Financials Turning Point Brands, Inc.

Equities

TPB

US90041L1052

Tobacco

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 04:00:02 2025-02-14 pm EST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
69.63 ^USD	-1.00%		+1.84%	+15.86%

Feb. 11	Turning Point Brands Prices $300 Million Of 7.625% Senior Secured Notes Due 2032	RE
Feb. 10	Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Rise in Late Afternoon Trading	MT

Projected Income Statement: Turning Point Brands, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	362	405.1	445.5	415	405.4	400.1	412.6	434.1
Change	-	11.91%	9.96%	-6.84%	-2.32%	-1.3%	3.13%	5.21%
EBITDA ¹	67.34	90.24	108.1	97.6	95.3	102.4	106.1	113.8
Change	-	34.01%	19.77%	-9.69%	-2.36%	7.42%	3.64%	7.3%
EBIT ¹	50.95	82.46	94.28	75.51	82.58	82.12	91.4	101.5
Change	-	61.85%	14.33%	-19.91%	9.35%	-0.55%	11.29%	11.05%
Interest Paid ¹	-17.34	-20.23	-20.5	-19.52	-14.64	-13.36	-12.8	-14.05
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	15.82	43.06	65.3	16.01	61.68	66.68	78.82	87.44
Change	-	172.2%	51.67%	-75.49%	285.37%	8.11%	18.2%	10.94%
Net income ¹	13.77	33.04	52.06	11.64	38.46	49.92	59.51	66.03
Change	-	139.88%	57.56%	-77.64%	230.4%	29.8%	19.2%	10.95%
Announcement Date	2/26/20	2/10/21	2/22/22	2/24/23	2/28/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2019 Q4	2020 Q1	2020 Q2	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	80.22	90.69	105	104.2	105.3	107.6	122.6	109.9	105.3	100.9	102.9	107.8	103.4	101	105.6	101.7	97.12	97.06	108.5	105.6	99.96	100.4	103.7	104.2	104.3
Change	-	13.05%	15.74%	-0.75%	1.07%	2.24%	13.94%	-10.39%	-4.2%	-4.17%	2.01%	4.74%	-4.09%	-2.36%	4.6%	-3.67%	-4.52%	-0.06%	11.8%	-2.67%	-5.36%	0.42%	3.33%	0.45%	0.07%
EBITDA ¹	14.24	17.78	22.78	23.92	25.75	28	30	26.29	23.79	25.25	24.73	24.51	23.11	20.78	25.28	24.4	24.83	25.27	27.04	27.16	24.46	25.2	26.46	27.03	27.44
Change	-	24.91%	28.1%	5.03%	7.65%	8.72%	7.16%	-12.39%	-9.51%	6.17%	-2.09%	-0.86%	-5.74%	-10.05%	21.62%	-3.47%	1.76%	1.77%	6.98%	0.45%	-9.95%	3.02%	5%	2.18%	1.51%
EBIT ¹	4.62	15.96	17.34	21.86	23.88	24.96	25.58	23.1	20.64	22.46	21.6	19.82	18.32	18	21.43	20.24	23.95	19.27	22.95	20.53	19.49	21.45	22.7	23.41	23.84
Change	-	245.45%	8.62%	26.11%	9.24%	4.49%	2.5%	-9.69%	-10.65%	8.78%	-3.82%	-8.23%	-7.58%	-1.71%	19.01%	-5.55%	18.36%	-19.57%	19.14%	-10.56%	-5.08%	10.04%	5.87%	3.09%	1.86%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-6.109	-4.994	-4.98	-5.224	-5.028	-4.486	-5.522	-5.397	-5.094	-5.196	-5.144	-4.802	-4.382	-4.01	-4.019	-3.984	-2.632	-3.479	-2.991	-3.773	-3.125	-3.2	-3.2	-3.2	-3.2
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-17.21	4.221	12.49	9.612	16.73	14.18	19.47	17.51	14.14	14.11	6.775	15.09	-19.97	9.81	13.05	14.63	24.19	15.91	17.33	16.96	16.39	18.3	19.56	20.28	20.69
Change	-	-	196%	-23.07%	74.04%	-15.23%	37.27%	-10.05%	-19.22%	-0.23%	-51.99%	122.79%	-	-	32.99%	12.16%	65.33%	-34.25%	8.97%	-2.15%	-3.37%	11.64%	6.89%	3.71%	2.02%
Net income ¹	-12.26	3.275	9.227	7.796	12.74	11.78	15.36	13.47	11.45	11	5.424	11.54	-16.32	7.597	9.925	10.83	10.11	12.01	13	12.38	12.41	13.82	14.77	15.31	15.61
Change	-	-	181.74%	-15.51%	63.46%	-7.53%	30.31%	-12.29%	-14.95%	-3.98%	-50.68%	112.68%	-	-	30.64%	9.13%	-6.67%	18.81%	8.28%	-4.84%	0.31%	11.31%	6.93%	3.66%	1.91%
Announcement Date	2/26/20	4/28/20	7/28/20	10/27/20	2/10/21	4/27/21	7/27/21	10/26/21	2/22/22	4/27/22	7/27/22	10/26/22	2/24/23	5/3/23	8/2/23	11/8/23	2/28/24	5/2/24	8/1/24	11/7/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: Turning Point Brands, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt	189	248	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	31.22%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	2/26/20	2/10/21	2/22/22	2/24/23	2/28/24	-	-	-

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Turning Point Brands, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CAPEX ¹	4.815	6.135	6.156	7.685	5.707	7.978	8.225	7.3
Change	-	27.41%	0.34%	24.84%	-25.74%	39.8%	3.09%	-11.25%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	32.98	37.54	62.06	22.59	61.17	63.27	65.13	69.4
Change	-	13.84%	65.31%	-63.6%	170.83%	3.42%	2.95%	6.55%
Announcement Date	2/26/20	2/10/21	2/22/22	2/24/23	2/28/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Turning Point Brands, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	-	18.6%	22.27%	24.26%	23.52%	23.51%	25.59%	25.71%	26.22%
EBIT Margin (%)	-	14.08%	20.36%	21.16%	18.2%	20.37%	20.53%	22.15%	23.38%
EBT Margin (%)	-	4.37%	10.63%	14.66%	3.86%	15.22%	16.67%	19.1%	20.14%
Net margin (%)	-	3.81%	8.16%	11.69%	2.8%	9.49%	12.48%	14.42%	15.21%
FCF margin (%)	-	9.11%	9.27%	13.93%	5.44%	15.09%	15.81%	15.78%	15.99%
FCF / Net Income (%)	-	239.44%	113.63%	119.21%	194.04%	159.05%	126.73%	109.45%	105.11%
Profitability
ROA	13.08%	8.5%	8.91%	10.52%	8.49%	9.23%	-	-	-
ROE	37.2%	14.56%	27.83%	40.81%	9.03%	28.47%	-	-	-
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	2.81x	2.75x	-	-	-	-	-	-
Debt / Free cash flow	-	5.73x	6.61x	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	-	1.33%	1.51%	1.38%	1.85%	1.41%	1.99%	1.99%	1.68%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	-	7.15%	6.8%	5.7%	7.87%	5.99%	7.79%	7.75%	6.41%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	-	14.6%	16.34%	9.92%	34.02%	9.33%	12.61%	12.63%	10.52%
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	-	-	2.213	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share ¹	-	0.18	0.2	0.22	-	0.26	0.28	0.3	0.32
Change	-	-	11.11%	10%	-	-	7.69%	7.14%	6.67%
Book Value Per Share ¹	-	-	6.626	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS ¹	-	0.69	1.67	2.52	0.64	2.01	2.628	3.222	3.465
Change	-	-	142.03%	50.9%	-74.6%	214.06%	30.72%	22.65%	7.53%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	-	19,662	19,164	18,873	17,564	17,605	17,722	17,722	17,722
Announcement Date	-	2/26/20	2/10/21	2/22/22	2/24/23	2/28/24	-	-	-