3rdQUARTER 2019
EARNINGS WEBCAST
NOVEMBER 8TH, 2019
IMPORTANT NOTICE
Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management, including statements with respect to YPF's future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and reserves, as well as YPF's plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF's control or may be difficult to predict.
YPF's actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results, changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative, tax, legal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in "Item 3. Key Information-Risk Factors" and "Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects" in YPF's Annual Report on Form 20- F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur.
Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.
These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities of YPF S.A. in any jurisdiction. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or an exemption from such registration.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to separately disclose proved, probable and possible reserves that a company has determined in accordance with the SEC rules. We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources, that the SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No. 1-12102 available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
Our estimates of EURs, included in our Development Costs, are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and accordingly are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized, particularly in areas or zones where there has been limited history. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from our concessions will differ substantially. Ultimate recoveries will be dependent upon numerous factors including actual encountered geological conditions and the impact of future oil and gas pricing.
Unless otherwise indicated, the calculation of the main financial figures in U.S. dollars is derived from the calculation of the consolidated financial results expressed in Argentine pesos using the average exchange rate for each period. For Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2019, the calculation of the main financial figures in U.S. dollars is derived from the sum of: (1) YPF S.A. individual financial results expressed in Argentine pesos divided by the average exchange rate of the period and (2) the financial results of YPF S.A.'s subsidiaries expressed in Argentine pesos divided by the exchange rate at the end of period.
2
THE ARGENTINE CONTEXT
Political uncertainty between general and primary elections
Devaluation of peso
Weak economic activity
Freeze on crude and fuel prices
Continued deterioration of natural gas prices
3
SAFETY AND SUSTAINABILITY ARE EMBEDDED IN OUR DAILY ACTIVITY AND CORPORATE STRATEGY
TOTAL IFR
- of people injured for each million hours worked 2009 - 9M 2019
1.89
1.27
1.05 | 1.05 |
0.82 | 0.91 |
0.72 | 0.74 |
0.60 |
0.51 0.45
2018 Sustainability Reportpublished
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 9M |
2019 |
4
Main
figures
-
Adjusted EBITDA =Operating income + Depreciation and impairment of property,
plant and equipment + Depreciation of right-of-use assets + Amortization of intangible assets +
3rdQUARTER 2019
Revenuesof USD 3,309 million (-12.6%)
Adjusted EBITDA(1)of USD 977 million (-15.0%)
Operating cash flowof USD 1,196 million (+18.9%)
CAPEXof USD 810 million (-4.8%)
Hydrocarbon production flat at 530 Kboe/d
Net shale oil production up 54.9%
unproductive exploratory drillings. Excludes IFRS 16 and IAS 29 effects. | 5 |
ADJ. EBITDA DECREASED IN Q3 2019 IN USD MAINLY AFFECTED BY THE UPSTREAM SEGMENT
ADJUSTED EBITDA
(In Millions of USD)
114 | ||||||||||
1,150 | 118 | -60 | ||||||||
754 | ||||||||||
977 | ||||||||||
-345 | ||||||||||
396 | ||||||||||
200 | ||||||||||
-777 | ||||||||||
Operating | Non-cash | (1) | Adj. EBITDA Q3 | Downstream | Corporate & | G & E | Upstream | Adj. EBITDA Q3 | Non-cash | Operating |
Income Q3 2018 | expenses | 2018 | Eliminations | 2019 | expenses(1) | Income Q3 2019 | ||||
before | ||||||||||
impairment |
(1) | Includes principally depreciation of property, plant and equipment, depreciation of right-of-use assets and amortization of intangible assets and unproductive exploratory drillings. | 6 |
FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE: FUNDING CAPEX WITH INTERNAL CASH FLOW GENERATION
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF ADJUSTED CASH FLOW (1)
(In Millions of USD)
1,196
1,587 | -804 | |||||
-418 | 1,042 | |||||
-243 | -276 | |||||
Cash & | Cash flow | Capex | Net borrowing | Interest | Others | Cash & |
equivalents at | from | payments | equivalents at |
the begining of | operations | the end of Q3 | |
Q3 2019 | 2019 |
- Cash and equivalents at the beginning of Q3 2019 were converted to USD using the June 30, 2019 exchange rate of Ps 42.36 to U.S $1.00. Cash and equivalents at the end of Q3 2019 were converted to USD using the September 30, 2019 exchange rate of Ps 57.49 to U.S $1.00.
CUMULATIVE FREE CASH FLOW (2)
(In Millions of USD)
526 | ||
310 | ||
135 | ||
3M 2019 | 6M 2019 | 9M 2019 |
(2) Free Cash Flow = Cash Flow from Operations minus CAPEX - M&A.
7
FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE: SUCCESFULLY MANAGING OUR SHORT TERM MATURITIES
PRINCIPAL DEBT AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE (1) (2)
(In Millions of USD)
Bonds | 2,263 | ||||||||||
Trade financing | |||||||||||
Bank loans | 1,436 | 1,495 | |||||||||
1,180 | |||||||||||
1,042 | |||||||||||
714 | 624 | ||||||||||
356 | 484 | ||||||||||
Cash & (3)2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026+ | ||||
Equivalents |
- As of September 30, 2019. Excludes IFRS 16 effects.
- Converted to USD using the September 30, 2019 exchange rate of Ps 57.49 to U.S $1.00.
- Includes cash & equivalents, including Argentine sovereign bonds BONAR 2020 and BONAR 2021.
- Net debt is calculated as total debt less cash & equivalents. Net debt to LTM Adj. EBITDA calculated in USD. Net debt at period end exchange rate of Ps 57.49 to U.S $1.00 and LTM Adj. EBITDA calculated as sum of quarters.
DETAILS OF Q3 2019
~90%of our cash & debt denominated in USD
Average interest rates of 7.6%in USD
and 55.8%in Pesos
Average life of 6.23years
Net Debt /LTM Adj.
EBITDA 1.98x(3)(4)
8
TOTAL HYDROCARBON PRODUCTION REMAINED STABLE DRIVEN BY SHALE GROWTH
TOTAL PRODUCTION | NGL | PRODUCTION BREAKDOWN | Conventionals | ||
Natural Gas | |||||
(KBOE/D) | (KBOE/D) | Shale + Tight | |||
0.2% | Crude Oil | |
529.1 | +5.9% | 530.0 | 529.1 | 44.4 | 530.0 | ||
-35.4 | -8.1 | ||||||
28% | 35% | ||||||
-0.1% | |||||||
+2.8% | |||||||
QoQ | |||||||
72% | 65% | ||||||
-0.2% | |||||||
Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2018 | Shale | Conventionals | Tight | Q3 2019 | |
9
RAMP-UP IN SHALE ACTIVITY BROUGHT PRODUCTION UP 77% YoY
NET SHALE O&G PRODUCTION
(KBOE/D)
NGL | |||
+77.1% | Natural Gas | ||
102.1 | Crude Oil | ||
57.7 | +24.7% | |
+100.6% | QoQ | |
+54.9% | ||
Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 |
NEW WELLS | 32 | ACTIVE | 18 |
IN Q3 2019 | RIGS |
AVERAGE CUMULATIVE OIL PRODUCTION
(KBBL; STANDARDIZED AT 2,000 meters)
350 | 2 wells | |
300 | ||
250 | 8 wells | 37 wells |
11 wells | ||
200 | 20 wells | |
150 | 2 wells | |
100
1 well
50
0
0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 24 | |
Months | |||||
LaCh Avg. Campaign 2019 | LaCh Avg. Campaign 2018 | ||||
LC Avg. Campaign 2019 | LC Avg. Campaign 2018 | ||||
BS Avg. Campaign 2018 | BdT Avg. Campaign 2019 | 10 | |||
LajE.x-1 Campaign 2019
LOMA CAMPANA: CONTINUOUS COSTS IMPROVEMENT; SWITCHING TO HDC
DEVELOPMENT & OPEX COST
(USD/BOE)
18 | 15 | Development | Opex | ||||||||||||
12 | 9 | 11 | ~10 | ||||||||||||
6 | ~5 | ||||||||||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 9M 2019 | ||||||||||||
SHALE OIL STAGES & WELLS HORIZONTAL LENGTH | |||||||||||||||
55 | Avg. frac stages | Avg. lateral length (m) | 3.000 | ||||||||||||
~2,300 | ~2,400 | ~2,500 | ~2,500 | ||||||||||||
50 | 2.500 | ||||||||||||||
~1,800 | |||||||||||||||
45 | |||||||||||||||
38 | |||||||||||||||
40 | 35 | 2.000 | |||||||||||||
35 | 30 | ||||||||||||||
27 | 1.500 | ||||||||||||||
30 | 21 | ||||||||||||||
25 | 1.000 | ||||||||||||||
20 | 500 | ||||||||||||||
15 | |||||||||||||||
10 | - | ||||||||||||||
2017 | 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 | |||||||||||
DRILLING COST
(USD/lateral foot)
628
606
583
545
524
2017 | 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 |
COMPLETION COST
(KUSD/stage)
254
188 | 170 | 154 | |
144 | |||
2017 | 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 |
11
STRONG NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION DUE TO SEASONAL DEMAND; ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER PRICES
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
(MM3/D)
43.7 44.0 43.743.6
40.1
36.8
34.7
6.1 | 7.7 | |||||
1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | ||
Q1 2018 | Q2 2018 | Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 |
NG Production | NG Production Curtailments |
GAS REALIZATION PRICE
(USD/MMBTU)
4.5 | Avg. | |
Sep | ||
4.0 | 3.5 | |
Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 |
Disco Industry Genco Exports Subsidy
12
INCREASED PROCESSED VOLUMES AND EXPORTS AMID LOWER INTERNAL DEMAND
CRUDE PROCESSED | SALES OF REFINED PRODUCTS | ||
(KBBL/D) | (KM 3) | ||
+2.6% | -0.4% | ||
4,493 | +23.9% | 4,474 | |
287.4 | |||
280.2 | |||
-1.8%
-5.6%
Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 | Q3 2018 | Q3 2019 |
Exports
Others
GLP
Fuel Oil
JP1
Gasoline
Diesel
13
RECOVERY IN DOWNSTREAM MARGIN; FREEZE IN PRICES WIDENED GAP WITH IMPORT PARITY
DOWNSTREAM ADJUSTED EBITDA(1) (2) | FUELS BLENDED PRICE VS IMPORT PARITY(3) |
Excluding inventory revaluation | (% VARIATION) |
(USD per refined barrel) | |
12.1 | 11.2 |
10.4 | |
Fuels Blended Price | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Import Parity | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2017 | 2018 | 9M 2019 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(1) | Amounts in Argentine Pesos converted to USD using the applicable FX rate on the date in which | (3) Import parity includes international reference price for heating oil, RBOB and biofuels, each of | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
revenues and expenses were recognized. Please note that these figures may differ from the EBITDA | them weighted by sales volumes of our regular and premium diesel and gasoline. Fuels | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
expressed in USD that is disclosed in table 5.5 of YPF's Quarterly Consolidated Results report. | blended prices and Import Parity prices based on monthly average prices. (*) October and | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(2) | Net of commissions, deductions, freights, turnover tax and other taxes. | November 2019: preliminary data. January 2018 = base 0. | 14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CURRENT PRICES AT THE PUMP AT LOW HISTORICAL LEVELS
FUELS BLENDED PRICE AT THE PUMP (1)
(USD/liter) |
1,5 |
1,4 |
1,3 |
1,2 |
1,1 |
1,0 |
0,9 |
0,8 |
0,7 |
(1) Weighted by sales volumes of our regular and premium diesel and gasoline.
(*) October and November 2019 prices are preliminary. November 2019 prices as of November 1st2019.
15
SUMMARY
Focus on financial discipline
Unconventional production growth compensating conventional production decline
Transition of natural gas market
Challenging fuel pricing scenario
Active portfolio management
• | Adjusted EBITDA $3.7bn | |
2019 | • | CAPEX $3.2bn |
Guidance | ||
• | Production -3% area | |
Update | ||
• | Net Leverage 2.15x area |
16
3rdQuarter Earnings Webcast
QUESTIONS
AND ANSWERS
17
Attachments
- Original document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
YPF SA published this content on 08 November 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 08 November 2019 14:49:04 UTC