It's hard to find anything more disappointing than Ubisoft these days. From a gaming perspective, the studio has locked itself into a handful of licenses that it is struggling to renew, with mechanics recycled ad infinitum, to the point of exhausting even its most loyal fans. As for its current projects, a thick fog hangs over their progress. The Splinter Cell remake? Missing in action. Beyond Good & Evil 2? Still in orbit. On the financial side, it's even more alarming: negative cash flow, bigger-than-expected losses... What next? A "year of transition" sprinkled with nice promises for 2026-2027. But the thing is, no one really believes it anymore, and the stock has been hammered on the market - down 20%.

There was hope

And yet we believed in it. The consensus was hoping for a rebound, as were gamers, especially with the release of Assassin's Creed Shadows. The long-awaited episode set in feudal Japan, developed using a new version of the Anvil engine, seemed to have everything going for it. And on paper, it's a hit: the second-best launch in the studio's history, just behind AC Valhalla... which, let's not forget, benefited from a global lockdown. A nice coup, but not enough to turn the tide.

Over the period, Ubisoft reported a net loss of €159m, an operating loss of €15.1m, and "net bookings" (equivalent to revenue) of €1.85bn. Analysts were expecting a net loss of $91m, break-even in terms of operating income, and bookings of $1.89bn. In short, everyone was off the mark. And this poor performance comes on top of other disappointments, such as the commercial failure of Star Wars Outlaws and the premature cancellation of the shooter game XDefiant.

Sweet promises

For the current fiscal year, Ubisoft is forecasting stable net bookings, operating income close to zero, and negative free cash flow due to its "transformation costs." The first quarter should be around €310m. Meanwhile, Yves Guillemot is trying to reassure investors: "The group is currently working on overhauling its operating model to better meet player expectations, deliver superior game quality, and ensure disciplined capital allocation." The much-anticipated reorganization is expected by the end of the year.

But the market is not fooled. As Morningstar sums it up: "We had hoped that Assassin's Creed Shadows would enable Ubisoft to turn around its financial results in 2026 after a recent period of weakness. However, the company's outlook appears to undermine this possibility." At Barclays, Nick Dempsey is even more blunt: "Another year of burning cash." He adds: "They have high hopes for the years ahead, but investors will only believe in the cash flow when they see it."

In an attempt to keep its meager promises, the group is counting on a paid extension for AC Shadows, a new Rainbow Six game called "Siege X," the release of Anno 117, and the remake of Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time. Frédérick Duguet, the CFO, also mentioned "a few other titles to be announced at a later date," including a "mobile game based on one of our flagship franchises with strong potential in Asia." Behind the teaser, it's hard not to think of Assassin's Creed Jade, the mobile game already unveiled, set during the unification of China under the Qin dynasty.

Questions remain

Remaining optimistic about Ubisoft is now a feat in itself. Analysts made this clear when they downgraded the stock after this disappointing publication and a lackluster conference call. Beyond the roadmap ahead, questions focused on the new subsidiary, 25%-owned by Tencent, announced for the end of the year.

And here again, it's all very vague. No concrete information has been provided on how it will operate or the value it could create for shareholders. The move, which was supposed to reassure investors, has ended up causing even more concern. Ubisoft is promising a new organization, a new era, and a new momentum. In the meantime, Ubisoft will have to spend another year galvanizing the hopes of the most optimistic.