* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EUR=
poll data
* Reuters poll graphic on the U.S. dollar outlook: https://tmsnrt.rs/2JHMp0I
* Reuters FX poll graphic: http://tmsnrt.rs/2k8GCSM
BENGALURU, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The dollar's weakening is
likely to last at least another six months as investors continue
to shift to risky assets and higher returns, a Reuters poll of
currency strategists found.
Following a stocks rally in November, the dollar - which
thrives in a risk-off environment - weakened around 3.0% last
month and is down almost 6% this year, putting the currency en
route for its worst yearly performance since 2017.
Despite around 14 million people infected in the U.S. by the
coronavirus, hopes for fresh fiscal stimulus and a vaccine will
keep global stocks well bid and the dollar weak over the medium
term.
The Federal Reserve is expected to give markets a better
steer soon on how long it will continue to buy bonds to provide
support to the U.S. economy, which could hurt the dollar.
Over two-thirds of analysts - 51 of 72 - who answered a
separate question expected the downward dollar trend to last at
least until mid-2021. The remaining 21 said it would reverse
before that.
Those results match findings from a November global stocks
poll where a majority of analysts said the current equity bull
run would continue for six months or more.
"You can't have such an over-valued dollar, it's as simple
as that. The dollar had become and still is significantly
over-valued on pretty much any measure that I can think of as a
result of monetary policy divergence, and convergence takes away
all reasons for that," said Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at
Societe Generale.
"The market reacting to that monetary policy adjustment is
accelerating because that seems to bring reasons to look for
better investment opportunities abroad."
Despite the dim outlook, the dollar's role in the global
payments system will limit the currency from slipping too much.
Most currencies that strengthened significantly against the
dollar in 2020 were not expected to repeat their performances
next year.
The euro, which has risen over 8% this year, is
forecast to give up some of its gains and trade around $1.20
over the next three months. The currency was trading around
$1.21 on Thursday.
"There's a lot of good news in the price right now. Markets,
with respect to the vaccine news, have behaved as if we're
already there, but the reality is that we've got a quarter or
two of really nasty economic news before we get there," said
Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.
"With so much good news in the price, I think perhaps there
is the possibility we will see a little bit of a retrenchment.
I'm not looking for the euro to totally fade away but I do think
there is a possibility we have some sort of pullback in the euro
in the next few months."
The euro was forecast to gain nearly 2% in a year to trade
at $1.23, the highest 12-month prediction in nearly two and a
half years.
Emerging-market currencies have taken a beating this year,
but saw a turnaround in November as foreign investors returned,
a trend expected to help those currencies post some gains
against the dollar over the next 12 months.
"We knew all the issues of dollar weakness, we just didn't
see any currencies that looked attractive. But right now, with
the rebound in China and the pick-up in commodity prices, all of
a sudden there are places to put your money," said Steve
Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered.
(For other stories from the December Reuters foreign
exchange poll:
(Reporting by Hari Kishan; polling by Sujith Paik; editing by
Larry King)