Projected Income Statement: Shell plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 75,386 52,555 44,837 43,541 38,809 43,059 45,795 48,056
Change - -30.29% -14.69% -2.89% -10.87% 10.95% 6.35% 4.94%
Announcement Date 2/4/21 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 16,585 19,000 22,600 22,993 19,601 19,980 20,224 20,391
Change - 14.56% 18.95% 1.74% -14.75% 1.93% 1.22% 0.82%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 20,828 40,345 45,814 36,460 39,530 25,516 24,349 26,645
Change - 93.71% 13.56% -20.42% 8.42% -35.45% -4.57% 9.43%
Announcement Date 2/4/21 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Shell plc

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.91% 21.03% 22.1% 21.65% 23.14% 21.18% 20.05% 19.66%
EBIT Margin (%) 5.96% 12.52% 16.42% 11.76% 15.16% 12.27% 11.24% 11.32%
EBT Margin (%) -14.94% 11.41% 17% 10.31% 10.52% 10.94% 10.35% 9.92%
Net margin (%) -12.01% 7.69% 11.1% 6.11% 5.66% 6.67% 6.49% 6.6%
FCF margin (%) 11.54% 15.43% 12.01% 11.52% 13.9% 9.53% 8.98% 9.28%
FCF / Net Income (%) -96.07% 200.71% 108.28% 188.33% 245.63% 143% 138.43% 140.64%

Profitability

        
ROA 1.24% 4.92% 9.41% 6.7% 5.97% 4.65% 4.76% 5.81%
ROE 2.84% 11.79% 23.35% 15% 13% 10.88% 10.45% 11.66%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.8x 0.96x 0.53x 0.64x 0.59x 0.76x 0.84x 0.85x
Debt / Free cash flow 3.62x 1.3x 0.98x 1.19x 0.98x 1.69x 1.88x 1.8x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 9.19% 7.27% 5.93% 7.26% 6.89% 7.47% 7.46% 7.1%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 61.62% 34.54% 26.81% 33.55% 29.79% 35.25% 37.21% 36.12%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 79.63% 47.09% 49.33% 63.06% 49.59% 78.3% 83.06% 76.53%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 4.375 5.778 9.232 7.97 8.593 7.309 7.528 8.479
Change - 32.06% 59.79% -13.67% 7.82% -14.94% 3% 12.63%
Dividend per Share 1 0.653 0.8935 0.99 1.294 1.39 1.441 1.502 1.575
Change - 36.83% 10.8% 30.66% 7.46% 3.64% 4.27% 4.87%
Book Value Per Share 1 19.92 22.38 27.2 28.6 29.16 29.95 31.3 33.28
Change - 12.33% 21.53% 5.16% 1.95% 2.72% 4.51% 6.32%
EPS 1 -2.78 2.57 5.71 2.85 2.53 3.059 3.363 3.88
Change - 192.45% 122.18% -50.09% -11.23% 20.92% 9.94% 15.36%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 7,772,923 7,640,301 7,003,503 6,524,109 6,115,031 5,765,248 5,765,248 5,765,248
Announcement Date 2/4/21 2/3/22 2/2/23 2/1/24 1/30/25 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 12.1x 11x
PBR 1.24x 1.18x
EV / Sales 0.96x 0.96x
Yield 3.89% 4.06%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
37.01USD
Average target price
41.80USD
Spread / Average Target
+12.94%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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