INVESTOR DAY 2021
Accelerating Growth
FEBRUARY 23, 2021
1
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This presentation has been prepared by The Carlyle Group Inc. (together with its affiliates, "Carlyle") and may only be used for informational purposes. All information contained herein is presented as of December 31, 2020, unless otherwise specifically noted. Unless otherwise expressly stated herein any analysis or outlook relating to the matters discussed herein express Carlyle's views only as of February 23, 2021. Carlyle undertakes no obligation to publicly update or review any forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. This presentation may not be referenced, quoted or linked by website, in whole or in part except as agreed to in writing by Carlyle.
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS. Statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and/or beliefs of Carlyle. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Certain information contained in this presentation constitutes "forward-looking statements," which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may," "will," "should," "seek," "expect," "anticipate," "forecast," "project," "estimate," "intend," "continue," "target," or "believe" or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Statements related to projected Assets Under Management ("AUM"), Distributable Earnings ("DE"), Fee Related Earnings ("FRE"), fundraising, fee revenue for future periods could be impacted by the level of investment performance, our ability to fundraise and the fees we can charge on such commitments, the pace and scale of capital deployment which may not be consistent with historical levels, the pace and success of exit activity, changes in regulations and laws (including tax laws), our ability to scale existing businesses and wind-down underperforming businesses, our ability to manage expenses and retain key personnel, our ability to manage stock dilution and our ability to charge and retain transaction fees. Even if we were to achieve our goals, there is no guarantee that such fundraising will translate into increased earnings and margins. There can be no assurance that Carlyle's strategic goals will ultimately be realized or if realized, that they will have the effect of accelerating our growth or earnings. All projections assume benign market conditions. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including those listed in this disclaimer and described under the section entitled "Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10‐K for the year ended December 31, 2020 as filed with the SEC on February 11, 2021 (the "Annual Report"), as such factors may be updated from time to time in our periodic filings with the SEC, which are accessible on the SEC's website atwww.sec.gov. These factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included in this presentation and in our filings with the SEC.
CORPORATE CONVERSION. On January 1, 2020, we completed our conversion from a Delaware limited partnership named The Carlyle Group L.P. into a Delaware corporation named The Carlyle Group Inc. Unless the context suggests otherwise, references in this report to "Carlyle", the "Company", "we", "us", and "our" refer (i) prior to the consummation of the conversion, to The Carlyle Group L.P. and its consolidated subsidiaries and (ii) from and after the consummation of the conversion, to The Carlyle Group Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. References to our common stock in periods prior to the conversion refer to the common units of The Carlyle Group L.P. References to our dividends in periods prior to the conversion refer to the distributions of The Carlyle Group L.P.
PAST PERFORMNCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. In considering investment performance information contained in this presentation, prospective investors should bear in mind that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that Carlyle or any Fund will achieve comparable results. Actual realized value of currently unrealized investments will depend on, among other factors, future operating results, the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition, any related transaction costs and the timing and manner of sale, all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which the current unrealized valuations are based. Accordingly, the actual realized values of unrealized investments may differ materially from the values indicated herein.
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NOT A RECOMMENDATION OF ANY SECURITY. This presentation provides an overview of Carlyle and is not intended to be taken by, and should not be taken by, any individual recipient as investment advice, a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to purchase any security. An offer or solicitation for an investment in any investment fund managed or sponsored by Carlyle or its affiliates ("Fund") will occur only through an offering memorandum and related purchase documentation, and subject to the terms and conditions contained in such documents and in such Fund's operative agreements. The offering memorandum relating to any Fund contains additional information about the investment objective, terms and conditions of such Fund, tax information and risk disclosure that should be reviewed prior to making an investment decision regarding a Fund. This presentation is qualified in its entirety by such offering memorandum, which should be read completely before making any investment. An investment in a Fund would be speculative and would involve significant risks. Nothing in this presentation is intended to be taken by, and should not be taken by, any individual recipient as investment advice, a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to purchase any security.
RETURN CALCULATIONS. The fund return information reflected in this presentation is not indicative of the performance of The Carlyle Group Inc. and is also not necessarily indicative of the future performance of any particular fund. There can be no assurance that any of Carlyle's funds or its other existing and future funds will achieve similar returns. See "Risk Factors - Risks Related to Our Business Operations - The historical returns attributable to our funds, including those presented in this report, should not be considered as indicative of the future results of our funds or of our future results or of any returns expected on an investment in our common units" in the Annual Report. As used throughout this document, and unless otherwise indicated, "Gross IRR" represents the annualized internal rate of return for the period indicated on limited partner invested capital based on contributions, distributions and unrealized value before management fees, expenses and carried interest, which will reduce returns and, in the aggregate are substantial. "Net IRR" represents the annualized internal rate of return for the period indicated on limited partner invested capital based on contributions, distributions and unrealized value after management fees, expenses and carried interest (but not taxes borne by investors). "Gross MOIC" represents total fair value, before management fees, expenses and carried interest, divided by cumulative invested capital. An investment is considered realized when the investment fund has completely exited, and ceases to own an interest in, the investment. An investment is considered partially realized when the total proceeds received in respect of such investment, including dividends, interest or other distributions and/or return of capital represents at least 85% of invested capital and such investment is not yet fully realized. For Global Private Equity, since inception means since 1987, US Buyout since inception means since 1987, Asia Buyout since inception means since 1999 and Europe Buyout means since 1998 and since inception for US Opportunistic Real Estate means 1997.
COMPARISON TO INDEXES. This presentation includes comparisons of certain private equity indices to various indexes including certain MSCI indexes (MSCI) and the S&P 500 and other indexes. These comparisons are provided for illustrative purposes only. The private equity indices do not represent the performance of any Fund or family of Funds. you should not infer that any Fund is top quartile. There are significant differences between the types of securities and assets typically acquired by U.S. and global buyout funds, the investments covered by the MSCI, S&P 500 and other indexes. Specifically, U,S. and global buyout funds typically make investments in securities and other assets that have a greater degree of risk and volatility, and less liquidity, than those securities included in these indexes and companies included in the indexes are not subject to certain of the management fees, carried interest or expenses to which investors in U.S. and global buyout funds are typically subject. Comparisons between private equity funds, Carlyle sponsored funds, the MSCI, S&P 500 and other indexes are included for informational purposes only. The private equity returns do not represent the performance of any Fund or family of Funds. You can not invest directly in an index. You should not infer that any Fund is top quartile.
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NON-GAAP METRICS. This presentation includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures, Distributable Earnings ("DE"), Fee Related Earnings ("FRE"), FRE Margin, and Net Accrued Performance Revenues. These Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered only as supplemental to, and not as superior to, financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to the Q4 2020 earnings release and the end of this presentation for a reconciliation of the Non-GAAP financial measures included in this presentation to the most directly comparable financial measured prepared in accordance with GAAP. Please see Carlyle's public filings for the definitions of "carry funds," "Assets under management" ("AUM"), and "Fee-earning assets under management" ("Fee-earning AUM" or "FEAUM"). A reconciliation of forward-looking Non-GAAP financial measures cannot be provided without unreasonable effort because of the inherent difficulty of accurately forecasting the occurrence and financial impact of the various adjusting items necessary for such reconciliation that have not yet occurred, are out of our control, or cannot be reasonably predicted. For the same reasons, Carlyle is unable to assess the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could have a material impact on its future GAAP financial results.
For purposes of the non-financial operating and statistical data included in this presentation, including the aggregation of our non-U.S. dollar denominated investment funds, foreign currencies have been converted to U.S. dollars at the spot rate as of the last trading day of the reporting period when presenting period end balances, and the average rate for the period has been utilized when presenting activity during such period. With respect to capital commitments raised in foreign currencies, the conversion to U.S. dollars is based on the exchange rate as of the date of closing of such capital commitment.
MANAGEMENT FEES AND PERFORMANCE REVENUES. Detailed information about Carlyle's management fees and performance revenues is available in Carlyle's public filings. Please note that certain metrics and projections contained in this Presentation include the Legacy Energy Funds and funds advised by NGP Energy Capital Management. Please note that the Legacy Energy Funds (as defined in Carlyle's public filings), are managed with Riverstone Holdings LLC and its affiliates. Affiliates of both Carlyle and Riverstone act as investment advisers to each of the Legacy Energy Funds. Currently, Carlyle is only entitled to carried interest and management fees in certain funds advised by NGP Energy Capital Management. The NGP Energy Capital Management funds which solely earn management fees are referred to herein as "NGP predecessor funds."
THIRD PARTY SOURCES. Although the information presented in this presentation has been obtained from sources that Carlyle believes to be reliable, Carlyle makes no representations as to its accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness for any purpose. The information set forth herein does not purport to be complete and Carlyle is not responsible for errors and/or omissions with respect to the information contained herein.
DIVIDEND POLICY. Under our dividend policy for our common stock that we adopted in connection with the Conversion, we expect to pay our common stockholders an annualized dividend of $1.00 per share of common stock, equal to a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share of common stock. The declaration and payment of any dividends to holders of our common stock are subject to the discretion of our Board of Directors, which may change our dividend policy at any time or from time to time, and the terms of our certificate of incorporation. There can be no assurance that dividends will be made as intended or at all or that any particular dividend policy will be maintained.
TERMS OF USE POLICY. By accessing or using the 2021 Carlyle Investor Day materials, you hereby accept and agree to comply with the Terms of Use Policy of the Carlyle Website (www.carlyle.com) as though incorporated and set forth fully herein. You acknowledge your understanding that the Terms of Use Policy constitute a binding agreement between you and Carlyle that governs your access and use of the 2021 Carlyle Investor Day materials, which includes any images, text, illustrations, designs, icons, photographs, programs, music clips, downloads, video clips, graphics, user interfaces, visual interfaces, information, data, tools, products, written materials, services and other content, including but not limited to the design, structure, selection, coordination, expression and arrangement of the content available on or through the Carlyle website and the 2021 Carlyle Investor Day materials.
Copies of this presentation are available upon request from Carlyle by contacting Daniel Harris, Head of Public Market Investor Relations, atdaniel.harris@carlyle.comor +1 (212)
813-4527.
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RISK FACTORS
Certain statements in this presentation are based on current management expectations; and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our Annual Report and other SEC filings, including without limitation:
• Our business could be negatively impacted in many ways by adverse economic and market conditions or changes in the debt financing markets, including by reducing the value or performance of investments made by our investment funds and reducing the ability of our funds to raise capital or obtain attractive financing or re-financing.
• The global outbreak of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, has caused severe disruptions in the U.S. and global economies and may continue to adversely impact, our performance and results of operations.
• Our use of leverage may expose us to substantial risks and our revenue, earnings and cash flow are variable, which makes it difficult for us to achieve steady earnings growth on a quarterly basis.
• We may not be successful in expanding into new investment strategies, markets and businesses, including business initiatives to increase the number and type of investment products we offer to retail investors
• We may reduce our AUM, restrain its growth, reduce our fees or otherwise alter the terms under which we do business when we deem it in the best interest of our investors, even when such actions may be contrary to the near term interests of stockholders
• Poor performance of our investment funds would cause a decline in our revenue, income and cash flow, may obligate us to repay carried interest previously paid to us, and could adversely affect our ability to raise capital. Our asset management business depends in large part on our ability to raise capital from third-party investors.
• Our investors may negotiate to pay us lower management fees and the economic terms of our future funds may be less favorable to us than those of our existing funds, which could adversely affect our revenues.
• Valuation methodologies for certain assets in our funds can involve subjective judgments, and the fair value of assets established pursuant to such methodologies may be incorrect, which could result in the misstatement of fund performance and accrued performance allocations. Historical returns attributable to our funds should not be considered as indicative of the future results.
• Dependence on significant leverage in investments by our funds could adversely affect our ability to achieve attractive rates of return on those investments.
• The alternative asset management business is intensely competitive and we often pursue investment opportunities that involve business, regulatory, legal or other complexities and relatively high-risk, illiquid assets.
• The investments of our Global Private Equity, Global Credit and Investment Solutions funds are subject to a number of inherent risks.
• We may need to pay "giveback" obligations if they are triggered under the governing agreements with our investors.
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RISK FACTORS (continued)
• Operational risks may disrupt our businesses, result in losses or limit our growth and failure to maintain the security of our information and technology networks, intellectual property and proprietary business information could have a material adverse effect on us.
• Extensive regulation in the United States and abroad, including financial regulatory changes (such as those regarding derivatives and commodity interest transactions), affects our activities, increases the cost of doing business and creates the potential for significant liabilities, penalties and additional burdens.
• Third-party investors in substantially all of our carry funds have rights that in certain circumstances could lead to a decrease in our revenues. In addition, third-party investors in our investment funds with commitment-based structures may not satisfy their contractual obligation to fund capital calls when requested by us, which could adversely affect a fund's performance.
• Our private equity funds' performance, and our performance, may be adversely affected by the financial performance, financial projections or contingent liabilities of our portfolio companies and the industries in which our funds invest, including securities of companies that are experiencing significant financial or business difficulties.
• Investments in the insurance industry (including our investment in Fortitude Holdings) could be adversely impacted by insurance regulations and potential regulatory reforms. Our relationship with Fortitude Holdings may not generate a meaningful contribution to our revenue and our ownership and control of Fortitude Holdings could give rise to real or apparent conflicts of interest.
• Ongoing trade negotiations and potential for further regulatory reform may create regulatory uncertainty for our portfolio companies and our investment strategies and adversely affect the profitability of our portfolio companies.
• We are subject to substantial litigation risks, including allegations of employee misconduct or fraud (including at our portfolio companies), and may face significant liabilities and damage to our professional reputation as a result of such allegations and negative publicity.
• Changes in U.S. and foreign tax regulations, including the comprehensive U.S. federal income tax reform that became effective in 2018, could adversely affect us and our ability to raise funds from certain foreign investors.
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Investor Day Agenda | Accelerating Growth
TOPIC
PRESENTER
Accelerating Our Growth
KEWSONG LEE
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
We Delivered Exceptional Financial Results . . .
RECORD FEE | RECORD NET ACCRUED | ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT |
RELATED EARNINGS | PERFORMANCE REVENUE | PERFORMANCE |
$520 | $2.3 | 19% |
Million | Billion | CORPORATE |
PRIVATE EQUITY | ||
30% FRE MARGIN1 | +36% IN 2020 | |
APPRECIATION |
And We Remained Very Active in a Challenging Year
STRONG DEPLOYMENT | REALIZED PROCEEDS | ROBUST FUNDRAISING |
MOMENTUM | ||
$18.3 | $21.0 | $27.5 |
Billion | Billion | Billion |
Strong Performance
RECORD FEE | RECORD NET ACCRUED | ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT |
RELATED EARNINGS | PERFORMANCE REVENUE | PERFORMANCE |
$520 MN | $2.3 BN | 19% |
30% FRE Margin1 | +36% in 2020 | Corporate Private Equity Appreciation |
STRONG | BUILDING REALIZED | ROBUST |
DEPLOYMENT | PROCEEDS MOMENTUM | FUNDRAISING |
$18.3 BN | $21.0 BN | $27.5 BN |
Our Founders Were Pioneers
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We Have Built a Leading Global Investment Firm
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY $132 BN
• Corporate Private Equity
• Real Estate
• Natural Resources
INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS $58 BN
• Primary
• Secondaries
• Co-investments
GLOBAL CREDIT $56 BN
• Liquid Credit
• Illiquid Credit
• Real Assets Credit
13
Trust Integrity Partnership
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We Have Made Tremendous Progress in Our Evolution
SINGLE BUYOUT FUND
MULTI-ASSET INVESTMENT FIRM
US CENTRIC
GLOBAL REACH & LOCAL EXECUTION
PRODUCT PROLIFERATION
FOCUSED, LARGE & SCALABLE PLATFORMS
15
We Have Made Tremendous Progress in Our Evolution
OPERATIONAL SILOS
PLATFORM APPROACH & INSTITUTIONAL VALUE CREATION
FOCUS ON PERFORMANCE FEES
FOCUS ON FRE & DE
PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
PUBLIC CORPORATION
Multi-stakeholder approach to building better
16
Guiding Principles Underpin Our Strategic Plan
17
Think Bigger Perform Better Move Faster
This is today's Carlyle
18
Our Strategic Plan
1
2
3
ACCELERATE SCOPE & SCALE OF INVESTMENT
PLATFORMCAPITALIZE ON NEW OPPORTUNITIES
THROUGH ADJACENCIESINSTITUTIONALIZE
THE FIRM
DRIVE EARNINGS GROWTH & LONG-TERM SHAREHOLDER VALUE
19
Our Strategic Plan
2
CAPITALIZE ON NEW OPPORTUNITIES
THROUGH ADJACENCIES
3
INSTITUTIONALIZE
THE FIRM
Accelerate Scope & Scale 1of Investment Platform
Raise $130+ Billion in New Capital to Fuel Our Growth
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY
• Further scale flagship products
• Accelerate growth equity
GLOBAL CREDIT
• Scale existing platform & strategies
• Capture growth in newly launched strategies
• Identify avenues for incremental organic growth
INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS
• Capitalize on increased investor demand
• Broaden & deepen platform
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
Raise $130+ Billion in New Capital to Fuel Our Growth
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY
• Further scale flagship products
• Accelerate growth equity
GLOBAL CREDIT
• Scale existing platform & strategies
• Capture growth in newly launched strategies
• Identify avenues for incremental organic growth
INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS
• Capitalize on increased investor demand
• Broaden & deepen platform
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
Capture More Growth in Global Private Equity
• Capture additional opportunity in growth equity
• Increase focus on longer dated core private equity & core plus real estate
• Position for market shift to infrastructure & renewables
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
EXTEND
Reputation for Responsibly Managing Large Quantum of Capital
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY AT SCALE & ACTIVE
(SINCE INCEPTION, $ BILLIONS)
Capital Raised
Capital Invested
Realized Proceeds
$209
Note: Capital raised, capital invested and realized since inception of each fund strategy.
Growing Deployment across Cycles
Strong & Consistent Performance
TOTAL FUND MOIC
U.S. BUYOUT
U.S. REAL ESTATEASIA BUYOUT
HARVESTING
FUNDS
EUROPE GROWTH
Note: See the significant fund performance tables included in our earnings release and filings with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission for more information on the performance of our funds.
Positioned to Return Significant Capital to LPs
RECORD GPE PORTFOLIO VALUE POISED TO ACCELERATE REALIZATIONS
($ BILLIONS)
$89
+68%
$58
$53
$36
2008
2012
2016
2020
Continue Strong Growth Trajectory in Global Credit
BUILT BROAD PLATFORM CAPABILITIES
SCALE NEW STRATEGIES / ADDRESS NEW OPPORTUNITIES
CARLYLE GLOBAL CREDIT ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT ($BN)
2015
2020
Note: 2015 AUM reflects Global Credit AUM, and does not include AUM associated with our former hedge fund and commodity strategies. Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
2024
Raise $130+ Billion in New Capital to Fuel Our Growth
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY
• Further scale flagship products
• Accelerate growth equity
GLOBAL CREDIT
• Scale existing platform & strategies
• Capture growth in newly launched strategies
• Identify avenues for incremental organic growth
INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS | |
• | Capitalize on increased investor demand |
INVESTMENT | |
SOLUTIONS | Broaden & deepen platform |
• | |
$20 BN |
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
Private Credit Poised for Continued Growth
Source: Preqin. There is no assurance that these trends will continue.
Scale Global Credit Earnings & Improve Margins
$8 | ||
2015 | 2020 | 2024 |
FRE Margin | ||
7% | 28% | Mid 40%s |
Note: 2015 FRE does not include earnings associated with our former hedge fund and commodity strategies. |
Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
Raise $130+ Billion in New Capital to Fuel Our Growth
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY
• Further scale flagship products
• Accelerate growth equity
GLOBAL CREDIT
• Scale existing platform & strategies
• Capture growth in newly launched strategies
• Identify avenues for incremental organic growth
INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS
• Capitalize on increased investor demand
• Broaden & deepen platform
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
Our Solutions Platform Has Emerged As An Industry Leader
Investment Solutions $58 Billion AUM
ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT
$20 Billion
$14 Billion
$24 Billion
WHAT?
Purchase of underlying assets or restructured portfoliosDirect investments in private companies alongside GPs
ADD TITLE
Commitments to investment funds
Drive Investment Solutions Growth & Performance
Note: Refer to Carlyle's SEC filings regarding significant funds.
SECONDARY | 13% MAIN FUND VI - SECONDARY INVESTMENTS |
GROSS IRR
LATEST FULLY INVESTED FUND
CO-INVESTMENT | 28% MAIN FUND VI - CO-INVESTMENTS |
PRIMARY | 20% MAIN FUND VI - FUND INVESTMENTS |
Consistent & Attractive Investment Performance
Note: Total MOIC as of 12/31/2020. Funds shown reflect latest three fully invested main funds.
Refer to Carlyle's SEC filings regarding significant funds. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
Improving Investment Solutions Economics
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
Guiding Principles Underpin Our Strategic Plan
Scaling Our Investment Platform Is Supported by Industry Tailwinds & Attractive Trends
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Attractive Industry Returns Support Strong Growth
GLOBAL BUYOUT & GROWTH OUTPERFORMANCE1
DIRECT LENDING OUTPERFORMS
WITH LOWER LOSSES2
ATTRACTIVE REAL ESTATE RETURNS3
1. Cambridge Associates, Buyout & Growth Equity Index and Selected Benchmark Statistics; March 31, 2020.
2. Cliffwater Direct Lending Index YT3. Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Index YTW.
3. Cambridge Associates, National Council of RE Invest Fiduciaries.
There is no assurance that this trend will continue. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the comparison of our investment returns to various indexes.
LPs Are Allocating More in Search of Returns
PENSION FUNDS ARE ALLOCATING MORE TO PRIVATE MARKETS
PE & VC
MEDIAN CURRENT ALLOCATION
Private DebtReal EstateInfrastructureNatural Resources
13%
2% 7%
9%
4%
2% 6%
2010
Note: Represents median allocations of disclosed public pension plans. Source: Preqin.
2020
41
The Opportunity Set For Private
Capital is Growing
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Accelerating Change Is Driving Investment Opportunity
NEW & GROWING REGIONS
CHINA, INDIA, JAPAN
EXPANDING ASSET CLASSES
CREDIT, INFRASTRUCTURE, SECONDARIES
NEW STRATEGIES
CORE, LONG-DATED, PERMANENT CAPITAL
GROWING INDUSTRY SECTORS
TECHNOLOGY, HEALTHCARE
SECULAR CHANGES
DISRUPTION, ENERGY TRANSITION, SUSTAINABILITY
BUSINESS PREFERENCES & STRATEGIC ACTIVITY
COMPANIES STAYING PRIVATE LONGER, CORPORATE CARVE-OUTS FROM M&A
Trends Favor the Largest Global Investment Firms
Note: Represents median allocations of disclosed public pension plans. Source: Preqin. There is no guarantee these trends will continue. 1. As a percent of capital from our top 30 limited partners..
Our Strategic Plan
ACCELERATE SCOPE & SCALE OF INVESTMENT
1
PLATFORM
3
INSTITUTIONALIZE
THE FIRM
Capitalize on New Opportunities 2through Adjacencies
Carlyle's Global Platform Drives Significant Capital Market Activity
• Our platform drives enormous capital markets activity
• Carlyle is one of the most experienced and respected participants in global capital markets
• We have methodically built out in-house capital markets expertise
• Capital markets team well capitalized and plugged in to deal flow
• Expect to capture more value for Carlyle with minimal incremental expense
Presented for illustrative purposes only. Source: Dealogic.
NEARLY $300 BILLION FINANCIAL ACTIVITY IN CARLYLE RELATED DEALS (LAST 5 YEARS, $BN)
Earning Fees from Our Transaction Flow
FEES RELATED TO CARLYLE ACTIVITY
($MN)
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections. See End Notes for more information on the historical breakdown of fees from Carlyle activities.
1. Of equity and debt underwriting fees.
We do not want to become an investment bank
We are a global investment firm
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Fortitude Is the Foundation of Our Insurance Solutions Strategy
LEVERAGES OUR | DRIVES MULTIPLE | STRONG |
INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS | SOURCES OF | OPERATING |
PLATFORM | REVENUE | FUNDAMENTALS |
$4.7 BN | ~$50 MN | 13-15% |
Assets rotated / committed to | Fee run-rate on related funds & | Mid-teens ROE on $465 MN |
25 Carlyle products (through 2020) | investment income / carry to come | investment into Fortitude |
Enormous Potential to Expand Insurance Solutions
LARGE ADDRESSABLE MARKET & OPPORTUNITY
We estimate the global market
for potential transactions to
further leverage our Insurance
capabilities exceeds
$2 TN+
Source: Carlyle analysis of global insurance opportunity for potential transactions fitting our acquisition requirements. We define the global opportunity set to include North America, developed Europe, and developed APAC markets. There is no guarantee these projections will materialize.
51
We do not want to become an insurance company
We are a global investment firm
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How We Think About External Growth
Broad-Based Strategic M&A Considerations
THEMES
EXAMPLES
For illustrative purposes only.
Our Strategic Plan
ACCELERATE SCOPE & SCALE OF INVESTMENT
1
PLATFORM
2
CAPITALIZE ON NEW OPPORTUNITIES
THROUGH ADJACENCIES
3Institutionalize the Firm
Operating More Effectively to Drive Margins
MAXIMIZING OUR RESULTS
• Manage expenses to capture operating leverage while we grow
• Utilize learnings from operating during Covid-19 to improve future operations & results
• Exit areas that cannot scale
• Use technology to continue reducing operating costs
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
Attracting & Maintaining Best-in-Class Leadership
Aligning & Incentivizing
Fostering a Diverse & Inclusive Culture
>50% | 63% | 56% |
OF OUR AUM IS | OF US PEOPLE HIRED IN | OF NEW DIRECTORS IN OUR |
MANAGED BY WOMEN | 2020 WERE FEMALE OR | CONTROLLED PORTFOLIO |
ETHNIC MINORITIES1 | COMPANIES WERE DIVERSE2 | |
RECOGNITION | ||
Only Private Equity firm included in | Carlyle was honored with the 2019 | Received Private Equity Int'l award |
Bloomberg's Gender Equality | SuperReturn Award for Achievement | for "30 Big Ideas Shaping ESG |
Index in 2021 | in Promoting Diversity | Finance" |
1. In 2020, 58% of people hired in EMEA were female, and 52% of people hired in Asia were female.
2. In 2020, 56% of new directors in the companies globally that we've controlled for at least two years were diverse.
Maintaining Leadership in ESG
Building Better Businesses Through Impact & ESG
01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 |
DIVERSE & | ENGAGED | SUSTAINABLE | CLIMATE | COMMUNITY |
INCLUSIVE TEAMS | EMPLOYEES | GROWTH | ||
RESILIENCE | TIES | |||
INVESTOR DAY 2021 |
What This Means for Shareholders
We Have Ambitious Goals
$1.6 BN+
IN DISTRIBUTABLE EARNINGS COMPRISED OF
$800 MN+
$800 MN+
IN FEE RELATED EARNINGS
IN NET REALIZED PERFORMANCE REVENUE
Note: Information presented is illustrative and not intended to predict future events. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of, and reliance on, projections.
The Environment Continues to Be Challenging
…AND WHAT ELSE?
Carlyle Has Demonstrated Resiliency, Adaptability & Agility
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 66
Carlyle's Platform Is Diverse & Adaptable
GLOBAL CREDIT | REAL | CORPORATE | INFRA & | INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS |
ESTATE | PRIVATE EQUITY | REAL ASSETS |
Carlyle Has Changed & Adapted
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 68
2020 Results Are Just the Beginning
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 69
Guiding Principles Drive Us
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 70
Ambitious & Achievable Strategic Plan
DRIVE EARNINGS GROWTH & LONG-TERM SHAREHOLDER VALUE
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 71
Industry Trends Are Tailwinds
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 72
Closely Aligned with Our LPs
80%
OF OUR LARGEST LPs INVESTED IN 4 OR MORE
FUND STRATEGIES1
1. As a percent of capital from our top 30 limited partners..
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 73
We Are Building Better in All We Do
01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 |
DIVERSE & | ENGAGED | SUSTAINABLE | CLIMATE | COMMUNITY |
INCLUSIVE TEAMS | EMPLOYEES | GROWTH | ||
RESILIENCE | TIES | |||
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL | ||||
INVESTOR DAY 2021 | 74 |
Trust Integrity Partnership
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 75
A Global Investment Firm Creating Long-Term Value On
Behalf Of All Of Our
Stakeholders
TRADE SECRET & STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 76
Think Bigger Perform Better Move Faster
This is today's Carlyle
Endnotes
SLIDE 48
• Debt fees primarily consist of underwriting and arranger fees paid to banks or other financial intermediaries on Global Private Equity and Global Credit portfolio company issued debt facilities
• Equity fees primarily consist of underwriting fees paid to banks or other financial intermediaries in connection with Global Private Equity and Global Credit portfolio company IPOs, secondary and follow-on transactions
• Advisory fees primarily consist of sell-side advisory fees, paid in connection with the sale of a Carlyle portfolio company, or buy-side advisory fees, paid by Carlyle or a Global Private Equity or Global Credit investment funds in connection with acquisition of a target company
• Global Credit & Other Fees primarily consist of trading fees paid in connection with credit trading activity, fund line of credit fees, CLO structuring fees, or other ancillary fees paid in connection with various fund-level leverage facilities
Financial Overview & Guidance
CURT BUSER
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Delivering for Shareholders…
Carlyle Has Been
And Our Strategic Plan Positions Us for Accelerating Growth
Significant FRE Growth Since 2017
Improving Earnings Mix
Record Accrual Driven by Fund PerformanceContinued Top-Line Expansion
Poised to Execute on Growth Drivers
Monetization of Performance Revenue
Benefits of C-Corp Conversion
Margin Expansion through Operating Excellence
Fee Related Earnings Have Ramped Significantly...
FEE RELATED EARNINGS ($MN)
$520
$194
2012-17 Avg
2018
2019
2020
17%
25%
28%
30%FRE Margin
Note: 2020 Fee Related Earnings were $520 million, or $490 million excluding the impact of $30 million in one-time recoveries; 2020 FRE margin of 30% excludes the impact of recoveries.
…Resulting in an Improved Earnings Mix
DISTRIBUTABLE EARNINGS ($MN)
2012-2017 Avg
2018
2019
FRE as % of DE
EARNINGS MIX WILL BE
MORE BALANCED
BETWEEN FRE & CARRY IN FUTURE PERIODS
2020
Accrued Performance Revenue Is at Record Levels
PERFORMANCE REVENUES ($MN)
2012-2017 Avg
2018
Net Realized
Performance Revenue
2019
2020
Net Accrued Performance
Revenue (Balance)
See Notes at end of document.
Our Strategic Plan Will Result in Accelerating Growth
1
2
3
ACCELERATE / SCALE / EXPAND
Drive higher management fees & operating leverage
CAPTURE ADJACENCIES
Generate incremental & diverse revenue streams
INSTITUTIONALIZE
Control costs, align senior execs with performance, improve margins
Double Distributable Earnings by 2024
DISTRIBUTABLE EARNINGS
(PRE-TAX)DISTRIBUTABLE EARNINGS
PER SHARE
2020
2020
2024
Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of and reliance on projections.
2024
Effective DE Tax Rate
5%
20-22%
Grow Fee Related Earnings to $800 Million & Triple Realized Performance Revenues
FEE RELATED EARNINGS
& FRE MARGINNET REALIZEDPERFORMANCE REVENUES
2020
2024
FRE Margin
2020
2024
30%
40%
Note: 2020 Fee Related Earnings were $520 million, or $490 million excluding the impact of $30 million in one-time recoveries. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of and reliance on projections.
Moving from Guidance to Execution
1Scale & Diversify Fee Revenues
Fundraising Target of $130+ Billion through 2024
FUNDRAISING ($BN)
Note: Historical Gross Fundraising amounts exclude amounts related to our former hedge fund platform. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of and reliance on projections.
Total Fee Revenue Organically Grows & Diversifies through the Cycle
Note: Excludes the impact of former hedge fund platform. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of and reliance on projections.
• Timing driven by fee initiation for largest funds
• Top-line growth accelerates with next major multi-year fundraising campaign
• In the short term, growth in Global Credit & Investment Solutions offsets realizations in Global Private Equity
• Expect modest overall management fee growth in 2021
Current & Future Stable Fee Rates
EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.0%
0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
0.79% 0.78%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2024
Note: Excludes the impact of former hedge fund platform. Effective Management Fee Rate reflects management fee revenue divided by average Fee-earning AUM for each year. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of and reliance on projections.
Capture Incremental Growth 2Through Adjacencies
Capture More Transaction Fees
DRIVE HIGHER LEVELS OF FEES FROM:
GROWING OUR GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS
CAPABILITIES
GENERATING MORE TRANSACTION FEES
FROM OUR INVESTMENT
ACTIVITY
Note: Excludes portfolio advisory fees and other income. Transaction fees are net of rebates to limited partners. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of and reliance on projections.
Insurance Strategy Drives Multiple Earnings Streams
Insurance Solutions
CONTRIBUTION TO EARNINGS SHOULD
INCREASE BOTH ORGANICALLY AND
BY ACQUISITION
Drive Margin Expansion Through 3Institutionalization & Expense
Management
Institutionalize & Align Our Business to Gain Scale & Operating Leverage
FEE RELATED EARNINGS ($MN)
$194
2012-17 Avg 17%
$520
2018 25%
2019 28%
2020 30%
FRE Margin
2024 40%
Leadership team incentivized to deliver on FRE growth targets through performance-based equity compensation
Note: 2020 Fee Related Earnings were $520 million, or $490 million excluding the impact of $30 million in one-time recoveries. Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of and reliance on projections.
Scaling Our Platform Drives Increased Efficiency
TOTAL AUM PER INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL
+21%
AVERAGE: $345 MN $360
AVERAGE:$286 MN
$340
$334
$306
$298
INCREASED EFFICIENCY DRIVES
Improved Margins
2014
2015
Note: Excludes the impact of former hedge fund platform.
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Opportunity for Permanent Savings in General & Administrative Expenses
• Learnings from 2020 can generate more permanent savings in travel & conference costs
• Virtual & teaming technology can speed decisions, enable remote work & potentially save office-related costs
• Improved risk management & lower litigation costs can reduce spend on professional fees
Note: 2020 G&A expense of $271 million excludes the offsetting positive impact of $30 million in recoveries.
2020 G&A IMPACT ($MN)
$331 | Down 22% $271 |
2019
2020
4Monetize Performance
Record Net Accrued Performance Revenue Supports a Near-Term Realization Ramp
1500Net Realized Performance Revenues
…And we are now primed to return
Mid-
to prior leve$l3s's& beyond
$800
500
0
2012-17 Avg ±40%
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2018 19%
2019 10%
2020 14%
REALIZATIONS AS % OF BEGINNING OF YEAR ACCRUAL
Please see the "Important Information" slide for more information about the use of and reliance on projections. See Notes at end of document.
0
2024
100
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The Carlyle Group LP published this content on 23 February 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 23 February 2021 13:51:05 UTC.