Oddo BHF has downgraded its Worldline shares from 'neutral' to 'underperform' with a target price halved from €5 to €2.5.

The analyst justifies this change by citing the serious controversy revealed by the EIC network concerning large-scale suspicious transactions involving e-commerce players in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands.

The broker emphasizes that while Worldline has responded by strengthening its control mechanisms and terminating certain risky contracts, "the reputational risk remains significant in a sector where trust is paramount."

The broker also notes that the outlook for the first half of the year has been revised downward, with organic revenue expected to decline by 3.5% in Q2, while EBITDA for the half-year could fall by 19% to €414m, impacted by unfavorable mix effects and lower volumes.

According to the note, these factors justify a significant upward revision of the risk premium in their model, accompanied by an average decline of 6% in estimated EBITDA for 2025-2027.


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