Suncor Energy : 2022 Suncor Corporate Guidance – May 2022 (PDF, 4 pages, 1 MB)

SUNCOR ENERGY - 2022 CORPORATE GUIDANCE

May 9, 2022

2022 Corporate Guidance

Suncor's 2022 Corporate Guidance provides ranges for production and other key metrics of the company's business, as well as targets for capital expenditures and other items. It is management's expectation that actual results will fall

within these respective ranges, however Suncor makes no representation as to where actual results will fall within a particular range and will update this Corporate Guidance if actual results are, or are anticipated to be, materially outside of these ranges.

2022 Full Year Outlook
May 9, 2022
Suncor Total Production (boe/d) (1)	750,000 - 790,000
Oil Sands Operations (bbls/d) (2)	395,000 - 435,000
Synthetic Crude Oil (bbls/d)	310,000 - 330,000
Bitumen (bbls/d)	85,000 - 105,000
Fort Hills (bbls/d) Suncor working interest of 54.11%	85,000 - 100,000
Syncrude (bbls/d) Suncor working interest of 58.74%	175,000 - 190,000
Exploration and Production (boe/d)	75,000 - 85,000
Suncor Refinery Throughput (bbls/d)	430,000 - 445,000
Suncor Refinery Utilization (3)	92% - 96%
Refined Product Sales (bbls/d)	550,000 - 580,000

• 1) Production ranges for Oil Sands operations, Fort Hills, Syncrude and Exploration and Production are not intended to add to equal Suncor Total Production.

• 2) Oil Sands operations production includes synthetic crude oil, diesel, and bitumen and excludes Fort Hills PFT bitumen and Syncrude synthetic crude oil production. These ranges reflect the integrated upgrading and bitumen production performance risk.

• 3) Refinery utilization is based on the following crude processing capacities: Montreal - 137,000 bbls/d; Sarnia - 85,000 bbls/d; Edmonton - 146,000 bbls/d; and Commerce City - 98,000 bbls/d.

Capital Expenditures (4)

(C$ millions)

Upstream Oil Sands
Upstream E&P
Total Upstream
Downstream
Corporate
Total
2022 Full Year Outlook
May 9, 2022
Other Information
Oil Sands Operations Cash Operating Costs ($/bbl) (6)(9)	$27.00 - $30.00
Fort Hills Cash Operating Costs ($/bbl) (7)(9)	$25.00 - $28.00
Syncrude Cash Operating Costs ($/bbl) (8)(9)	$33.00 - $36.00
Current Income Taxes (C$ millions)	$4,000 - $4,300
Canadian Tax Rate (effective)	24% - 25%
US Tax Rate (effective)	22% - 23%
UK Tax Rate (effective)	37% - 42%
Average Corporate Interest Rate	5% - 6%
Oil Sands Operations Crown Royalties (10)	13% - 16%
Fort Hills Crown Royalties (10)	5% - 7%
Syncrude Crown Royalties (10)	20% - 23%
East Coast Canada Royalties (10)	13% - 17%
Business Environment (11)
Oil Prices - Brent, Sullom Voe ($US/bbl)	$101.00
WTI, Cushing ($US/bbl)	$97.00
WCS, Hardisty ($US/bbl)	$84.00
Refining Margin - NY Harbor 2-1-1 crack ($US/bbl)	$38.00
Natural Gas Price - AECO - C Spot ($CAD/GJ)	$6.10
Exchange Rate (CADUSD)	$0.78

2022 Full Year Outlook	% Economic
May 9, 2022	Investment (5)
3,200 - 3,350	25%
400 - 450	95%
3,600 - 3,800	30%
700 - 850	10%
200 - 250	75%
4,700	30%

• 4) Capital expenditures exclude capitalized interest of approximately $180 million.

• 5) Balance of capital expenditures represents Asset Sustainment and Maintenance capital expenditures. For definitions of Economic Investment and Asset Sustainment and Maintenance capital expenditures, see the Capital Investment Update section of Suncor's Management's Discussion and Analysis for the First Quarter of 2022 dated May 9, 2022(the "MD&A"), available at www. sedar.com.

• 6) Oil Sands operations cash operating costs per barrel are based on the following assumptions: production volumes, sales mix, and average natural gas prices as described in the tables above.

• 7) Fort Hills cash operating costs per barrel are based on the following assumptions: production volumes and average natural gas prices as described in the tables above.

• 8) Syncrude cash operating costs per barrel are based on the following assumptions: production volumes, sales mix, and average natural gas prices as described in the tables above.

• 9) Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs and Syncrude cash operating costs are non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP financial measures are not prescribed by GAAP and therefore do not have any standardized meaning. Users are

cautioned that these measures may not be fully comparable to one another or to similar information calculated by other entities due to differing operations. For more information, see the Cash Operating Costs and Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory sections of the MD&A. Both sections are incorporated by reference herein.

• 10) Reflected as a percentage of gross revenue.

• 11) Approximates the forward pricing curve at the time of publication.

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Suncor's 2022 Full Year Outlook is comprised of forward-looking statements and information (collectively, "forward-looking statements"). All forward-looking statements for the 2022 fiscal year are based on Suncor's current

expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that were made by the company in light of its experience and its perception of historical trends including expectations and assumptions concerning: the accuracy of reserves estimates; the current and potential adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the status of the pandemic and future waves; commodity prices and interest and foreign exchange rates; the performance of assets and equipment; capital efficiencies and cost-savings; applicable laws and government policies; future production rates; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; the availability and cost of labour, services and infrastructure; the satisfaction by third parties of their obligations to Suncor; the development and execution of projects; and the receipt, in a timely manner, of regulatory and third-party approvals. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some that are similar to other oil and gas companies and some that are unique to our company. Suncor's actual results may differ materially from

those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on them.

Assumptions for the Oil Sands operations, Syncrude and Fort Hills 2022 production outlook include those relating to reliability and operational efficiency initiatives that the company expects will minimize unplanned maintenance in 2022. Assumptions for the Exploration and Production 2022 production outlook include those relating to reservoir performance, drilling results and facility reliability. Factors that could potentially impact Suncor's 2022 corporate guidance include, but are not limited to:

• • Bitumen supply. Bitumen supply may be dependent on unplanned maintenance of mine equipment and extraction plants, bitumen ore grade quality, tailings storage and in situ reservoir performance.

• • Third-party infrastructure. Production estimates could be negatively impacted by issues with third-party infrastructure, including pipeline or power disruptions, that may result in the apportionment of capacity, pipeline or third-party facility shutdowns, which would affect the company's ability to produce or market its crude oil.

• • Performance of recently commissioned facilities or well pads. Production rates while new equipment is being brought into service are difficult to predict and can be impacted by unplanned maintenance.

• • Unplanned maintenance. Production estimates could be negatively impacted if unplanned work is required at any of our mining, extraction, upgrading, in situ processing, refining, natural gas processing, pipeline, or offshore assets.

• • Planned maintenance events. Production estimates, including production mix, could be negatively impacted if planned maintenance events are affected by unexpected events or are not executed effectively. The successful execution of maintenance and start-up of operations for offshore assets, in particular, may be impacted by harsh weather conditions, particularly in the winter season.

• • Commodity prices. Declines in commodity prices may alter our production outlook and/or reduce our capital expenditure plans.

• • Foreign operations. Suncor's foreign operations and related assets are subject to a number of political, economic and socio-economic risks.

• • Government Action. Further action by the Government of Alberta regarding production curtailment may impact Suncor's Corporate Guidance and such impact may be material.

• • COVID-19 Pandemic: This guidance is subject to a number of external factors beyond our control that could significantly influence this outlook, including the status of the COVID-19 pandemic and future waves, and any associated policies around current business restrictions, shelter-in-place orders, or gatherings of individuals. As a result of the volatile business environment and the uncertain pace of an economic recovery it is challenging to determine the overall outlook for crude oil and refined product demand, which remains dependent on the status of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suncor's News Release dated May 9, 2022, the MD&A, and Suncor's most recently filed Annual Information Form, Form 40-F, Annual Report to Shareholders and other documents it files from time to time with securities regulatory authorities describe the risks, uncertainties, material assumptions and other factors that could influence actual results and such factors are incorporated herein by reference. Copies of these documents are available without charge from

Suncor at 150 6th Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta T2P 3Y7, by calling 1-800-558-9071, or by email request [e-mail] by referring to the company's profile on SEDAR atwww.sedar.com or EDGAR at

www.sec.gov.Except as required by applicable securities laws, Suncor disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Certain natural gas estimates provided for above have been converted to barrels of oil equivalent (boe) on the basis of one barrel of oil to six thousand cubic feet of natural gas. Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.