Financials Transurban Group

Equities

TCL

AU000000TCL6

Highways & Rail Tracks

Market Closed - Australian Stock Exchange Other stock markets 12:10:46 2023-12-05 am EST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
12.97 ^AUD	0.00%		+1.65%	-0.08%

Nov. 26	Transurban Group Announces Opening of Westconnex Rozelle Interchange in Sydney	CI
Oct. 25	Serco hires former Transurban executive to be Asia Pacific CEO	AN

Valuation

Fiscal Period : June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	39 434	38 647	38 963	44 157	43 898	40 055	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	56 270	57 376	52 509	59 780	60 375	57 634	58 488	59 035
P/E ratio	223x	-345x	11,8x	2 397x	679x	87,1x	63,7x	57,8x
Yield	4,00%	3,33%	2,57%	2,85%	4,07%	4,81%	5,01%	5,25%
Capitalization / Revenue	9,47x	10,7x	13,5x	13,0x	10,6x	9,59x	9,41x	8,96x
EV / Revenue	13,5x	15,9x	18,2x	17,6x	14,5x	13,8x	13,7x	13,2x
EV / EBITDA	28,2x	31,2x	31,1x	35,6x	28,6x	25,9x	23,2x	20,4x
EV / FCF	36,8x	38,9x	67,8x	39,0x	35,0x	27,5x	28,1x	28,6x
FCF Yield	2,71%	2,57%	1,47%	2,56%	2,86%	3,64%	3,56%	3,50%
Price to Book	4,34x	4,91x	3,76x	2,98x	3,49x	3,42x	3,91x	4,49x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2 675 298	2 735 103	2 738 110	3 070 715	3 080 547	3 088 257	-	-
Reference price ²	14,7	14,1	14,2	14,4	14,3	13,0	13,0	13,0
Announcement Date	08/06/19	08/11/20	08/08/21	08/17/22	08/15/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period : June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	4 166	3 616	2 886	3 406	4 157	4 176	4 255	4 471
EBITDA ¹	1 996	1 841	1 691	1 681	2 108	2 229	2 520	2 888
EBIT ¹	1 026	663	551	574	997	1 248	1 480	1 715
Operating Margin	24,6%	18,3%	19,1%	16,9%	24,0%	29,9%	34,8%	38,4%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	30,0	-320	-480	-260	66,0	506	687	835
Net income ¹	171	-111	3 303	16,0	64,0	443	609	625
Net margin	4,10%	-3,07%	114%	0,47%	1,54%	10,6%	14,3%	14,0%
EPS ²	0,07	-0,04	1,21	0,01	0,02	0,15	0,20	0,22
Free Cash Flow ¹	1 527	1 476	774	1 531	1 726	2 100	2 080	2 065
FCF margin	36,7%	40,8%	26,8%	45,0%	41,5%	50,3%	48,9%	46,2%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	76,5%	80,2%	45,8%	91,1%	81,9%	94,2%	82,5%	71,5%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	893%	-	23,4%	9 569%	2 697%	474%	342%	331%
Dividend per Share ²	0,59	0,47	0,37	0,41	0,58	0,62	0,65	0,68
Announcement Date	08/06/19	08/11/20	08/08/21	08/17/22	08/15/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period : June	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 S1	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 S1	2024 S2	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	2 052	2 121	1 495	1 423	1 463	1 301	2 105	2 032	2 125	1 997	2 060	1 977	1 993
EBITDA ¹	1 025	1 085	-	840	899	734	947	1 067	1 041	1 158	1 132	-	-
EBIT ¹	499	505	158	287	312	175	399	497	500	637	627	714	770
Operating Margin	24,3%	23,8%	10,6%	20,2%	21,3%	13,5%	19,0%	24,5%	23,5%	31,9%	30,4%	36,1%	38,6%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,00	16,0	-336	-539	59,0	-	1,00	-42,0	108	266	71,0	-	-
Net income ¹	26,0	189	-300	-419	3 722	-103	119	41,0	23,0	217	22,0	-	-
Net margin	1,27%	8,91%	-20,1%	-29,4%	254%	-7,92%	5,65%	2,02%	1,08%	10,9%	1,07%	-	-
EPS ²	0,01	0,14	-	-	1,36	-0,04	-	0,01	0,01	0,08	0,10	0,07	0,11
Dividend per Share	0,30	0,31	0,16	0,15	0,22	-	0,26	0,27	0,32	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	08/06/19	02/10/20	08/11/20	02/10/21	08/08/21	02/16/22	08/17/22	02/06/23	08/15/23	-	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period : June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	16 836	18 729	13 546	15 623	16 477	17 579	18 434	18 981
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	8,43x	10,2x	8,01x	9,29x	7,82x	7,89x	7,32x	6,57x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1 527	1 476	774	1 531	1 726	2 100	2 080	2 065
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	3,64%	-1,34%	-2,65%	0,13%	0,47%	3,58%	5,72%	6,78%
Shareholders' equity ¹	4 698	8 314	-124 555	12 378	13 496	12 367	10 647	9 218
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	0,76%	-0,31%	-0,67%	0,04%	0,17%	4,29%	4,78%	3,72%
Assets ¹	22 649	36 253	-493 574	37 322	38 346	10 334	12 745	16 802
Book Value Per Share ²	3,40	2,88	3,78	4,82	4,08	3,79	3,31	2,89
Cash Flow per Share ²	0,46	0,42	0,33	0,33	0,47	0,48	0,53	0,57
Capex ¹	1 874	1 569	1 045	613	1 175	1 190	933	292
Capex / Sales	45,0%	43,4%	36,2%	18,0%	28,3%	28,5%	21,9%	6,54%
Announcement Date	08/06/19	08/11/20	08/08/21	08/17/22	08/15/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Transurban Group

Trading Rating :

Investor Rating :

ESG Refinitiv :

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

12.97AUD

Average target price

13.61AUD

Spread / Average Target

+4.95%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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SOCIETÀ INIZIATIVE AUTOSTRADALI E SERVIZI S.P.A.	-.--%	3 803 M $
ALEATICA, S.A.B. DE C.V.	+7.59%	3 688 M $

Highway Operators