Projected Income Statement: Tencent Holdings Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Tencent Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -20,243 -14,832 54,740 -76,798 -107,145 -84,325 -172,031 -324,591
Change - 26.73% 469.07% -240.3% -39.52% 21.3% -104.01% -88.68%
Announcement Date 3/23/22 3/22/23 3/20/24 3/19/25 3/18/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Tencent Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 33,392 18,014 23,893 76,760 79,198 139,216 139,572 137,096
Change - -46.05% 32.64% 221.27% 3.18% 75.78% 0.26% -1.77%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 141,794 128,077 198,069 181,761 223,854 196,155 250,247 290,884
Change - -9.67% 54.65% -8.23% 23.16% -12.37% 27.58% 16.24%
Announcement Date 3/23/22 3/22/23 3/20/24 3/19/25 3/18/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Tencent Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 30.92% 29.58% 38.66% 41.96% 44.75% 42.81% 43.81% 45.4%
EBIT Margin (%) 48.49% 42.5% 26.28% 31.52% 32.13% 32.8% 32.95% 33.57%
EBT Margin (%) 44.29% 37.91% 26.49% 36.57% 36.88% 35.54% 35.78% 36.11%
Net margin (%) 40.14% 33.95% 18.92% 29.39% 29.91% 28.45% 28.84% 29.12%
FCF margin (%) 25.32% 23.1% 32.52% 27.53% 29.78% 23.74% 27.69% 29.39%
FCF / Net Income (%) 63.07% 68.04% 171.91% 93.66% 99.56% 83.43% 96.01% 100.92%

Profitability

        
ROA 15.26% 11.8% 7.3% 11.56% 13.59% 11.62% 11.45% 11.23%
ROE 29.77% 24.64% 15.06% 21.78% 24.4% 19.71% 18.45% 17.7%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - 0.23x - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - 0.28x - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.96% 3.25% 3.92% 11.63% 10.53% 16.85% 15.44% 13.85%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 19.28% 10.98% 10.15% 27.71% 23.54% 39.35% 35.24% 30.51%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 23.55% 14.06% 12.06% 42.23% 35.38% 70.97% 55.77% 47.13%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 18.07 15.07 23.1 27.48 32.78 37.01 39.72 47.01
Change - -16.6% 53.28% 18.97% 19.31% 12.89% 7.31% 18.37%
Dividend per Share 1 1.298 2.4 3.129 3.164 - 5.293 5.771 6.504
Change - 84.86% 30.36% 1.12% - - 9.04% 12.7%
Book Value Per Share 1 84.62 75.71 85.52 103.5 124.9 150.3 177.2 200.9
Change - -10.53% 12.95% 21% 20.65% 20.35% 17.92% 13.36%
EPS 1 23.16 19.34 11.89 20.49 24.15 25.67 28.79 32.4
Change - -16.5% -38.54% 72.34% 17.9% 6.3% 12.13% 12.52%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 9,540,009 9,408,797 9,352,822 9,132,925 9,032,821 8,977,496 8,977,496 8,977,496
Announcement Date 3/23/22 3/22/23 3/20/24 3/19/25 3/18/26 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 15.5x 13.9x
PBR 2.66x 2.25x
EV / Sales 4.23x 3.77x
Yield 1.33% 1.45%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
46
Last Close Price
399.08CNY
Average target price
596.51CNY
Spread / Average Target
+49.47%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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  4. Financials Tencent Holdings Limited