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    UCG   IT0005239360


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Morgan Stanley recommends buying Italian assets ahead of budget

09/10/2018 | 05:29am EDT

MILAN (Reuters) - Investment bank Morgan Stanley recommends tactically buying Italian bonds and stocks ahead of the country's budget announcement, which it reckons will aim for a deficit well below the EU threshold of 3 percent of gross domestic product.

"While the macro outlook remains challenging in the medium term, a middle-ground fiscal expansion is likely to come as a relief to markets," analysts at the U.S. bank said in a note on Monday.

Morgan Stanley reckons the budget, due to be announced on Sept 27, will target a deficit of around 2.2 percent.

The bank acknowledged Italian debt remained vulnerable to shocks and described itself as cautious on the long-term structural demand for BTPs, as Italian government bonds are known.

But "with possible near-term upside we recommend investors to position via a tactical long in 10y BTP versus Bono," it added, referring to Spanish government bonds.

Morgan Stanley also sees Italian stocks as too cheap relative to bond spreads, and said base case forecasts suggested a 12 percent re-rating potential for MSCI's Italy equity index.

It said it was overweight on banks Mediobanca and UniCredit and saw value in Intesa Sanpaolo shares at current levels.

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni; editing by Sujata Rao)

© Reuters 2018
Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
BASE CO., LTD. 1.75% 4935 End-of-day quote.-19.76%
BASE, INC. -3.36% 1525 End-of-day quote.-21.88%
INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A. 1.53% 2.285 Delayed Quote.19.47%
MEDIOBANCA S.P.A. 0.65% 9.92 Delayed Quote.31.57%
MORGAN STANLEY -1.07% 94.55 Delayed Quote.37.97%
MSCI ITALY (STRD) 0.91% 302.894 Real-time Quote.6.25%
MSCI ITALY (STRD) 1.18% 257.529566 Real-time Quote.10.25%
UNICREDIT S.P.A. 1.78% 9.655 Delayed Quote.26.24%
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Sales 2021 17 301 M 20 360 M 20 360 M
Net income 2021 2 289 M 2 693 M 2 693 M
Net Debt 2021 - - -
P/E ratio 2021 9,06x
Yield 2021 4,28%
Capitalization 21 493 M 25 283 M 25 293 M
Capi. / Sales 2021 1,24x
Capi. / Sales 2022 1,23x
Nbr of Employees 82 003
Free-Float 87,6%
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Technical analysis trends UNICREDIT S.P.A.
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Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 26
Last Close Price 9,66 €
Average target price 11,07 €
Spread / Average Target 14,7%
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Andrea Orcel Chief Executive Officer
Stefano Porro Group Chief Financial Officer
Pietro Carlo Padoan Chairman
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