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Appendix to conference call presentation Q3 2022
Safe Harbor Statement
Matters discussed in this release may constitute forward looking statements. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides safe harbor protections for forward-looking statements in order to encourage companies to provide prospective information about their business. Forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and other statements, which are other than statements of historical facts. The Company desires to take advantage of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and is including this cautionary statement in connection with this safe harbor legislation. Words such as, but not limited to, "believe", "anticipate", "intend", "estimate", "forecast", "project", "plan", "potential", "may", "should", "expect", "pending" and similar expressions or phrases may identify forward-looking statements.
The forward-looking statements in this release are based upon various assumptions, many of which are, in turn, based upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management's examination of historical operating trends, data contained in our records and other data available from third parties. Although the Company believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies that are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond our control, the Company cannot guarantee that it will achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs or projections.
Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward- looking statements include, but are not limited to, the strength of the world economy and currencies, general market conditions, including fluctuations in charter hire rates and vessel values, the duration and severity of the ongoing COVID- 19 pandemic, including its impact on the demand for petroleum products and the seaborne transportation of these and the ability to change crew and operate a vessel with COVID-19 infected crew, the operations of our customers and our business in general, the failure of our contract counterparties to meet their obligations, changes in demand for "ton-miles" of oil carried by oil tankers and changes in demand for tanker vessel capacity, the effect of changes in OPEC's petroleum production levels and worldwide oil consumption and storage, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled and unscheduled dry-docking, changes in TORM's operating expenses, including bunker prices, dry-docking and insurance costs, changes in the regulation of shipping operations, including actions taken by regulatory authorities including but not limited to CO2 tariffs or trade tariffs, potential liability from pending or future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents, weather, political events including "trade wars", the geopolitical crisis related to Russia and Ukraine or acts of terrorism.
In light of these risks and uncertainties, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements contained in this release because they are statements about events that are not certain to occur as described or at all. These forward- looking statements are not guarantees of our future performance, and actual results and future developments may vary materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.
Except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, the Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions or updates to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this release or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Please see TORM's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a more complete discussion of certain of these and other risks and uncertainties. The information set forth herein speaks only as of the date hereof, and the Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of developments occurring after the date of this communication.
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TORM's commercial capabilities are focused on optimizing geographical positioning
USD/day | (%) | |||||||||||||
West outperformance | 14,000 | 80 | Majority of TORM's | |||||||||||
12,000 | MRs west of Suez | |||||||||||||
10,000 | 70 | |||||||||||||
8,000 | ||||||||||||||
6,000 | 60 | |||||||||||||
4,000 | ||||||||||||||
2,000 | ||||||||||||||
0 | 50 | |||||||||||||
East outperformance | 2,000 | Majority of TORM's | ||||||||||||
4,000 | 40 | MRs east of Suez | ||||||||||||
6,000 | ||||||||||||||
8,000 | 30 | |||||||||||||
10,000 | ||||||||||||||
12,000 | ||||||||||||||
14,000 Q1-17 | Q3-17 | Q1-18 | Q3-18 | Q1-18 | Q3-19 | Q1-20 | Q3-20 | Q1-21 | Q3-21 | Q1-22 | Q3-2220 |
TORM % of MRs positioned west of Suez (right axis) | West premium of benchmark earnings* (left axis) | |
* West premium calculated as spread between Atlantic triangulation (TC2 & TC14) and East MR basket containing Transpacific voyage (TC10), Singapore-Sydney voyage (TC7) and AG-East Africa voyage (TC17). | 3 |
Source: Clarksons, TORM. |
Geopolitical tensions creating a stronger tanker market
USD/day | LR2 (avg.) | |
85,000 | MR (avg.) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
TORM MR (spot) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
80,000 | TORM MR covered Q4 2022 as of 06 November 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
75,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
70,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
65,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
60,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
55,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
50,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
45,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
40,000 | Russia's invasion of | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Ukraine leading to | |||||||||||||||||||||||
35,000 | sanctions/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Texas freeze | self-sanctions | ||||||||||||||||||||||
30,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
25,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
20,000 | Hurricane Ida | ||||||||||||||||||||||
15,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
5,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Jan- | Feb- | Mar- | Apr- | May- | Jun- | Jul- | Aug- | Sep- | Oct- | Nov- | Dec- | Jan- | Feb- | Mar- | Apr- | May- | Jun- | Jul- | Aug- | Sep- | Oct- | Nov- | Dec- |
21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
Source: Clarksons. Spot earnings: LR2: average of Clarksons LR2 East combination (Ras Tanura->Chiba->Ulsan->Singapore) and East-West combination (Ulsan->Singapore->Mina Al Ahmadi->Rotterdam->Skikda->Chiba); MR: average | 4 |
basket of Rotterdam->NY,Bombay->Chiba, Mina Al Ahmadi->Rotterdam,Amsterdam->Lome,Houston->Rio de Janeiro, Singapore->Sydney. | |
Key drivers point towards a strong product tanker market
Demand | Supply | |||||||
• | Sanctions on Russia leading to trade recalibration | • | Historically low order book to fleet ratio meaning | |||||
drivers | towards longer distances, increasing ton-miles by | low fleet growth | ||||||
at around 7% | • | High newbuilding prices and limited shipyard | ||||||
Key | • | Refinery dislocation adding further 3% to ton-miles | space limiting ordering activity | |||||
• | The need to replenish inventories adding to trade | • | Tailwinds for the product tanker market from a | |||||
volumes | stronger crude tanker market | |||||||
Risks
- Economic slowdown and inflationary pressure leading to oil demand destruction
- Intensified political instability
- High earnings could lead to higher ordering activity (delivery from 2025 onwards)
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TORM plc published this content on 16 November 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 16 November 2022 09:28:05 UTC.