Mosaic : 2021 Q2 Presentation / Commentary

SECOND QUARTER 2021 EARNINGS COMMENTARY

August 2, 2021

Management of The Mosaic Company provided the following commentary to accompany its second quarter 2021 earnings news release and performance data:

Mosaic delivered excellent results in the second quarter of 2021 reflecting the company's ability to meet customer demand, capitalize on elevated nutrient prices, and generate significant adjusted EBITDA growth.

For the second quarter of 2021, net income totaled $437 million, compared to $47 million in the same period a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was $829 million compared with $383 million in the second quarter of 2020. Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.14, and adjusted EPS, excluding notable items, was $1.17. This compares to the second quarter 2020 EPS of $0.12 and adjusted EPS of $0.11.

Adjusted EBITDA was the highest second quarter total in over a decade and reflected significant year-over-year performance improvements in all three of our operating segments. In addition to an improved pricing environment, these results reflect the groundwork we've laid over the last five years, which include the acquisition and integration of Mosaic Fertilizantes; asset portfolio

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optimization; transformation activities across the business; Nextgen operations in both phosphates and potash; and the successful acceleration of K3.

Global agriculture market fundamentals are strong. Grain and oilseed prices remain elevated as demand for food and fuel continues to grow. Despite higher corn and soybean acreage this year vs. last year, expected carry outs do not appear to be enough to raise year-end stock to use ratios to historical averages, suggesting crop prices will remain elevated into 2022. With elevated prices likely persisting to next year, farmer economics should remain attractive and are expected to continue driving acreage increases with a focus on adequate crop nutrition. Fertilizers remain affordable in most growing regions around the world.

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With strong agricultural fundamentals underpinning demand and near-term supply growth in phosphates and potash limited, fertilizer prices continued to strengthen throughout the quarter. The phosphate market benefited from sustained global demand and low producer and channel inventories during the second quarter. This impacted customer behavior as buyers' concern of limited availability drove them to seek supply and, in North America, to focus on acquiring summer fill supply. Beyond 2021, the phosphate supply and demand balance is expected to remain tight as a result of limited supply additions, while elevated crop prices point to ongoing demand driven by favorable farmer economics and fertilizer affordability.

In potash, North American corn belt prices increased 40 percent during the quarter, while outside of North America, spot China standard rose nearly 60% percent. In Brazil, spot prices for granular MOP rose over 65 percent during the second quarter.

Longer term potash supply and demand fundamentals remain constructive even as Canadian producers bring on more supply to meet customer needs.

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Mosaic continues to make progress toward our 13 ESG targets, which were introduced in 2020, and have increased our focus on accelerating our diversity and inclusion activities, particularly in the areas of recruiting, corporate culture, and external partnerships.

Our product portfolio initiatives reflect our determination to support soil health while adding value for our growers. Our partnerships with Anuvia, BioConsortia, Sound Agriculture, and AgBiome provide us with opportunities to supply farmers with products across a wide range of applications from soil enhancement to nitrogen fixing and other biologicals. This year, in addition to field trials on three biological products, we have also begun advancing early testing on a number of additional products that range from biologicals and soil additives to digital tools. All of these initiatives are aimed at driving our mission to help the world grow the food it needs by increasing soil health and improving fertilizer utilization, which will benefit both farmers and the environment.

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At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had over $4 billion in liquidity, including $1.4 billion in cash, $2.2 billion of committed lines of credit, and $500 million of other available lines. The company is well positioned to retire the $450 million November debt maturity in August and continues to target additional long- term debt reduction of $550 million over time.

We are evaluating further opportunities to add value through deployment of capital as we continue to generate excess free cash flow from strong markets and our cost savings in the second half of 2021. We remain committed to a balanced capital allocation program that focuses on balance sheet strength, capital return to shareholders and investment in the business. Beyond potential further debt reduction and additional capital return to shareholders, we have also identified approximately $75 million of growth spending in 2021 with an average payback period of approximately 3 years and average returns approaching 100 percent. In addition, to further accelerate the completion of the K3 project and limit production losses from the closures of K1 and K2, we are bringing forward about $20 million of capital spending into 2021. As a result, we now expect capital expenditures in 2021 to total $1.2 billion.

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