Mosaic : 2021 Q4 Presentation / Commentary

The Mosaic Company

2021 Results

Date: February 22, 2022

Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the economic impact and operating impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential drop in oil demand / production and its impact on the availability and price of sulfur and labor shortages; political and economic instability, civil unrest or armed conflict in countries in which we do business or changes in government policy in Brazil, such as higher costs associated with the new mining rules or the implementation of new freight tables; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic's international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the performance of the Wa'ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the timely development and commencement of operations of production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine, which is operated by an entity in which we are the majority owner; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic's decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic's operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic's processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management's current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC; reduction of Mosaic's available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic's potash mines or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic's operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake any duty to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

This press release includes the presentation and discussion of non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share guidance, or adjusted EPS, non-GAAP gross margin per tonne, or adjusted gross margin per tonne, non- GAAP adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, referred to as non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a supplemental numerical measure of a company's performance, financial position or cash flows that either excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered as substitutes for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because non-GAAP measures are not determined in accordance with GAAP, they are thus susceptible to varying interpretations and calculations and may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. Adjusted metrics, including adjusted EPS, adjusted gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA are calculated by excluding the impact of notable items from the GAAP measure. Notable items impact on gross margin and EBITDA is pretax. Notable items impact on diluted net earnings per share is calculated as the notable item amount plus income tax effect, based on expected annual effective tax rate, divided by diluted weighted average shares. Management believes that these adjusted measures provide securities analysts, investors, management and others with useful supplemental information regarding our performance by excluding certain items that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, our core operating results. Management utilizes these adjusted measures in analyzing and assessing Mosaic's overall performance and financial trends, for financial and operating decision-making, and to forecast and plan for future periods. These adjusted measures also assist our management in comparing our and our competitors' operating results. We are not providing forward looking guidance for U.S. GAAP reported diluted net earnings per share, gross margin per tonne, or a quantitative reconciliation of forward-looking adjusted EPS, adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA because we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty our notable items without unreasonable effort. Historically, our notable items have included, but are not limited to, foreign currency transaction gain or loss, unrealized gain or loss on derivatives, acquisition-related fees, discrete tax items, contingencies and certain other gains or losses. These items are uncertain, depend on various factors, and could have a material impact on U.S. GAAP reported results for the guidance period. Reconciliations for Non-GAAP financial measures contained in this press release are found below. Reconciliations for current and historical periods beginning with the quarter ended March 31, 2020 for consolidated adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, as well as segment adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross margin per tonne are provided in the Selected Calendar Quarter Financial Information performance data for the related periods. This information is being furnished under Exhibit 99.2 of the Form 8-K and available on our website at www.mosaicco.com in the "Financial Information - Quarterly Earnings" section under the "Investors" tab.

2021 Performance

CONSOLIDATED	OPERATING	NET	ADJUSTED(1)
REVENUES	EARNINGS	EARNINGS	EBITDA

$12.4B

$2.5B

$1.6B

$3.6B

+42% Y/Y

+498% Y/Y

+145% Y/Y

+129% Y/Y

PHOSPHATES

POTASH

MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES

Net

Operating

Adjusted

Net

Operating

Adjusted

Net

Operating

Adjusted

Revenues

Earnings

EBITDA(1)

Revenues

Earnings

EBITDA(1)

Revenues

Earnings

EBITDA(1)

2021

$4.9B

$1.2B

$1.7B

$2.6B

$837M

$1.3B

$5.1B

$745M

$821M

2020

$3.1B

$(147)M

$536M

$2.0B

$402M

$722M

$3.5B

$347M

$473M

Repaid $450 million of long-term debt

Raised annual dividend by 50%

Repurchased $411 million in shares

(1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information	3

Segment Highlights

Potash

Mosaic Fertilizantes

Phosphates

• Accelerated completion of K3's second shaft in the fourth quarter; Production ramp completed by the end of 1Q22
• Successfully restarted operations at Colonsay; 4Q cash production costs of $85/tonne
• Exceeded $200 million target for EBITDA(1) contribution from transformation initiatives two years ahead of schedule
• Coproduct sales grew to $466 million in 2021, up 150% from 2020
• Record MicroEssentials® shipments of 3.3 million tonnes
• Significant benefit realized from access to low-cost ammonia

(1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information	4

Solid Agricultural Fundamentals

Stock-to-use ratio is at the lowest point since 2003/04 and unlikely to recover in a single season

World (Less China) Grain and Oilseed Stocks

Stocks, MMT

475

450

425

400

375

350

325

300

275

250

225

200

2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020
					Stocks					Percent of Use

23%

22%

21%

20%

19%

18%

17%

16%

15%

14%

13%

12%

Use of Percent

Source: USDA February 2022; Data through February 17, 2022

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