TotalEnergies expects its fourth-quarter results to benefit from the slight increase in refining margins, the group said on Thursday.

The European refining margin indicator (erm) for the fourth quarter was $25.9 per metric ton, compared with $15.4 per metric ton in the previous quarter.

Hydrocarbon production is expected to rise slightly, in the quarterly guidance between 2.4 and 2.45 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), according to the statement.

Integrated Power's fourth-quarter results are expected to come in at between $500 million and $600 million, leading to annual cash flow in line with guidance of over $2.5 billion, the group said.

Exploration-Production results are expected to reflect the $5 per barrel drop in liquids valuations, partially offset by higher gas prices.

Lower seasonal demand for natural gas weighed on the results of the major oil companies, with global demand for gasoline and diesel also below expectations, while the launch of new refineries in Asia and Africa led to a supply glut.

BP, Shell and Exxon issued warnings this month, as lower seasonal demand for natural gas weighed on results.

The world's leading oil and gas companies have seen their earnings decline throughout 2024, following record highs in the previous two years, as global oil demand weakened and energy prices stabilized after the volatility associated with Europe's loss of Russian gas supplies following the invasion of Ukraine.

TotalEnergies' adjusted net income fell for five consecutive quarters, reaching a three-year low at the end of September, due to production interruptions and a collapse in refining margins in Europe.

(Written by Mara Vîlcu, with Alban Kacher and America Hernandez, edited by Kate Entringer)