Equity Research - 13 April 2021 09:25 CET
SinterCast
Series production showing signs of recovery
- Q1'21 report due on Wednesday 21 April
- EBIT up 1.5% for '21e, impact from series production
- Trading at ~29x '21e EV/EBIT, 4-7% div. yield '21-'23e
Positive Q1'21 outlook driven by March production volumes
We expect Q1 sales of ~SEK 25m (0% y-o-y), of which ~SEK 23m should come from series production (-5%y-o-y) and SEK 1.2m (vs. SEK 0.4m in Q1'20) from equipment sales and note that Q1 is a historically weak quarter for this segment. We estimate EBIT of SEK 7.5m, corresponding to a 30% EBIT margin (vs. 32% Q1'20). However, following a company announcement of Q1 production volumes, we revise our estimate for Q1'21 series production to 2.90m from 2.85m annualised engine equivalents (0% y-o-y, +12% q-o-q). After lower volumes in January and February (2.7m and 2.5m, respectively), March series production recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels at 3.5m annualised engine equivalents. Finally, we estimate sampling cup deliveries of 40,780 (-10%y-o-y,-5%q-o-q) due to seasonal foundry shutdowns and harsher winter conditions compared to Q1'20.
'21e series production recovery, but lower equipment sales
We raise our sales estimates by c. 1% for '21 and EBIT estimates by 1.5% due to slight revisions in series production. We expect growth in '21e to be driven by the recovery of series production sales, which we estimate will increase by c. 28% y-o-y. However, '20 saw record equipment sales due to major installations in the First Automobile Works (FAW) and Scania foundries. Based on this, we expect growth from series production to be offset by a 25% y-o-y decrease in equipment sales. In addition, equipment sales in '21 will likely be concentrated in H2, as the Impro Industries and Hyundai orders are both scheduled for H2. All in all, we leave our estimates for '22-'23e unchanged.
Trading at ~29x EV/EBIT '21e, 4-7% div. yield '21-'23e
On our estimates, SinterCast is trading at ~29x EV/EBIT '21e, while offering a 4-7% dividend yield for '21-'23e. As the company has a history of paying out 100% of net profit as dividends, we derive our fair value range of SEK 130-241(125-225) per share by discounting future dividends, assuming an 8-12% cost of equity.
Analyst(s): ofelia.aspemyr@abgsc.se, +46 8 566 286 31
Adrian.Gilani@abgsc.se, | |||||
SEKm | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Sales | 117 | 95 | 114 | 148 | 168 |
EBITDA | 43 | 25 | 42 | 61 | 75 |
EBITDA margin (%) | 37.2 | 26.6 | 36.4 | 41.4 | 44.5 |
EBIT adj | 45 | 21 | 38 | 57 | 70 |
EBIT adj margin (%) | 38.6 | 22.1 | 32.9 | 38.7 | 42.1 |
Pretax profit | 40 | 22 | 38 | 57 | 70 |
EPS rep | 6.80 | 3.12 | 5.85 | 9.38 | 11.24 |
EPS adj | 7.49 | 3.04 | 5.85 | 9.38 | 11.24 |
Sales growth (%) | 32.8 | -18.1 | 19.6 | 29.8 | 13.1 |
EPS growth (%) | 47.4 | -54.0 | 87.4 | 60.2 | 19.8 |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Reason: Preview of results
Company sponsored research
Not rated
Estimate changes (%) | |||
2021e | 2022e | 2023e | |
Sales | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBIT (rep) | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EPS (rep) | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier | ||
Share price (SEK) | 12/04/2021 | 155.4 |
Fair value range (per share) | 130-241 | |
Capital Goods, Sweden | ||
SINT.ST/SINT SS | ||
MCap (SEKm) | 1,102 | |
MCap (EURm) | 108 | |
Net debt (EURm) | -3 | |
No. of shares (m) | 7.1 | |
Free float (%) | 88 | |
Av. daily volume (k) | 20 |
Next event | Q1 report: 21 Apr | |||||||||||||
Performance | ||||||||||||||
220 | ||||||||||||||
200 | ||||||||||||||
180 | ||||||||||||||
160 | ||||||||||||||
140 | ||||||||||||||
120 | ||||||||||||||
100 | ||||||||||||||
80 | ||||||||||||||
60 | Aug 18 | Dec 18 Feb 19 | Aug 19 | Dec 19 | Jun 20 Aug 20 | Dec 20 | ||||||||
Apr 18 | Jun 18 | Oct 18 | Apr 19 | Jun 19 | Oct 19 | Feb 20 Apr 20 | Oct 20 | Feb 21 Apr 21 | ||||||
SinterCast | OMX STH PI |
1m | 3m | 12m | |
Absolute (%) | 12.8 | 17.4 | 21.6 |
Source: FactSet | |||
2021e | 2022e | 2023e | |
P/E (x) | 26.6 | 16.6 | 13.8 |
P/E adj (x) | 26.6 | 16.6 | 13.8 |
P/BVPS (x) | 9.04 | 7.50 | 6.88 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 25.8 | 17.3 | 14.3 |
EV/EBIT adj (x) | 28.5 | 18.6 | 15.1 |
EV/sales (x) | 9.37 | 7.18 | 6.36 |
ROE adj (%) | 36.0 | 49.5 | 51.9 |
Dividend yield (%) | 3.8 | 6.0 | 7.2 |
FCF yield (%) | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.9 |
Lease adj. FCF yld (%) | 3.0 | 4.3 | 5.8 |
Net IB debt/EBITDA | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.5 |
Lease adj. ND/EBITDA | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to
constitute an acceptableDocumentminordownloadednon-monetarybybenefitLinn(iFREDRIKSSON.e. not investment research)(SinterCast)as defined in MiFID II.
SinterCast
Company description
SinterCast is a leading supplier of online process control technology and know-how for the reliable high-volume production of Compacted Graphite Iron (CGI). The material is stronger than traditional iron, which enables downsizing, increased thermal and mechanical loading, and increased engine performance. The technology is primarily used in diesel engines for larger passenger vehicles such as SUVs and pick-ups as well as commercial vehicles and offroad equipment.
Risks
Automotive demand, and more specifically demand for larger passenger vehicles such as SUVs and pick-up trucks with diesel engines. Regulation relating to fossil fuels and diesel in particular poses risks to the business model.
Annual sales and adj. EBIT margin | Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT margin |
180 | 45.0 | 35 | |||||||
160 | 40.0 | 30 | |||||||
140 | 35.0 | ||||||||
25 | |||||||||
120 | 30.0 | ||||||||
100 | 25.0 | 20 | |||||||
80 | 20.0 | 15 | |||||||
60 | 15.0 | 10 | |||||||
40 | 10.0 | ||||||||
5 | |||||||||
20 | 5.0 | ||||||||
0 | 0.0 | 0 | |||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | |
Sales (LHS) | Adj EBIT margin % (RHS) |
40.0 | |||||||
35.0 | |||||||
30.0 | |||||||
25.0 | |||||||
20.0 | |||||||
15.0 | |||||||
10.0 | |||||||
5.0 | |||||||
Q1'20 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | Q4'20 | Q1'21e | Q2'21e | 0.0 | |
Q3'21e | Q4'21e | ||||||
Sales (LHS) | Adj EBIT margin % (RHS) |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data | Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data |
EPS estimate changes, 2021e, SEK
9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | ||||||||||||||
Apr | - | May | - | Jun | - | Jul | - | Aug | - | Sep | - | Oct | - | Nov | - | Dec | - | Jan | - | Feb | - | Mar | - | ||
ABGSC | FactSet Consensus Mean | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet
EPS estimate changes, 2022e, SEK
10.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
8.8 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | |||||||||||
Apr | - | May | - | Jun | - | Jul | - | Aug | - | Sep | - | Oct | - | Nov | - | Dec | - | Jan | - | Feb | - | Mar | - |
ABGSC | FactSet Consensus Mean |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet
Lease adj. net debt and ND/EBITDA | 12month forward-looking P/E | ||||||||||||||
0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | |||||||||||||
-10 | -0.5 | 26.0 | |||||||||||||
-1.0 | 24.0 | ||||||||||||||
-20 | -1.5 | 22.0 | |||||||||||||
-30 | -2.0 | 20.0 | |||||||||||||
-2.5 | 18.0 | ||||||||||||||
-40 | -3.0 | 16.0 | |||||||||||||
-50 | -3.5 | 14.0 | |||||||||||||
-4.0 | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||
-60 | -4.5 | ||||||||||||||
10.0 | |||||||||||||||
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | ||||||
Apr-16 | Apr-17 | Apr-18 | Apr-19 | Apr-20 | Apr-21 | ||||||||||
Net IB debt excl. leasing (LHS) | Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (RHS) | P/E f12m | 5y avg | ||||||
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data | |||||||||
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data |
13 April 2021 | ABG Sundal Collier | 2 |
Document downloaded by Linn FREDRIKSSON (SinterCast)
SinterCast
Estimate changes, 2021e-2023e
Estimate changes | Old | New | SEKm | % | ||||||||
SEKm | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Revenue | 113.4 | 148.1 | 167.6 | 114.1 | 148.1 | 167.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Gross profit | 85.1 | 112.6 | 127.4 | 85.6 | 112.6 | 127.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Opex | -48.1 | -55.3 | -56.9 | -48.1 | -55.3 | -56.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
EBIT | 37.0 | 57.3 | 70.5 | 37.5 | 57.3 | 70.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% |
PTP | 37.0 | 57.3 | 70.5 | 37.5 | 57.3 | 70.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Net profit | 40.9 | 66.5 | 79.7 | 41.5 | 66.5 | 79.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Growth and margins | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Revenue grow th | 19% | 31% | 13% | 20% | 30% | 13% | 1% | -1% | 0% | |||
EBIT grow th | 71% | 55% | 23% | 73% | 53% | 23% | 3% | -2% | 0% | |||
Gross margin | 75% | 76% | 76% | 75% | 76% | 76% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |||
EBIT margin | 33% | 39% | 42% | 33% | 39% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |||
Sales split | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Equipment | 12.4 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Series Production | 98.0 | 130.3 | 149.1 | 98.7 | 130.3 | 149.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Engineering Service | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Total revenue | 113.4 | 148.1 | 167.6 | 114.1 | 148.1 | 167.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Other metrics | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Sampling cups | 164,410 | 189,960 | 204,500 | 167,410 | 189,960 | 204,500 | 3,000 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 0% | 0% |
Annualised engine eq. (mn) | 3.16 | 4.30 | 5.00 | 3.18 | 4.30 | 5.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates
Valuation overview
Owing to the company's history of paying out 100% of EPS as dividends, we derive our fair value range using a two-stage dividend discount model. Assuming a 6% EPS CAGR for '24e-'33e, payout ratio of 100%, terminal growth of 2.5% and a cost of equity of 8-12%, we arrive at a fair value range of SEK 130-241 per share.
ABGSCe fair value range
Cost of equity | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
NPV (Stage 1) | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 |
NPV (Stage 2) | 81 | 75 | 69 | 64 | 60 |
NPV (Terminal) | 138 | 104 | 80 | 62 | 50 |
Value per share | 241 | 200 | 170 | 148 | 130 |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates
Historical P/E and dividend yields
80 | 68 | 8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | 7% | 7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | 6% | 6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | 5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
44 | 5% | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 4% | 4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 25 | 27 | 3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3% | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 18 | 3% | 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 14 | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 2% | 2% | 1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | 0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | ||||||||||||||||||||
P/E | Dividend yield | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates, company data
13 April 2021 | ABG Sundal Collier | 3 |
Document downloaded by Linn FREDRIKSSON (SinterCast) |
SinterCast
Detailed quarterly figures, Q1'19-Q4'21e
Quarterly overview | Q1'19 | Q2'19 | Q3'19 | Q4'19 | Q1'20 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | Q4'20 | Q1'21e | Q2'21e | Q3'21e | Q4'21e |
Revenue | 22.9 | 33.5 | 30.8 | 29.3 | 24.6 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 32.9 | 24.6 | 29.1 | 30.3 | 30.2 |
Gross profit | 18.4 | 25.4 | 24.6 | 20.6 | 17.6 | 12.9 | 14.6 | 23.3 | 18.5 | 21.8 | 22.7 | 22.6 |
SG&A | -7.8 | -9.1 | -8.4 | -10.9 | -8.9 | -7.3 | -7.5 | -9.8 | -7.8 | -8.4 | -8.4 | -10.7 |
R&D | -2.2 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -4.1 | -3.3 | -2.3 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
Other opex | 0.5 | -0.7 | 1.3 | -1.8 | 2.5 | -2.5 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
EBIT | 8.9 | 12.9 | 14.5 | 3.8 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 8.7 |
Net financials | -0.6 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -1.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PTP | 8.3 | 13.2 | 14.2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 8.7 |
Taxes | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Net profit | 8.3 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 9.8 |
Growth and margins | Q1'19 | Q2'19 | Q3'19 | Q4'19 | Q1'20 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | Q4'20 | Q1'21e | Q2'21e | Q3'21e | Q4'21e |
Revenue grow th | 38% | 25% | 56% | 19% | 7% | -44% | -38% | 12% | 0% | 56% | 58% | -8% |
EBIT grow th | 82% | 17% | 142% | -49% | -11% | -94% | -75% | 145% | -6% | 1176% | 208% | -6% |
Gross margin | 80% | 76% | 80% | 70% | 72% | 69% | 76% | 71% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
EBIT margin | 39% | 39% | 47% | 13% | 32% | 4% | 19% | 28% | 30% | 35% | 37% | 29% |
Sales split | Q1'19 | Q2'19 | Q3'19 | Q4'19 | Q1'20 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | Q4'20 | Q1'21e | Q2'21e | Q3'21e | Q4'21e |
Equipment | 0.5 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
Series Production | 22.2 | 26.7 | 28.2 | 25.2 | 23.8 | 12.5 | 18.8 | 21.9 | 22.7 | 25.2 | 25.9 | 25.0 |
Engineering Service | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
Total revenue | 22.9 | 33.5 | 30.8 | 29.3 | 24.7 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 32.8 | 24.6 | 29.1 | 30.3 | 30.2 |
Other metrics | Q1'19 | Q2'19 | Q3'19 | Q4'19 | Q1'20 | Q2'20 | Q3'20 | Q4'20 Q1'21e Q2'21e Q3'21e Q4'21e | ||||
Sampling cups | 36,800 | 49,400 | 55,700 | 47,900 | 45,100 | 19,800 | 32,900 | 42,800 | 40,780 | 41,065 | 41,065 | 44,500 |
y-o-y | 13% | -28% | 30% | -11% | 23% | -60% | -41% | -11% | -10% | 107% | 25% | 4% |
Annualised engine eq. (mn) | 3.10 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 1.60 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
y-o-y | 24% | 26% | 52% | 19% | -6% | -53% | -20% | -16% | 0% | 106% | 21% | 19% |
Working capital / sales R12m | 24% | 29% | 25% | 22% | 21% | 18% | 22% | 25% | ||||
Net debt/cash | -36 | -25 | -41 | -30 | -39 | -45 | -42 | -22 | ||||
ND/EBITDA | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -2.1 | -0.9 | ||||
Equity ratio | 86% | 88% | 90% | 88% | 86% | 85% | 86% | 85% | ||||
FCF conversion (lease adj.) | 59% | 65% | 68% | 74% | 81% | 110% | 80% | 106% | ||||
ROCE | 33% | 37% | 42% | 38% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 19% |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates, company data
13 April 2021 | ABG Sundal Collier | 4 |
Document downloaded by Linn FREDRIKSSON (SinterCast) |
SinterCast
Detailed annual figures, '12-'23e
Annual overview | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Revenue | 45.9 | 51.9 | 54.5 | 72.4 | 75.4 | 65.6 | 87.7 | 116.5 | 95.4 | 114.1 | 148.1 | 167.6 |
Gross profit | 32.2 | 37.3 | 40.8 | 55.4 | 58.8 | 50.6 | 68.9 | 89.0 | 68.4 | 85.6 | 112.6 | 127.4 |
SG&A | -26.2 | -24.6 | -24.7 | -26.4 | -25.0 | -25.0 | -28.8 | -36.2 | -33.5 | -35.3 | -38.9 | -40.5 |
R&D | -5.5 | -5.8 | -6.5 | -7.6 | -7.9 | -7.3 | -10.3 | -12.0 | -11.6 | -12.0 | -15.4 | -15.4 |
Other opex | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -1.1 | 0.5 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
EBIT | 1.0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 20.3 | 26.4 | 17.7 | 29.4 | 40.1 | 21.7 | 37.5 | 57.3 | 70.5 |
Net financials | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PTP | 2.0 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 24.9 | 25.8 | 17.7 | 29.4 | 39.9 | 22.3 | 37.5 | 57.3 | 70.5 |
Taxes | -5.7 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 8.3 | -0.1 | 4.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
Net profit | -3.7 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 25.7 | 26.8 | 18.6 | 32.7 | 48.2 | 22.2 | 41.5 | 66.5 | 79.7 |
EPS | -0.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 11.2 |
DPS | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 11.2 |
Growth and margins | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Revenue grow th | -6% | 13% | 5% | 33% | 4% | -13% | 34% | 33% | -18% | 20% | 30% | 13% |
EBIT grow th | -91% | 630% | 40% | 99% | 30% | -33% | 66% | 36% | -46% | 73% | 53% | 23% |
Gross margin | 70% | 72% | 75% | 77% | 78% | 77% | 79% | 76% | 72% | 75% | 76% | 76% |
EBIT margin | 2% | 14% | 19% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 34% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 39% | 42% |
Sales split | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Equipment | 9.0 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 11.9 | 16.6 | 12.4 | 14.4 | 15.0 |
Series Production | 35.8 | 44.1 | 47.8 | 63.6 | 66.4 | 60.7 | 81.3 | 102.3 | 77.0 | 98.7 | 130.3 | 149.1 |
Engineering Service | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
Total revenue | 45.8 | 55.7 | 54.5 | 72.4 | 75.3 | 65.6 | 87.7 | 116.5 | 95.4 | 114.1 | 148.1 | 167.6 |
Other metrics | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
Sampling cups | 102,400 | 118,500 | 133,000 | 153,000 | 168,800 | 144,600 | 197,900 | 189,800 | 140,600 | 167,410 | 189,960 | 204,500 |
y-o-y | -26% | 16% | 12% | 15% | 10% | -14% | 37% | -4% | -26% | 19% | 13% | 8% |
Annualised engine eq. (mn) | 1.35 | 1.50 | 1.76 | 2.08 | 2.13 | 2.10 | 2.50 | 3.28 | 2.48 | 3.18 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
y-o-y | -4% | 11% | 18% | 18% | 2% | -1% | 19% | 31% | -24% | 28% | 35% | 16% |
Working capital / sales | 24% | 9% | 18% | 13% | 16% | 21% | 24% | 22% | 25% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
Net debt/cash | -35 | -48 | -45 | -48 | -45 | -30 | -33 | -30 | -22 | -27 | -33 | -30 |
ND/EBITDA | -17.7 | -5.9 | -4.1 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
Equity ratio | 94% | 89% | 91% | 88% | 89% | 91% | 90% | 88% | 85% | 85% | 84% | 84% |
FCF conversion (lease adj.) | 8% | 170% | 44% | 73% | 82% | 71% | 68% | 74% | 107% | 80% | 71% | 80% |
ROCE | 1% | 9% | 12% | 22% | 28% | 19% | 32% | 38% | 19% | 31% | 41% | 45% |
Payout ratio | -189% | 104% | 126% | 97% | 106% | 105% | 108% | 51% | 128% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates, company data
13 April 2021 | ABG Sundal Collier | 5 |
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