On Thursday Take-Two Interactive announced annual booking forecasts below Wall Street's (revised) expectations, a direct result of the highly publicized delay of Grand Theft Auto VI to fiscal year 2027. This decision weighs heavily on the group's outlook for the current year, despite a rich catalog of new releases. Following the announcement, Take-Two shares fell 4% in after-hours trading.
The sixth installment of the Grand Theft Auto saga, one of the most lucrative franchises in video game history, is expected to be a global event, likely to generate several billion dollars in the first few weeks after its release. Initially planned for fiscal year 2026, its release is now scheduled for the following fiscal year, thereby significantly reducing this year's pre-order potential.
During the conference call that followed its results, Take-Two executives said they had recorded a $3.5bn impairment charge in Q4, relating to a revision of their long-term outlook. However, they said that 25 titles were in development for fiscal years 2027 and 2028, including GTA VI.
Amongst the releases planned for this year are Borderlands 4 and Mafia: The Old Country. While these games enjoy strong brand recognition, they are unlikely to offset the impact of the GTA VI delay, whose absence opens a strategic window for other publishers looking to capitalize on a temporarily less competitive market.
"Despite the delay, Take-Two should post above-industry average growth thanks to its strong franchises such as Borderlands and Mafia," said Wyatt Swanson, an analyst at D.A. Davidson & Co. James Heaney, an analyst at Jefferies, is similarly confident about the future: "We've been here before: TTWO is planning for a more moderate and conservative year ahead of the expected inflection point with GTA VI. We see little change in the fundamental outlook and were encouraged by management's comments that fiscal year 2027 will be the new benchmark for bookings and higher profitability."
Added to this are other challenges: persistent inflation and economic uncertainty could dampen spending by gamers, who are becoming increasingly selective in their purchases. For fiscal year 2026, Take-Two now anticipates bookings of between $5.9bn and $6bn, compared to a revised average estimate of $6.46bn according to Visible Alpha data. This adjustment marks a temporary setback for the publisher, ahead of what is expected to be a massive rebound around the highly anticipated launch of GTA VI.
