Financials Transurban Group

Equities

TCL

AU000000TCL6

Highways & Rail Tracks

Market Closed - Australian S.E. Other stock markets 02:10:36 2024-05-15 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
12.29 ^AUD	-1.84%		-4.95%	-10.36%

May. 14	NorthConnex Secures AU$205 Million 12-Year Bank Loan Facility	MT
May. 14	Transurban Group Appoints Commercial Chief as Part of New Operating Model	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	39,434	38,647	38,963	44,157	43,898	38,003	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	56,270	57,376	52,509	59,780	60,375	55,719	56,793	57,419
P/E ratio	223 x	-345 x	11.8 x	2,397 x	679 x	103 x	74.5 x	67 x
Yield	4%	3.33%	2.57%	2.85%	4.07%	4.97%	5.18%	5.44%
Capitalization / Revenue	9.47 x	10.7 x	13.5 x	13 x	10.6 x	9.09 x	8.92 x	8.6 x
EV / Revenue	13.5 x	15.9 x	18.2 x	17.6 x	14.5 x	13.3 x	13.3 x	13 x
EV / EBITDA	28.2 x	31.2 x	31.1 x	35.6 x	28.6 x	24 x	22 x	19.5 x
EV / FCF	36.8 x	38.9 x	67.8 x	39 x	35 x	25 x	26.3 x	28.2 x
FCF Yield	2.71%	2.57%	1.47%	2.56%	2.86%	4.01%	3.81%	3.55%
Price to Book	4.34 x	4.91 x	3.76 x	2.98 x	3.49 x	3.27 x	3.71 x	4.27 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,675,298	2,735,103	2,738,110	3,070,715	3,080,547	3,092,176	-	-
Reference price ²	14.74	14.13	14.23	14.38	14.25	12.52	12.52	12.52
Announcement Date	8/6/19	8/11/20	8/8/21	8/17/22	8/15/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: Juni	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	4,166	3,616	2,886	3,406	4,157	4,181	4,259	4,421
EBITDA ¹	1,996	1,841	1,691	1,681	2,108	2,326	2,581	2,940
EBIT ¹	1,026	663	551	574	997	1,156	1,470	1,648
Operating Margin	24.63%	18.34%	19.09%	16.85%	23.98%	27.65%	34.51%	37.28%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	30	-320	-480	-260	66	459	586.1	779.8
Net income ¹	171	-111	3,303	16	64	415.8	507.4	592.7
Net margin	4.1%	-3.07%	114.45%	0.47%	1.54%	9.94%	11.91%	13.41%
EPS ²	0.0660	-0.0410	1.206	0.006000	0.0210	0.1215	0.1680	0.1868
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,527	1,476	774	1,531	1,726	2,232	2,161	2,038
FCF margin	36.65%	40.82%	26.82%	44.95%	41.52%	53.39%	50.74%	46.11%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	76.5%	80.17%	45.77%	91.08%	81.88%	95.98%	83.75%	69.34%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	892.98%	-	23.43%	9,568.75%	2,696.88%	536.87%	425.9%	343.92%
Dividend per Share ²	0.5900	0.4700	0.3650	0.4100	0.5800	0.6224	0.6487	0.6814
Announcement Date	8/6/19	8/11/20	8/8/21	8/17/22	8/15/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: June	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 S1	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 S1	2024 S2	2025 S1	2025 S2	2026 S1
Net sales ¹	2,121	1,495	1,423	1,463	1,301	2,105	2,032	2,125	2,125	2,034	1,927	1,964	2,068
EBITDA ¹	1,085	-	840	899	734	947	1,067	1,041	1,132	1,133	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	505	158	287	312	175	399	497	500	596	635.7	695.8	758.2	916.8
Operating Margin	23.81%	10.57%	20.17%	21.33%	13.45%	18.95%	24.46%	23.53%	28.05%	31.25%	36.1%	38.6%	44.33%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	16	-336	-539	59	-	1	-42	108	251	127	-	-	-
Net income ¹	189	-300	-419	3,722	-103	119	41	23	204	87	-	-	-
Net margin	8.91%	-20.07%	-29.44%	254.41%	-7.92%	5.65%	2.02%	1.08%	9.6%	4.28%	-	-	-
EPS ²	0.1370	-	-	1.359	-0.0350	-	0.0130	0.008000	0.0660	0.0500	0.0400	0.0300	0.0900
Dividend per Share ²	0.3100	0.1600	0.1500	0.2150	-	0.2600	0.2650	0.3150	0.3000	0.3200	-	-	-
Announcement Date	2/10/20	8/11/20	2/10/21	8/8/21	2/16/22	8/17/22	2/6/23	8/15/23	2/7/24	-	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	16,836	18,729	13,546	15,623	16,477	17,716	18,791	19,416
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	8.435 x	10.17 x	8.011 x	9.294 x	7.816 x	7.617 x	7.282 x	6.605 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,527	1,476	774	1,531	1,726	2,232	2,161	2,038
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	3.64%	-1.34%	-2.65%	0.13%	0.47%	3.69%	5.14%	6.79%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	0.76%	-0.31%	-0.67%	0.04%	0.17%	3.87%	4.59%	4.96%
Assets ¹	22,649	36,253	-493,574	37,322	38,346	10,735	11,053	11,947
Book Value Per Share ²	3.400	2.880	3.780	4.820	4.080	3.830	3.370	2.930
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.4600	0.4200	0.3300	0.3300	0.4700	0.4700	0.4900	0.5400
Capex ¹	1,874	1,569	1,045	613	1,175	1,232	935	379
Capex / Sales	44.98%	43.39%	36.21%	18%	28.27%	29.47%	21.96%	8.57%
Announcement Date	8/6/19	8/11/20	8/8/21	8/17/22	8/15/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Transurban Group

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

12.52 AUD

Average target price

13.24 AUD

Spread / Average Target

+5.75%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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JIANGSU EXPRESSWAY COMPANY LIMITED	+20.80%	7.57B
SALIK COMPANY	+7.40%	6.98B
IMPULSORA DEL DESARROLLO Y EL EMPLEO EN AMÉRICA LATINA, S.A.B. DE C.V.	+5.41%	6.61B
SHANDONG HI-SPEED COMPANY LIMITED	+28.53%	5.97B
ATLAS ARTERIA LIMITED	-7.27%	5.26B
GRUPO CCR S.A.	-9.24%	5.02B
PROMOTORA Y OPERADORA DE INFRAESTRUCTURA, S. A. B. DE C. V.	-0.79%	4.52B

Highway Operators