for us as Schaeffler Group: sustainability and climate change, new mobility and electrified powertrain, autonomous production, data economy and digitalization and also demographic change. I think it is fair to say that at least three of these trends have been amplified by the crisis and give us even more support going forward.
The trends then lead into focus areas. Here we have worked as part of our Roadmap quite a bit to determine the areas where we want to focus on. Don't just take these areas as one-to-one links into the Divisions: CO₂-efficient drives is not only cars; it is also trucks and buses and it may even be extended into off-road, rail and other mobility devices.
The same holds true for Chassis. Chassis is clearly something where we want to excel in the car and light commercial vehicle area, but also rail offers chassis applications.
3 and 4 are more industrial areas: Industrial machinery & equipment is clearly driven by the autonomous production - Stefan will talk about this - and the whole area of renewable energies is not only Wind, but also other opportunities that the new environment offers. That together with Aftermarket solutions, but also the services that go again across the three Divisions explain these focus areas.
I would also like to highlight that we are not only present in attractive markets, but delivering our solutions, our value to a broader customer base is crucial. Here we think we serve ten joint customer sectors where we align across the Divisions and try to bring best value to our customers by focusing on these five focus areas.
Let me take this one level further. Delivering value to our customers is a function of meeting customer requirements and this is what you see on this page with the cus- tomer/product matrix. It is all about leveraging our technological core competencies.
Here we see five key action fields, the further push into electrified powertrain and mechatronic systems, opening up the Aftermarket for third-party products, new markets and channels, driving system and service solutions in Industrial applications across the board, and further sustain investments in the whole area of renewable energies.
On top of this, there is a fifth opportunity that comes from the Hydrogen area. We want to harness this opportunity as a joint Automotive and Industrial growth initia- tive. My colleagues will explain this in more detail.
If you look at these five key action fields: Where else do you get an automotive supplier that is determined not only to conquer a leadership position in E-Mobility, but also offers a preeminent position in the Wind business? You all know that E-Mobility only makes sense if the energy that is needed for the electrification comes from green sources. And here you see the beautiful end-to-end perspective that Schaeffler offers both from the E-Mobility and the Wind business in Industrial.
Let me give another prominent example, coming back to Hydrogen, how we, as an integrated supplier, create value across the Divisions.
I think it is fair to say that Hydrogen offers, for Schaeffler in particular, a unique op- portunity. Why is that? Because Hydrogen goes to the heart of what we do best and it goes to the heart of our best-in-class production and manufacturing technology, metal sheet forming, unique coating and surface technology and a deep understanding of different materials.
Why is that important? Because both in fuel cells - fuel cells are determined for usage of Hydrogen - and also in electrolyzers that are determined for the production of Hy- drogen, the core is a bipolar plate or something similar and the bipolar plate is nothing else than a function of our core technology.
It is not only the manufacturing excellence here that counts, but also the proven excellence of Schaeffler in the industrialization of these small components. We are the ones that can deliver in quality, but also in scale at levels that others can't do. That is why we feel strongly that Schaeffler is a key partner and will be a key partner for best- in-class components and systems, both in the fuel cell, but even more so in the elec- trolyzer world. So Hydrogen is a perfect example to show why this company is more than just three Divisions.
Let me go from there into how we win.
How we win is always a question of what your core competencies are. Here, once again, you see our main manufacturing technologies: from forging, cold forming, heat treatment to coating, winding and assembly.
But it is not only the manufacturing technology that counts; it is more than that. We have not only one USP. We think that four USPs are characteristic for Schaeffler. On the one hand, the strong innovation power, second, the superior quality we offer to our customers with a long, long track record, the manufacturing excellence and then, last but not least, the comprehensive system understanding both in Automotive and in Industrial, also covering the Aftermarket business.
If we combine these four USPs to one unique strength, then we are in the right place and then we will be able to even more so leverage the synergistic potential that sits in this company.
And here it starts again with the scope of the interdependencies of the different busi- nesses. We are using the same production technologies, we have equal materials and components and we have a comprehensive intellectual property and research development that is shared among the businesses.
But it is not only the scope of the businesses, it is also the economies of scale that play an important role. This scope allows us to procure jointly and to leverage our supply chains. It allows clearly for shared services and shared functions and we enjoy since years a complementary regional presence and a global footprint that also makes us stronger together.
What then, on top of this, makes it even more interesting is the potential for technology transfer between the Divisions. We have as part of our new Roadmap defined eight dedicated innovation clusters that go across. We share the electrification and mechatronic know-how. Here, robotics is a great example where elements that were developed in the Automotive area are now used for a growth initiative in Industrial. And clearly the system understanding, our simulation capabilities, our market expertise across the sectors is a key element of why this company offers such potential.
Our new claim "We pioneer emotion" expresses this logic and it is clear that also the Schaeffler brand integrates this and should help us to push this company forward.
That then goes into the most important aspect of every business and that is a high- performance culture, but in particular people. We know and we are determined to share that with you: Our people drive our success. We will invest further in qualifica- tion, as we have always done. We like the aspect of diversity and inclusion and we will clearly use also the "new normal" to foster collaboration with more interdisciplinary approaches across the various Divisions. Qualification, diversity and collaboration are key success factors going forward.
Even more so is sustainability. On this page, you see our commitment, our sustainability goals. We want to make this company carbon neutral in its production in 2030. That is the committed sustainability goal, next to the five others that are listed on this page.
The Board has clearly subscribed to an integrated approach across all Divisions, functions and regions. We have set up a Sustainability Committee and accepted sustainability targets and integrated them into our Board compensation and also cascaded them down into the next levels.
We have a roadmap, a structured approach with clearly defined action fields and this approach covers the entire value chain: suppliers, operations and products. And even more so, the sustainability is not only about compliance. It is not only about all employees driving impact every day in production along the supply chain. It is very much a business opportunity for us - I mentioned that before - to deliver innovative products and innovative solutions to our customers in all our Divisions.
That leads me to the next chapter: How do we create value? How do we want to create even more value?
That starts with reinforcing operational discipline. We have done quite a bit in the last two years to make progress in that direction. I think you would agree with me that the execution of the various efficiency measures reducing headcount has been a continuous effort. The divisionalization has been stringently implemented in 2018 after being initiated in 2017. That now gives us a solid structure.
Also the divisional efficiency programs - RACE, GRIP and FIT - that you know gain traction together with the new comprehensive structural measures announced in September 2020.
On top of this, our capital management logic that we introduced in 2018 with the reinvestment rate as the main KPI has been implemented. It shows impact. The trend from the last two years has been reversed where the reinvestment rate was significantly above 1. And we are clear and determined to further drive this capital allocation logic into the organization and into the next years. So I think we can say there is a proven track record of successfully implementing efficiency measures.
That leads me to our Free Cash Flow. Since the listing of Schaeffler, we always stressed that Free Cash Flow is the area where we want to differentiate ourselves. We focus on Free Cash Flow not only in our compensation, but as a key driver of our new financial framework. The compelling use of cash remains key to build on this strength and to generate value going forward.
You all know the cash formula and you know the drivers behind this. You also know that we have implemented and started a new comprehensive restructuring program announced in September with around 700 million of restructuring cash out; that is known to the market. With our Free Cash Flow generation, we will be able to fund this and Klaus will explain this in more detail.
When it comes to the usage of cash, I just would like to confirm at this juncture that we are determined also going forward to pay a decent dividend out of Free Cash Flow that we generate - more to come on M&A and the other aspects of this formula. That is, if I may say so, not a rigid hierarchy, but a good formula to understand sources and uses of cash.
Let me come to the next page and that then all sums it up. At the end of the day, it is all about capital allocation. We introduced to you some time ago the portfolio management logic, but also the new capital allocation framework that links the reinvestment rate on Group level also to the portfolio elements, the different portfolio strat- egies.
Matthias has been very good with that and introducing that in his divisional strategy and we will continue with that strategy.
The credo of our capital allocation process remains "earning the right to grow" and that is a very good yardstick to determine where capital should go and where it should not go.
Let me, before I come to my final slide, say some words on our M&A strategy. As shown by the latest acquisitions that we did, we clearly focus on compelling M&A. We want to stay very disciplined in that respect and do M&A if it complements and strengthens our business portfolio.
We have our radar on with seven search fields. We will continue to focus on small and mid-sizedbolt-on acquisitions. We believe that the market is likely to present some interesting opportunities within the next 24 months. These acquisition opportunities are proactively screened across all three Divisions and I can assure you that we will do this process as we will do the execution process: in a very disciplined manner with clear guidelines that Klaus will explain further.
So, Schaeffler is well positioned to capitalize not only on the organic growth opportu- nities, but also on attractive external opportunities.
Now, before I hand over to Matthias, let me come to my final slide and just briefly explain the rationale of our mid-term targets that Klaus will share with you in more detail.
Our mid-term targets are, from my point of view, comprehensive because they cover the Group and now for the first time also the three Divisions. They are bold because we give you in an uncertain environment for a five-year period a walk, a direction for each of our businesses. And they are balanced because they include Free Cash Flow at Group level and this is the main differentiating factor for Schaeffler, as well as the return on capital employed as a key measure for capital efficiency and value creation.
Let me finish by saying: I also believe that they are robust because we have given you a strong floor. We want to guarantee to you that we have a dependable floor and we are determined to also overachieve the ranges that we have given you.
With that, Matthias, I hand over to you for the second part, Automotive Technologies.
Thank you, Klaus.
Ladies and gentlemen, where do we, Automotive Technologies, stand?
Together with established and new customers worldwide, we are proactively shaping the transition to innovative propulsion systems and to advanced chassis technologies. We are and we will continue to be both a component and systems supplier and we are well regionalized with more than 20% of our sales in Greater China and the Amer- icas each.
Following our full year 2020 guidance, our sales will decline by 13 to 14.5% while still achieving a positive EBIT from 1 to 2%.
The market out there is still highly uncertain, as Klaus already elaborated. Therefore, we have decided to plan conservatively to secure the floor and we took here, as the Schaeffler Base Scenario, the pessimistic IHS numbers as a basis. Hence, we will be operating with maximum cost discipline, but at the same time with maximum flexibil- ity.
As you can see here, we have extended our powertrain scenario to the year 2035. We believe that hybridization will reach its tipping point in about 2030. At the same time, we are convinced that electrification will accelerate strongly, up to 50% of the new vehicles, and that we, as Schaeffler, will play a decisive role in shaping this transformation with our USPs.
Ladies and gentlemen, where do we play?
A strict and consistent management of our portfolio will be the key to making this transformation a success. Therefore, we have divided our business into two clusters: the Mature Business being the foundation and the New Business.
As you can see, we also have some business fields that are even completely unaffected by powertrain technology; we call these agnostic.
Within those two clusters, Mature on the left side and New on the right side, the businesses are further divided into the four categories shown here, namely Harvest, Exit/Divest, Build and Grow.
And I now gladly take you through a few of these examples.
For harvesting, we have a very strong and innovative portfolio in our Mature Business, building the foundation for the future. And we will continue to optimize this for the hybrid and as well ICE powertrains. Top priority in that field is to secure the margin and to generate cash to fund the future, but also to leverage skills and existing invest- ments.
For the New Business on the right side in electrified powertrains, Dr. Jochen Schröder will show you the latest successes in a moment.
We delivered on our promise and I already now can conclude that we will increase our order intake target to 2 to 3 billion euros per year.
We will also intensively develop the other two key areas Exit/Divest and Build. Since 2018, we have intensively pushed ahead with a consolidation of plants in Europe with a focus on Germany. We are removing complexities in the organization and we are consistently phasing out expiring businesses.
At the very same time, we are further strengthening our capabilities in the power electronics field, but realizing our new 3in1 projects for serial production and together with our Industrial colleagues and Stefan, we have started a broad initiative on Hy- drogen.
All our resources we handle in a sustainable manner. We have now trained more than 1,000 of our long-standing experienced employees from the Mature Business for the New Businesses.
Next year, we will inaugurate our factory for electric motors in Hungary; this factory is being built as a lighthouse factory for sustainability. At the same time, we are modernizing our existing mature site in Bühl as an ultra-efficient factory for electric motors and we have our competency center for E-Mobility there under the management of Dr. Schröder.
How do we win? Or how to master or - better - how to lead this transition?
We see four core USPs at Schaeffler being key for that. We are and we will continue to be innovative with more than 2,000 patents filed per year. With our system under- standing, we discuss with the automotive manufacturers at eye level and can therefore develop and deliver innovative systems and components.
Quality is and remains a top priority in everything we do and we are in the single-digit PPM range with all car manufacturers and we receive numerous awards. And as Klaus said, our vertical integration and manufacturing excellence makes us very strong in implementation of things and products.
This slide illustrates the relevance of Mature Business as the foundation for the New Businesses.
We will continue to develop and to supply components and systems as said. We see significant content in all powertrain types and, as said, we will take advantage of our exceptional production know-how as this makes us strong in implementing products.
With that, I would like to hand over to Dr. Jochen Schröder.
Dr. Jochen Schröder
Thanks, Matthias, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, also from my side.
It is my pleasure to now share with you the progress we are making in the transformation towards E-Mobility. Two years ago, we clearly communicated our ambition to become an E-Motor maker for electrified powertrains. This is because a) the E-Motor is the heart of every electrified drivetrain and b) because the E-Motor perfectly fits to our DNA. Schaeffler is strong in the industrialization of innovative and technologically demanding mechanical products and we are able to realize a deep vertical integration in E-Motors.
And we deliver on our strategy. Our order intake on E-Motors is exceeding 1 billion euros. We use our own E-Motor in multiple system projects and we start to deliver E-Motors in mass production to our customers end of next year.
We are building our global footprint with E-Motor production lines in China, in the USA, in Europe, like e.g. in Hungary, as Matthias explained before, with a new E-Mobility production plant that is currently under construction, and also in Bühl in our headquarters E-Mobility where we will also produce E-Motors in the future.
In our E-Motor product portfolio, we are following a modular approach strongly enabled by our vertical integration to realize scale effects.
In last year's Capital Markets Day, I explained to you that with E-Motors we are able to deliver 2in1 systems: gearbox plus E-Motor or, in a hybrid module, E-Motors combined with torque converters or clutches for example.
However, market needs and our strategy goes beyond 2in1 to 3in1 systems, that means with power electronics, PEU and software integrated into the system.
Last year, I promised that we are ready to make this step and that we want to take it. Today, I can report: We did it. Since last year, we achieved an order intake of around
3 billion euros in 3in1 systems from multiple customers for pure electric vehicles with E-Axle and for hybrid vehicles with our Schaeffler DHT Multimode.
This is the first visible evidence that Schaeffler has managed to transform. We achieved know-how in power electronics. We are able to manage and to master electronics in the electric powertrain.
Our main model today is to specify the power electronic and to work with a partner. In software, we always have at least a share in all projects and we do the software functions relevant for the differentiation of the system in-house in Schaeffler.
And maybe also important to note: In one of the 3in1 projects, we do not only specify the power electronics, but we will use our first in-house design power electronics and will bring this into production.
The 3in1 systems of Schaeffler are not only me-too products. We differentiate with our innovative technology. On the right-hand side of this slide, you see an example of our 3in1 E-Axle. Here we do an 800 Volt system with silicon carbide inverter technology with 2-speed seamless power-shift capabilities and highly innovative E-Motors, setting a benchmark in power density. And we do not only do one E-Axle system, but we will produce a modular kit and we are able to serve a variety of power classes in a scalable design.
Besides light vehicles, electrification in heavy duty vehicles is also gaining momentum. We decided to enter this market segment as well because of high synergies in the E-Mobility products. One example for these synergies is, again, the E-Motor.
We can use the same production machinery as for light vehicles and the same base materials. In particular, our Wave Winding technology that we developed with Elmotec Statomat also offers advantages in the truck segment because of its very high efficiency and power density, making it very attractive for heavy duty application.
I am happy to report that we already achieved the first nomination with our Wave Winding E-Motor for heavy duty in the US truck market.
In the electrification of the truck segment, pure battery electric solutions will have limits, especially for long-haul use. Here, fuel cell technologies have advantages and we believe that we will see fuel cell trucks at relevant volumes towards the second half of this decade.
Therefore, we decided to enter the truck Hydrogen fuel cell business also, but not limited to trucks, also for light vehicles and our Industrial sectors, as explained before by Klaus. But certainly, trucks will be one of the leading applications for fuel cells.
The way how we approach fuel cells is similar to how we approach the E-Motors. The core of every fuel cell are bipolar plates forming a stack of several hundred plates in a fuel cell system. A bipolar plate is basically a stamped part, like the metal sheets in the E-Motor, the surface technologies, welding technologies and other technologies brought together.
In a nutshell, all technologies needed for bipolar plates are core technologies of Schaeffler and we are well prepared to go into this field with our industrialization competencies. Fuel cell systems also offer opportunities beyond bipolar plates and stacks. We can also use for example our thermal management modules from combustion engine and adopt it to fuel cells, our system know-how and capabilities and also various other components around the fuel cell.
Last but not least, we are also looking beyond the powertrain into new growth areas around chassis systems. In particular, new mobility concepts and autonomous driving require innovative products like steer-by-wire systems or our corner modules.
In particular with our steer-by-wire technology, we are making good progress with our joint-venture partner Schaeffler Paravan. Also with our Rear Wheel Steering sys- tem, we are close to entering the market together with our partner Bosch.
The steer-by-wire technology is not only limited to passenger cars, but it is technology relevant and interesting across various sectors and applications also in industry. We are working here on several projects and see good growth opportunities for the fu- ture.
With this, I want to hand back to Matthias. Thank you.
Thank you, Jochen. Ladies and gentlemen, how do we create value for our customers and for the Group?
With 19.6 billion euros, we see in the middle our order intake of the last 18 months and its structure according to ICE, HEV and xEV. With this order intake structure, we anticipate our assumed powertrain scenario.
First and foremost, we will fund our growth and the realization of this order intake from the Mature Business side and thus generate value. Therefore, we adjust the R&D quota, the Capex ratio and the overhead ratio accordingly. At the same time, we leverage skills, intensify the R&D and Capex spendings for the New Business and we commit ourselves to a higher order intake. Thus, for a while, the overall profitability will be a blended mix of both business segments.
Ladies and gentlemen, my team and I commit to a continuous outperformance of 2 to 5%, as we are convinced that we will continue to deliver superior products in the future vehicles.
And at the same time, we commit, no matter what, to achieve, 4 to 6% adjusted EBIT margin latest in 2023, while actively managing the transition by ensuring profitability in Mature Business and fostering strong growth in the New Business area.
Ladies and gentlemen, with that, let me conclude.
My team and I are up to conquer a leading position in New Business for electrified powertrain and advanced chassis applications.
Thank you very much. I am happy to answer your questions later.
Thank you, Matthias. Please allow me now to talk in the next 15 minutes about the Automotive Aftermarket.
The Automotive Aftermarket is very well positioned in both major channels, the OES channel as well as the Independent Aftermarket channel. Due to the nature of our demand structure, we are predominantly represented in the independent aftermar- ket because the sweet spot of our business is with cars older than four years, around ten years.
The heart of our business is in Europe and the Americas with a fast growth in Greater China and Asia/Pacific as well. As these markets are growing in future, this is one of the further growth potentials that we are going to look at in a moment.
The year 2020 proves that our business is quite resilient with regard to revenue, but also EBIT streams. Therefore, Automotive Aftermarket is a good contributor to the Schaeffler success.
The fundament of our business is the global car parc and its growth. As new cars sales at present are declining, the good news is that the sweet spot of the business is even growing faster than the overall car parc.
If we look into the main trends that are describing our markets, at a first glance, what we see is: Three of these trends are supporting the Independent Aftermarket busi- ness: the car parc as such, its growth, its ageing and specifically the growth in the region China.
New players are showing up, to name Fleet as one of them. With a closer look at Total Cost of Ownership and life-cycle management - in other industries, we would call it predictive maintenance - that will give us additional tailwind going forward.
The digitalization in terms of platform and e-commerce we see as a very good trend that supports our growth.
One trend that we see and that Matthias and Jochen Schröder have elaborated on, hybridization and E-Mobility, will not reach our market significantly in the next couple of years to come, which is why we see it neutral.
Many of the trends are accelerated due to the appearance of Covid-19. This is also true for a further pressure on the profit pool due to the consolidation of the market and increasing visibility and the integration of activities. But all in all, the trends are more supportive than creating additional friction.
Where do we play in the Automotive Aftermarket?
We are proud to say that we are market leader in two of the three areas, in Transmission as well as in Engine. On the Chassis side, we have to say: This is a growing market because regardless of the propulsion technology going forward, chassis applications will be needed in any type of mobility. So, that is the heart of our business.
When we come to the soul of our business, obviously, we are not just producing parts and shipping them from A to B. We have various growth drivers that we tackle and make the most out of it: the share of wallet in order to increase our business relation with the existing customer base across all the offerings that we have; the solutions and service offerings generating more turnover and value-add on the back of the existing portfolio; and the way to market next to the traditional channels in the Independent and OES sector, in new business models and e-commerce activities.
There are various drivers and fields of actions on the enablers' side, investing and benefiting from the digital competencies, as well as making the most out of our operational excellence.
All this is meant to increase customer experience and, with that, also customer satis- faction.
Please allow me to give you some examples that serve helping us in these different areas.
One of the growth drivers in the area of share of wallet - I mentioned it earlier - is the investment into wheel bearings, predominantly for passenger cars. This is not only a question of a product as such; this is a question of a future relevant portfolio with high-performance parts and also repair solutions.
The second bucket is mentioned here: advanced repair solutions and services. We are proud to say that we have already our first repair solution for hybrid vehicles. There is an example here in the area of front-end accessory drives. So we are preparing ourselves for the very moment there is a demand and need for repairs in the area of hybridization and E-Mobility.
When it comes to the way to market, we invested heavily into our ETC platform in China. Please allow me to give you more insight on that one in a minute.
With regard to digital competencies, our REPXPERT service offering is meanwhile available in more than 50 country versions and language translations that go along with it. It helps our customers on the workshop level, on the garage level to get the
information at the place of business under the hood of the car at the very moment that it is needed.
To the operational excellence, also with regard to the AKO, please allow me to give you a bit more insight with the next couple of slides.
This now brings me to the question: How do we win in our markets?
The first deep dive: ETC China. What does ETC stand for? You can translate ETC into engine, transmission and chassis, which easily explains our product offerings. But you can also translate ETC into electronic toll collect, which is the fast lane on congested motorways. That simply explains the status quo and the reachable situation that we are striving for.
In China, we find a very, very fragmented market with many different players and many different layers of distribution. ETC is offering a connection, a business-to-business trading platform, connecting all those players into one ecosystem, one language, one decision-making process and one delivery to the demand.
Why China? I already said it in the beginning: China is the fastest growing car parc that we see at present. China has, as a starting point, a very huge fragmentation, very far away from the distributor consolidation that we see in other markets. Our ETC system offers the cut-through technology in the "high-complexity product" niche.
If you look into the numbers that ETC is already offering: More than 100,000 stock- keeping units are available already on ETC while Schaeffler core business is less than 20,000. So, already today, there is an offer on that platform that is by far exceeding our own offerings. It enables our customers and is not disrupting their business in partnering up together with us to build and form the ecosystem going forward.
The other deep dive that I want to offer is related to the AKO. We reached the point to open it; that is what we disclosed already.
The AKO fulfils and supports all our activities. It addresses the logistical issues to increase delivery service level and customer satisfaction. It is future-ready to integrate end-to-end processes, connecting customers with production. It supports financial ambitions with regard to inventory, working capital and costs. And it also supports our story with regard to sustainability going forward.
In a short period from now, 60% of our worldwide inventory will be consolidated in that one place and it will help us to run the best-in-class or benchmark logistical solution in our industry.
With that regard to value creation, let me cut it short.
We from the Automotive Aftermarket commit to deliver to sales higher than global GDP growth rate on the top line and we commit to deliver a profitability in the area of 13 to 15 percentage points latest in the year 2023, perhaps a year earlier already.
This brings me to my summary and conclusion.
My contribution to the Schaeffler value creation is to maintain a high margin level business and expand our share of wallet and expand our reach.
With that, I hand over to you, Stefan. Thank you very much.
Dr. Stefan Spindler
Michael, thanks a lot. Hello to everybody!
It is a pleasure to inform you now about where we stand and where we will go with the Industrial business.
So let us start with where we stand. A key element of our current portfolio is, as you all know, a strong component business. And this arises from the key competencies which Klaus Rosenfeld has also described: a superb manufacturing know-how combined with R&D. And we are offering both. We are offering high-performance components and we are also offering very cost-attractive components, combining the product know-how with the global setup we have, also utilizing best-cost countries.
As Michael has said, components, bearings, they are a future-relevant portfolio. Wherever you have motion, both rotative and linear, you will need bearings and linear technology products. It doesn't matter if machinery is driven mechanically, hydraulically or in any other way.
So, besides the component know-how, we do have a high level of expertise in terms of designing these components into our customers' machines and we know how they operate. This leads more and more to the fact that customers ask us to offer modules and systems, e.g. also mechatronical systems and mechanical systems, but also service solutions because improving the efficiency of operations at our customers is crit- ical.
When you look at the worldwide setup on the left-hand side of this page, you see Greater China with 20% of the business, Asia/Pacific with 16% of the business; these are the 2019 numbers. We do 36% of our sales in Asia and the trend is growing, as you probably have seen from the Q3 numbers in 2020.
Looking one level deeper. You know, we have the eight sector clusters plus distribu- tion, distribution representing the indirect channel. The eight sector clusters, that's the business which we do with the OEM customers and also with end customers to a certain degree.
If you structure these eight sector clusters into areas, you see that we are significantly contributing to the energy and infrastructure operations, mainly with our Wind busi- ness, but also with our Raw Materials business, including Mining, Metals, Oil and Gas.
Transportation - that is transportation for people, but also for freight - contributing to the megatrend of growing population and growing transport needs, highlighting our Aerospace and our Rail business. We all know that aerospace is currently affected by Covid. But if we look into the medium to long term, that is certainly going to be a growing business again.
Mobile Machines & Equipment, Offroad being a part of that, with the focus areas of Agriculture and Construction, Two-Wheelers, which is not only motorcycles, but all kinds of special equipment, and Power Transmission, to a high degree also contributing to this machinery, E-Motors, hydraulics equipment, pneumatics. That is a good
20% of our business and also significantly contributing to the growing population re- quirements, to the infrastructure construction requirements and to the necessity of agriculture and food for the population.
Industrial Automation. We all know that there is a classical area of this business: machine tools, textile machines, printing machines. But there are also areas which do show significant growth, like Robotics and Medical. So it is a complex area. Some of it is affected by the current crisis, but some of that definitely also has some very attractive growth potential.
If we look now at the market, the Industrial business was affected in 2019, in late 2019 already by a weakening market. Then, of course, in 2020 Corona came and you all know the impact scenarios. We believe that the post-Covid baseline will show a market decline in the industrial production of about 8%. When you translate that into the Industrial business, you know that in addition to market effects, there are de- stocking effects, there is cost-cutting in the service business of our customers.
So, we believe that we will see a decline of 9 to 10% of sales in the Industrial business in 2020. But this will pick up in 2021 again. We also see that if we look into the next five-year period, we will see a steady growth, as you see it here by the green line.
How is Covid and the current market situation reflected in the outlook for the sector clusters?
We are breaking this down here on this chart. You see the pre-Covid scenario and you see the post-Covid scenario. Of course, there is a certain impact. It is not like Covid doesn't have any impact. But on the other hand, the good news is that if we look at e.g. Wind - and that's a strong part of our business in absolute numbers, but also in terms of relative growth -, that is basically not affected. It is growing significantly also this year and it will continue to grow. I am going to show also an example on that.
Raw Materials is affected. But, then, if you look at Aerospace and also Rail, we do see growth despite the current market environment. Also at Offroad, Two-Wheelers, Power Transmission, everything around mobile machinery, we see positive signs of growth. The two pluses are, by the way, an area of 3 to 4% and the single plus is an area of 1 to 3% of growth.
Industrial automation: If you take everything on average, it is a rather flat business. But if you look at the individual sectors which are accelerated by certain trends, like Robotics and Medical, then we do see strong growth. We will show you, based on a few examples, how we want to take advantage of that.
Having talked about the regional business and the sector business, we, of course, also talk about sustainability. Besides the broad sector coverage which we have with our products, we definitely put a strong focus on this topic, on sustainability.
You know that Wind plays a strong role. If you translate that into what Schaeffler means for the Wind industry: Every second to third Wind turbine is supplied with Schaeffler products. So if we didn't have Schaeffler, the Wind business and the worldwide renewable energy setup would look quite different.
If you look into green transportation, Railway will continue to play a major role in transportation of people and freight. This is certainly to one degree a volume busi- ness; it is also a service business. But it also is a business with high requirements, especially when you go into high-speed trains. So, it is technically challenging and it is a growing business, plus it has service relevance.
Low friction is something which is technically basically part of our backbone and it is more and more required if you look at energy-saving driveline technologies.
Then, if we come to the service solutions, of course, our customers also must make sure that their operations are sustainable, for two reasons: They must operate cost- efficiently and they also don't want to have breakdowns for reasons of sustainability
requirements. So, service solutions and subscription-based service models are playing a more and more important role also for us.
Coming to the question where we play.
With this chart, I basically want to summarize the eight sector clusters and the products and the applications in which we create value.
What you see here at the bottom part of the picture are six examples. I would like to explain these examples to you, so that you get an impression of how we push growth in our core business - those are the examples 1, 2 and 3 - and how we also drive innovation. Klaus Rosenfeld has mentioned it: There is a lot of crossover of technologies from the Group technologies and from the Automotive Technologies, which also helps us to drive innovation in the Industrial business.
Let me come to the examples and also let me explain to you how these examples match with megatrends which we do see in the Industrial environment.
On the Wind side, you all know that climate change is a key issue. Renewable energy is a key issue. If you look at the recent announcements, China wants to be climate- neutral or CO₂-neutral by 2060. The US wants to double the capacity of renewable energy within just a few years. If you look at the forecasts which we have here - and that doesn't even include the recent announcement of China and America -, you see here: The forecast is, within 20 years the Wind power generation will develop by the factor 5.
It is definitely a growing business and it is also a technically demanding business. Turbines are installed offshore. The components need to run reliably for over 20 years. We are talking high power, we are talking big sizes of machinery, bearings of more than three meters of diameter. So, durability, reliability is key here. And that means R&D competence of Schaeffler is required. We are convinced that continuing the growth strategy and continuing the investments in these areas, also based on the strong footprint which we have with our international factories, will be a growth driver for our Industrial business.
Coming to the second example, Railway bearings. It has a certain similarity with Wind, of course. The trend is a different one; the trend is the rising population and the rising demand for infrastructure and transport.
Technically, we also see here pretty harsh and stringent requirements in terms of the operation profile, in terms of the safety criticality. So, high-performance engineering is needed. We do have a lot of experience in the railways industry and we have seen very nice recent successes.
The interesting topic about railways is that it has a high service relevance, which we see here by the example: You sell one new bearing and this leads to eight bearings in service because some of them are reconditioned and some of them are replaced by spare bearings over the lifetime of the train. So, a strong long-term market outlook, a strong position of Schaeffler technically and a good megatrend for us, also a promising growth area for us as the second example, I would say, with the more conventional core products which we have.
Let me show you the third example here; that is from the Agricultural technologies. Of course, supplying food to a growing population is another megatrend. In order to supply food, you need to seed grains and in order to process the seeding in the most efficient way, you need mobile machinery and you need also sensors and mechatron- ics to make sure that you don't waste any seeds during the seeding process.
The combination of offering products - which, of course, are also under cost pressure; but for that, we have ramped up our factories in India and in Vietnam specifically for those products - and combining these cost-effective products with high-technology sensors and mechatronics solutions gives us a good position in this very attractive growth area.
Now coming to the fourth example; that goes to Robotics. Robotics is a business which has been known for a long time, but that is mostly the classical industrial robots market for automated assembly, automated manufacturing.
What we see is that there is a growing Cobot, a collaborative robot market because, of course, manual work in some areas is seen more and more critical for various rea- sons: for cost reasons, for safety reasons. Collaboration with robots will play a more and more important role.
You see a pretty attractive market development here. That is the Cobot sales in thousand units, which is basically growing by the factor of 10, if you take the number between 2017 and 2025.
Actually, the strategy is that we sell components into this business. We sell also systems into this business. We are taking advantage of the gear technologies which we have in the Group and which our Automotive colleagues have developed. We are also taking advantage of the electrical drive technologies which we have in the Group. The target is to supply systems into this application.
The other side of the strategy is that we are also utilizing these Cobots more and more in our own factories, starting with pick-and-place tasks and also going into sensitive
assembly jobs. If you think a little bit further, you can even look into service robots, which is not a market now, but which can be a market in the future.
The fifth example is a product that is a service product which we have announced and launched in the middle of this year. It is a condition monitoring system, but it is more than the classical condition monitoring. It is a service solution.
Please look at the right-hand side of this slide. The whole cake shows all the machinery which is in production, in operation. Then you see: 94% of these machines are not monitored or they are manually monitored. It is not like every machine is already automatically monitored with sophisticated monitoring equipment. A lot of it is just monitored with handheld units.
The target is, for safety and for reliability reasons and also for cost reasons, to replace this manual monitoring by automatic monitoring. That requires an easy-to-install sys- tem. It requires a system without a high degree of complexity to be interlinked with the IT systems of customers. So, easy to install, cost-effective.
We have launched this system. We have a very good reception from the market and that is our entry into the subscription-based part of the service business. We are looking forward to growing that in the coming years together with our end customers.
My last example is also here the contribution to the Hydrogen strategy which is an overall Schaeffler Group strategy. Matthias and Jochen have talked about the fuel cells side of this business. The fuel cell is also relevant for Industrial markets.
In addition to the fuel cell, there is electrolysis, as Klaus has said. Basically, the nice aspect is that the technologies and the products which we are developing here are based on the same core competencies: metal forming, coating, material science, production technologies.
If you look at the market outlook, we are today at something like less than 1 gigawatt of installed electrolysis power. If you look into 2040 - that's the number on the right- hand side, the green pillar is supposed to be 2040 - it is a factor of 1,000 of installed electrolysis power within 20 years. That means we are going from, let's say, a classical workshop style of manufacturing into an industrialized high-performance series type of manufacturing.
So, it is an area which is ideally suited to what we can do. If we take our competencies from all Divisions and from our corporate technology development, we believe that we can play a very attractive role and make a very interesting step into this business.
This concludes the examples. Please, ladies and gentlemen, take it as examples. It is definitely not all that we are doing, but these were six typical examples to show you what we are doing, both on the component side, but also on the systems and service side and what we have in the pipeline also technologically. Of course, there are many more examples, but those which I have shown are pretty relevant of what we are doing in general.
So let me please conclude and talk about how we create value for our customers and for the Group.
I have summarized that here in these four categories. Strengthen technology leadership for bearings and new technologies: I have explained that based on the six examples you have seen. That is a core element of the approach.
Another core element is reinforcing our customer excellence. If you look into the recent publications, you see we have launched the new digital customer platform "me- dias", which is a pretty classical name for our product catalogue. We are developing on the basis of this product catalogue now a fully fledged e-commerce platform so that we make sure that, due to the diversity and the complexity of our customers, everybody has a fast access to Schaeffler, everybody gets the right explanations about our products and everybody knows where and how the customer can buy the products and how they can be ordered automatically. That is a key enabler to drive also the growth and the business.
FIT, our operational excellence program: We have talked about that in the previous sessions already. We have launched it. We are continuously executing it. It is an operational performance program and will pay a contribution to the growth and the profitability story.
Then there is something which I have not explained in detail during this session, but we have done it previously and we have also, of course, informed about it in other
sessions and we have announced it publicly; that is the consolidation of the footprint and the reduction of the overhead. That is also a key element if we look at the Industrial business over the next five years. We have started several years ago and we did some first steps. We are now increasing these activities because creating value is both: it is growing, it is innovation and it is also, of course, cost optimization.
This then leads to the summary that we want to grow above the industrial production growth if we look at the average of 2021 to 2025.
We stand behind our profitability target of 12 to 14%. We have said 11 to 13% previ- ously. We have seen a setback now due to the market and the Corona crisis. But in light of what we are doing in terms of growth initiatives, but also in terms of cost cutting due to our announced programs, we see 12 to 14% as the margin range which we will have latest in 2023.
That brings me to the summary and the conclusion.
The market decline of 8% and the Covid pandemic, that's our environment. The market is expected to recover and grow by 3% per annum; that is the current forecast. You saw that by the green curve.
We want to grow above the industrial production if we look at the mid-term horizon 2021 to 2025. We see Hydrogen as an opportunity beyond 2025.
We are creating value by pushing our core business and by driving innovation with systems and services.
We will reach an EBIT margin of 12 to 14% latest by 2023 and we build on the strengths which we have created over the last couple of years.
Of course, M&A and partnering for dedicated areas provide further opportunities.
So, all in all, we see very attractive growth fields and we will further enhance our profitability.
This concludes the Industrial part. Then I would like to hand over to Klaus Patzak.
Thank you, Stefan. Hello from my side!
Schaeffler AG published this content on 25 November 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 30 November 2020 08:54:08 UTC