FULL YEAR & 4th QUARTER 2019
EARNINGS WEBCAST
MARCH 6TH, 2020
IMPORTANT NOTICE
Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management, including statements with respect to YPF's future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and reserves, as well as YPF's plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF's control or may be difficult to predict.
YPF's actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results, changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative, tax, legal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in "Item 3. Key Information-Risk Factors" and "Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects" in YPF's Annual Report on Form 20- F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur.
Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.
These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities of YPF S.A. in any jurisdiction. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or an exemption from such registration.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to separately disclose proved, probable and possible reserves that a company has determined in accordance with the SEC rules. We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources, that the SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No. 1-12102 available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
Our estimates of EURs, included in our Development Costs, are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and accordingly are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized, particularly in areas or zones where there has been limited history. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from our concessions will differ substantially. Ultimate recoveries will be dependent upon numerous factors including actual encountered geological conditions and the impact of future oil and gas pricing.
Unless otherwise indicated, the calculation of the main financial figures in U.S. dollars is derived from the calculation of the consolidated financial results expressed in Argentine pesos using the average exchange rate for each period. For Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2019, the calculation of the main financial figures in U.S. dollars is derived from the sum of: (1) YPF S.A. individual financial results expressed in Argentine pesos divided by the average exchange rate of the period and (2) the financial results of YPF S.A.'s subsidiaries expressed in Argentine pesos divided by the exchange rate at the end of period.
2
2019 HIGHLIGHTS
CONTEXT
Weak economic activity and high inflation
Crude oil price volatility + freeze on local prices
Low natural gas prices
Capital controls
Presidential elections
& government transition
YPF PERFORMANCE
FY Revenues of
USD 13.7 BN (-11.5%)
FY Adj. EBITDA(1)(2)
of USD 3.6 BN (-18.2%)
FY Adj. Operating cash flow(2) of USD 4.3 BN (-0.5%)
FY CAPEX of
USD 3.5 BN (+5.2%)
Natural Gas impairment of
USD 540 MM in Q3 2019
- Adjusted EBITDA = Operating income + Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
- Depreciation of the right of use assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings + (Recovery) / Deterioration of property, plant and equipment
(2) Excludes IFRS 16 and IAS 29 effects. | 3 |
2019 HIGHLIGHTS
Shifted focus from natural gas to oil
Accelerated shale oil production reducing break-even prices
Deployed first stage of EOR development
Gas exports to Chile and FLNG
FID of underground gas storage
Active portfolio management
Strong cash generation
Successfully managed short term maturities
4
SAFETY AND SUSTAINABILITY IS A CORE VALUE IN CORPORATE STRATEGY
ESG 2019
HIGHLIGHTS
IFR(1) decreased to 0.44
On track with 10% CO2 emissions intensity reduction by 2023
IMO 2020 compliant
First wind farm in operation
and additional three under construction
First Diversity Report
Included in BYMA's Corporate Governance Panel and BYMA's Sustainability Index
DOW JONES SUSTAINABILITY INDEX(2)
Oil & Gas Upstream & Integrated Industry
YPF score by RobecoSAM | DJSI OGX Industry Average |
100 | ||||
TOP 15 IN THE INDUSTRY | ||||
90 | ||||
80 | ||||
70 | 66 | |||
60 | ||||
50 | 46 | |||
44 | ||||
40 | ||||
42 | 42 | |||
30 | ||||
20 | ||||
10 | 9 | |||
0 | ||||
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||
- YPF is not part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. YPF was assessed by RobecoSAM for the first time in 2018 using the DJSI criteria.
(1) # of people injured for each million hours worked
5
RESERVE REPLACEMENT SUPPORTED BY SHALE DEVELOPMENTS
Reserve | Shale representing |
Replacement | 31% of total reserves; |
Ratio 96% | (vs. 19% in 2018) |
EVOLUTION HYDROCARBON PROVED RESERVES | 2019 PROVED RESERVES |
(MBOE) | ||||||
Natural Gas | ||||||
1,080 | 170 | 1,073 | 37% | |||
14 | -3 | |||||
-188 | ||||||
Reserves | Production | Conventional | Shale | Divestments | Reserves | Crude oil + NGL |
63% | ||||||
2018 | 2019 |
6
RAMP-UP IN SHALE ACTIVITY; ACCOUNTING FOR 18% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION
TOTAL PRODUCTION | NGL | |
Natural Gas | ||
(KBOE/D) | ||
Crude Oil | ||
-3.0%
530.2 -0.7% 514.4
-5.5%
-0.5%
20182019
NET SHALE O&G PRODUCTION | |
(KBOE/D) | +71.9% |
111.8 | |
102.6 | |
81.9 | |
72.1 | |
65.0 |
Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q4 2019 | ||||||
Crude Oil | Natural Gas | NGL | ||||||||
NEW WELLS | NEW WELLS | ACTIVE RIGS | ||||||||
IN Q4 2019 | IN 2019 | Dec-19 | ||||||||
31 | 123 | 16 |
7
WORLD CLASS SHALE OIL PRODUCTIVITY; OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER COST REDUCTIONS
Loma Campana (LC)
Bakken
La Amarga Chica (LACH)
Bandurria Sur South East (BS SE)
USA plays(1)
LACH | VS. | |||||||
Stack | ||||||||
BS SE | ||||||||
Bone Spring | Wolfcamp Midland | |||||||
LC
Woodbine
Wolfcamp Delaware
Eagleford
PRODUCTIVITY | Oil window wells(2) | |||||||
51.5 | 51.0 | 50.9 | (KBOE/100M stimulated lateral) | |||||
49.8 | ||||||||
41.2 | ||||||||
35.0 | 35.0 | 33.0 | ||||||
22.0 | 19.0 | |||||||
13.0 | 9.0 | |||||||
DEVELOPMENT COST Oil window wells(2)
(USD/BOE) | 20.8 |
16.5 | 16.9 | ||||||
14.0 | |||||||
11.0 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 12.2 | |||
9.4 | |||||||
8.1 | |||||||
(1) Selected key plays in USA, data of 2018 | ||
8 | ||
(2) The chart includes only oil wells. Oil wells are defined as wells that in the first 6 months of production have GORs ranging from 0-260 m3/m3 | (0 - 1,460 scf/bbl) USA data was provided by IHS Markit | |
BANDURRIA SUR: EXAMPLE OF VALUE CREATION
ADCH
LACH
o | ||
o | ||
o | ||
o o | ||
o o o | ||
LC |
Bandurria Sur area o Producing pads
AREA KEY FACTS
Surface Area
56,229 acres / 227,55 km2
License term
35 years since July 2015
Committed investments
USD 360 MM (18 wells) due July 2020, already fulfilled
Operator
YPF
SELECTED VACA MUERTA TRANSACTIONS (USD/acre)
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
Loma | La Amarga | Bajada | Bandurría | Bajo | Aguada | Bandurría | Bandurría | |||||||
Campana | Chica | de Añelo | Sur | del Toro | del Chañar | Sur | Sur | |||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2017 | 2017 | 2017 | 2019 | 2020 | 2020 |
BUYER
SELLER
STAKE ACQ. | 50% | 50% | 50% | 49% | 50% | 100% 24.5% each 5.5% each |
9
2020: FOCUS ON ACCELERATING SHALE OIL DEVELOPMENTS FROM CORE HUB
LOMA CAMPANA
LA AMARGA CHICA
BANDURRIA SUR
NEW WELLS | GROSS PRODUCTION | GROSS CAPEX | |
IN 2020E | Dec-2020E | 2020E | RIGS |
101 | ~155 KBOE/D | ~1.8 BN USD | 11 |
FULL FIELD | LOMA CAMPANA | LA AMARGA CHICA | BANDURRIA SUR | ||||||
DEVELOPMENTS | |||||||||
OIL PRODUCTION | |||||||||
(KBBL/D) | |||||||||
75 | 75 | 75 | |||||||
0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 |
10
TERTIARY RECOVERY (EOR) DEVELOPMENTS AFTER PROMISING PILOT RESULTS | |||||||
1500 | |||||||
GRIMBEEK | 2019 EOR ACTIVITY | ||||||
EXPANSION | Beginning | PIU | |||||
(BBL/D) | |||||||
of response | 10 | ||||||
INVESTMENT | |||||||
500 | USD 150 MM | ||||||
Aug-19 | Oct-19 | Dec-19 | Feb-20 | ||||
POLYMER INJECTION | FULL EOR POTENTIAL | EXPECTED | |||||
INCREMENTAL | |||||||
UNITS IN OPERATION | (BBL/D) | PRODUCTION | |||||
(BBL/D) | Actual Units | 29 MM bbl | |||||
Full Potential | |||||||
Grimbeek | |||||||
Desfiladero Bayo | |||||||
Los Perales | |||||||
100.000 | |||||||
4500 | |||||||
0 | 0 | ||||||
2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 |
11
NATURAL GAS: LOWER-PRICE ENVIRONMENT PARTIALLY OFFSET BY LOWER CURTAILMENTS
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
(MM3/D)
43.7 | 44.0 | 43.7 | 43.6 | |
40.1 | 40.3 | |||
36.8 | 34.7 | |||
6.1 7.7
1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | ||
Q1 2018 | Q2 2018 | Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q4 2019 |
NG Production | NG Production Curtailments |
2019 SALES VOLUME MIX
INDUSTRY32%
DISCO36%
GENCO27%
EXPORTS4%
CNG1%
GAS REALIZATION PRICE
(USD/MMBTU)
4.5
3.7
Disco
Industry
Genco
Exports
CNG
Subsidy
20182019
12
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEMAND OF FUELS; PRICES BELOW IMPORT PARITY
SALES OF REFINED PRODUCTS
(KM 3)
-1.4%
18,03217,783
+7.4%
-1.4%
-2.1%
20182019
GAP FUELS BLENDED PRICE | |
VS IMPORT PARITY(1) | |
(% Difference) | |
15% | |
Exports | 0% |
Others | |
GLP | -15% |
Fuel Oil | |
JP1 | |
Gasoline | |
Diesel |
- Import parity includes international reference price for heating oil, RBOB and biofuels, each of them weighted by YPF sales volumes of regular and premium diesel and gasoline. February 2020 : preliminary data
13
YPF LUZ: VALUE CREATION TO YPF SHAREHOLDERS
INSTALLED CAPACITY (1) | 2,456 |
(MW) | +35% |
1,8191,819
Installed capacity
COD
201820192020E
ADJUSTED EBITDA | +21% | ~265 |
(In Millions of USD) | +18% | 219 | |
186 | |||
2018 | 2019 | 2020E |
- Includes YPF LUZ 30.76% stake in Central Dock Sud S.A and 50% participation in Luz de León S.A (Cañadón León wind farm project)
Projects under construction already funded
~80% of revenues with long-term contracts
Renewable energy representing 16% total capacity by end of 2020
No funding from YPF
14
Q4 2019 RESULTS AFFECTED BY FREEZE IN PRICES; INCREASE IN PRODUCTION
REVENUES | 3,939 | -12.5% | ADJUSTED | 957 | -31.1% | |
(In Millions of USD) | EBITDA | |||||
3,447 | ||||||
(In Millions of USD) | 660 | |||||
Q4 2018Q4 2019Q4 2018Q4 2019
CAPEX | +7.1% | 981 | PRODUCTION | +5.4% | 525 |
(In Millions of USD) | (KBOE/D) | ||||
916 | 498 | ||||
Q4 2018 | Q4 2019 | Q4 2018 | Q4 2019 |
15
FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE: CASH PRESERVATION STRATEGY
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF ADJUSTED CASH FLOW (1) (2)
(In Millions of USD)
4,510 81
1,515 | -3,454 | ||||||||||||||
1,246 | |||||||||||||||
-864 | |||||||||||||||
-543 | |||||||||||||||
Cash & | Cash flow from Net borrowing Capex | Interest | Others | Cash & | |||||||||||
equivalents at | operations | payments | equivalents at | ||||||||||||
the begining of | the end of | ||||||||||||||
2019 | 2019 |
- Cash and equivalents at the beginning of 2019 were converted to USD using the December 31, 2018 exchange rate of Ps 37.60 to U.S $1.00. Cash and equivalents at the end of 2019 were converted to USD using the December 31, 2019 exchange rate of Ps 59.79 to U.S $1.00.
- 2019 capex includes USD 199mn from M&A activities
CUMULATIVE FREE CASH FLOW (3)
(In Millions of USD)
1,311
1,056
748
-875
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
(3) Free Cash Flow = Cash Flow from Operations minus CAPEX minus M&A.
16
MANAGING SHORT-TERM MATURITIES
PRINCIPAL DEBT AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE (1) (2)
(In Millions of USD)
1,557 | 1,497 |
1,436 |
1,246
711
625
484
Bonds
Trade financing
Bank loans
1,256
1,010
~90% of debt & ~80% of cash in USD (5)
Average interest rates of 7.6% in USD
and 51.1% in Pesos (5)
Average life of 6.04 years(5)
Net Debt /LTM Adj.
EBITDA 2.1x (3)(4)
Cash & | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028+ |
Equivalents (3) |
- As of December 31, 2019. Excludes IFRS 16 effects.
- Converted to USD using the December 31, 2019 exchange rate of Ps 59.79 to U.S $1.00.
- Includes cash & equivalents, including Argentine sovereign bonds BONAR 2020 and BONAR 2021.
- Net debt is calculated as total debt less cash & equivalents. Net debt to LTM Adj. EBITDA calculated in USD. Net debt at period end exchange rate of Ps 59.79 to U.S $1.00 and LTM Adj. EBITDA calculated as sum of quarters.
- Refers to YPF on a stand-alone basis
17
OUTLOOK 2020
Strict | Profitability | More focus | Active |
financial | over | on oil, less | portfolio |
discipline | growth | in gas | management |
2020 GUIDANCE
ADJUSTED EBITDA
$3 BN AREA
CAPEX
$2.8 BN AREA
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
+2% area
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
-8% area
NET DEBT
FLAT
18
Full year and 4th quarter earnings webcast
QUESTIONS
AND ANSWERS
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YPF SA published this content on 06 March 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 06 March 2020 16:47:12 UTC