But
Shortly after being inaugurated on Wednesday,
The difference between now and five years ago is that producers have two promising alternative pipelines -- the Line 3 replacement and the
And, he added, after more than five years of poor oil prices and a lack of access to capital markets to raise money, their expectations for growing their oil production have been greatly diminished.
"It was worse when it happened in 2015 .. that was bad back then because we didn't have the big rail buildout and we really didn't have Line 3, no one really knew about that," said Skolnick.
"This is bad because (the government of)
Incremental capacity additions to pipelines, technology that makes oil transport more efficient and crude-by-rail capacity that hit a record of 412,000 bpd last February mean the system will be "pipe neutral" — with capacity matching demand — in the first half of this year, he said.
The 1,947-kilometre pipeline is designed to carry 830,000 barrels a day of crude oil from
The two other export pipelines will provide enough capacity to allow oil production to grow into the second half of this decade, said
But uncertainty about future capacity make it impossible for producers to make decisions about new multibillion-dollar oilsands projects, which could take five years or more to plan and build, despite growing demand for heavy oil from
"It puts a damper on investment expectations," Masson said, noting that Canadian oil and gas capital spending fell from more than
"For something to be started up after 2025, you really have to start working on it today."
Excess space in the oil transport system is vital to provide optionality, energy security and stable pricing, said
"We want to be somewhat long in takeaway capacity and access to markets rather than short, which creates (price) discounting," he said.
On Wednesday, Kenney warned that Biden's decision to cancel Keystone XL after construction had already started sets a "precedent" that could put existing pipelines at risk of "retroactive" shutdowns.
But neither Skolnick nor Masson agreed shutting operating pipelines is a likely scenario given the potential damage that could result for oil consumers in the
Bloomer said that's not something his members are worried about.
"Existing operating pipelines? The economy would come to a grinding halt and there would be massive devastating economic impacts if that were to happen," he said.
In early 2016,
In a report on Thursday, analysts with
The report also suggests
The company warned Wednesday it will likely post "substantive'' mostly non-cash writedowns in its first-quarter financial results.
Earlier Thursday,
The company had previously warned that blocking the project would lead to thousands of job losses.
This report by
Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)
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