TotalEnergies announced on Wednesday adjusted net income of $4.2bn for Q1 2025, down 18% year-on-year and slightly below analysts' expectations of $4.3bn according to an LSEG Refinitiv consensus. This was despite a 4% year-on-year increase in production. This decline is mainly due to lower oil prices and persistently weak refining margins.

The energy giant, which is active in both hydrocarbons and renewables, emphasizes that the oil market remains volatile in a climate marked by uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's new tariff policies. The group anticipates that refining and petrochemical margins will remain "depressed" in the coming months.

On the other hand, TotalEnergies is benefiting from strong gas prices in Europe, against a backdrop of restocking. Gas stocks in Europe have fallen to fairly low levels due to a cold winter. The aim is to fill reserves to 90% by the beginning of next winter.

In this context, TotalEnergies is maintaining its focus on returning value to shareholders. It is planning an interim dividend of €0.85 per share for the first quarter, up 7.6%, and is confirming the continuation of its $2bn share buyback program in Q2.

All oil companies are suffering from the decline in oil prices. The price of Brent crude has fallen by around 16% since the beginning of the year. And it seems difficult to hope for a recovery in the coming months. On the demand side, the trade war launched by Donald Trump has led to a downward revision of global growth, which should translate into lower demand for oil. On the supply side, OPEC began in early April to put back on the market some of the 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts decided at the end of 2022. In addition, internal divisions, caused in particular by Kazakhstan exceeding its production quotas, could increase downward pressure on prices.

This situation is reflected in the stock market performance of oil companies. TotalEnergies, for example, has significantly underperformed the CAC40 over the past year. This trend is likely to continue today, as the stock is down sharply on the Paris Stock Exchange, while the Paris index is stable.