Press Release
Vale informs on estimates update
Rio de Janeiro, December 7th, 2022 - Vale S.A. ("Vale") informs that it has updated its estimates and that these must be considered as such:
Estimated production volumes
Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2026 | 2030+ |
Iron ore (Mt) | ~310 | 310-320 | 340-360 | >360 |
Pellets & briquettes (Mt) | ~33 | 36-40 | 50-55 | ~100 |
Nickel (kt) | ~180 | 160-175 | 230-245¹ | >300² |
Copper (kt) | ~260 | 335-370 | 390-420 | ~900 |
¹Including | indirect | expos ur e | to total | nickel | sourced | from | PTVI | mines | for | Bahodopi | and | Pomalaa. | |||||||||||||||||||
²Including | indirect | expos ur e | to total | nickel | sourced | from | PTVI | mines | for | Bahodopi, | Pomalaa and Sorowak o HPAL. | ||||||||||||||||||||
All-in components | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2026 | 2030+ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Iron ore Premiums¹ (US$/t) | ~7 | ~8 | 8 - 12 | 18 - 25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Iron ore C1 cash cost - ex 3rd party purchase² | 19.5 - 20 | 20 - 21 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(US$/t) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Iron ore All-in costs3 (US$/t) | 49 | 47 | 42 | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Nickel All-in costs4 (US$/t) | 13,000 | 13,000 | 10,000 | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Copper All-in costs5 (US$/t) | 4,000 | 3,200 | 2,600 | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
¹ Including | iron ore fines quality adjustm ent | and iron | ore | fines pellet | adjustment. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
² 2022 BRL/USD | exchang e | rate | of | 5.16 | and | 2023 | BRL/USD | exchang e | rate of | 5.20. | In 2023 | includes tailing | filtrati on plants | ramp-up, | health | & safety, dam | managem e nt , | ||||||||||||||
geotechnic s, risk and | sustainability | costs. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 Approxi m at el y | all -in | costs | after | by-product s | before | sustaining | investment. | Decreas e | in next | years | consider s | higher | premium s | and share of | agglomer at ed | products, lower | |||||||||||||||
bunker costs, | higher volumes, and | fixed cost | dilution. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 Approxim at el y | all -in | costs | after | by-products | before | sustaining | investment. | Decreas e | in next | years | consider s | higher | volume | of premium | materials | in the mix | including | by - | |||||||||||||
product s, | and | fixed cost dilution | (VBME and | CCM 1 | ramp-up), | Onça | Puma | 2nd Furnac e. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
5 Approxi m at el y | all -in | costs | after | by-products | before | sustaining | investment. | Decreas e | in next | years | consider s | higher | volumes | and fixed | cost dilution, | Salobo | 3 | ramp-up | and | ||||||||||||
producti vity | improvem ent s. |
Potential contribution of EBITDA generated by higher Iron ore premiums and volumes
In Ferrous business, higher iron ore all-in premium and volumes could potentially contribute with US$ 4 billion EBITDA by 2026, based on 3Q22 Iron Ore EBITDA margin of approximately US$ 50/t and expected iron ore volumes of approximately 310Mt in 2022.
Mineral exploration R&D expenses
Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||||
Exploration (US$ million) | ~170 | ~180 | ~250 | ~300 | ~350 | ||||
Capital expenditure (US$ billion) | |||||||||
Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024-2027 | ||||||
(average per year) | |||||||||
CAPEX (US$ billion) | ~5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 - 6.5 |
Press Release
Brumadinho & Mariana commitments (US$ billion)¹
Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027+ |
Decharacterization (US$ billion) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.44 |
Brumadinho agreements² (US$ billion) | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
Incurred expenses (US$ billion) | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.35 |
Samarco & Renova³ (US$ billion) | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.16 |
Total (US$ billion) | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
1 | Amounts | stated | include | inflation adjustment s, net of | judicial deposits and | without discount | to present value, | consideri ng averag e BRL/USD exchang e rate of 5.4066. | ||
2 | Includes | Integral | Reparati on Agreem ent, | individual, | labor and emergenc y | indemnific ati ons, | tailing remov al | and containm ent works. | ||
3 | Includes | Germano | dam | dechar act eriz ati on | provision. | |||||
4 | Related | to 2027- 2035. | ||||||||
5 | Related | to 2027. | ||||||||
6 | Mainly | related | to | 2027. |
Free cash flow
Vale's 2026 free cash flow sensitivity ranging from US$ 5.7 billion to US$ 12.4 billion, depending on the following assumptions: (i) annual average iron ore pricing ranging from US$ 90/dmt to US$ 110/dmt; (ii) annual average nickel price (LME) ranging from US$ 7,500/t to US$ 10,500/t; (iii) annual average copper price (LME) ranging from US$/t 20,000/t to US$ 24,000/t.
Vale informs that it has discontinued all previous guidance.
Vale clarifies that the information provided in this document represent only an expectation, hypothetical data that by no means constitute a promise of performance by Vale and/or its management. The estimates presented involve market factors that are beyond Vale's control and, therefore, can be subject to new changes. Additionally, Vale informs that will file again in due course t he item 11 of its Reference Form, in the period required by the Resolution CVM number 80.
Gustavo Duarte Pimenta
Executive Officer of Investor Relations
For further information, please contact:
Vale.RI@vale.com
Ivan Fadel: ivan.fadel@vale.com
Mariana Rocha: mariana.rocha@vale.com
Samir Bassil: samir.bassil@vale.com
This press release may include statements that present Vale's expectations about future events or results. All statements, wh en based upon expectations about the future, involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy;
- the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and in particular the factors discussed under "Forward-Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in Vale's annual report on Form 20-F.
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Vale SA published this content on 07 December 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 07 December 2022 12:21:06 UTC.