The Vibes Are Off In The Treasurys Market

The Vibes Are Off In The Treasurys Market By Hardika Singh

Inflation and deficits are lifting government bond yields and jarring the stock market. Meanwhile, fundamentals suggest inflation should still be headed down, but the Federal Reserve isn't betting on that. And the Federal Trade Commission alleged that the ex-CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources attempted to collude with OPEC to coordinate and raise oil prices. Read on for this news and more.

Top News The Treasurys Market Is Getting Squeezed From All Sides

Pressure keeps building in the bond market . Stickier-than-expected inflation this year has boosted yields on U.S. debt enough to dent the stock-market rally. Soaring spending by Washington shows few signs of slowing. And the latest plan to finance it all promises a flood of Treasurys in the coming months that will need to find buyers.

Henderson's Take: Just How Strong Is U.S. Manufacturing? Trucks and Fuel Send a Troubling Message By Bob Henderson

Markets for trucks and the fuel used to power them are clouding the outlook for a U.S. manufacturing rebound .

Freight truck demand declined 2% in March, according to a report last week from the American Trucking Associations, after increasing 4% in February. Meanwhile, the price of wholesale diesel fuel has slid nearly 8% in the past two months, even while the cost of the crude oil used to make the trucking fuel has stayed roughly the same..

U.S. Economy Stalled Inflation Vexes the Fed. Is It Noise or a New Trend?

Explaining why underlying inflation fell steadily from its pandemic peak of over 5% in 2022 to under 3% at the end of last year is straightforward: improved supply, softer demand and well-anchored inflation expectations.

Explaining why it stalled in the first quarter is a lot harder. The fundamentals still look good: Supply and demand are coming back into balance, at least in the labor market, and inflation expectations have edged lower.

Financial Regulation FTC Says Ex-Pioneer CEO Tried to Collude With OPEC on Oil Prices

Former Pioneer Natural Resources Chief Executive Scott Sheffield attempted to collude with representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to coordinate production and raise oil prices, U.S. antitrust enforcers said.

"The FTC's complaint reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the U.S. and global oil markets and misreads the nature and intent of Mr. Sheffield's actions," Pioneer said Thursday. The company said it and Sheffield aren't taking any steps that would stop Exxon's acquisition.

Forward Guidance Friday (all times ET)

4:30 a.m.: S&P Global U.K. Services PMI for April

8:30 a.m.: U.S. employment report for April

10 a.m.: ISM Report on Business Services PMI for April

7:45 p.m.: Chicago Fed's Goolsbee speaks at Hoover Institution's Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track

Monday

4 a.m.: Eurozone services PMI for April

5 a.m.: EU producer-price index for March

12:50 p.m.: Richmond Fed's Barkin speaks to the Columbia, S.C., Rotary Club

Research Average U.S. Homebuyer Needs $116,000 Income for a Home

The national required household income to purchase the median priced home rises to $116,000, up $5,900 from a year ago, after accounting for the cost of tax and insurance, according to Realtor.com's April housing data. For hopeful buyers in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and San Jose, the household income required to buy the median-priced home is more than double the national figure. Boston and New York City also require a household income of more than $200,000. There were 16 metro areas that required a household income of less than $100,000. The most affordable by this measure were Pittsburgh with a household income of $67,000, and Detroit at $69,000. - Chris Wack

Basis Points The U.S. jobs market "will look materially weaker very soon, " Pantheon's Oliver Allen says in a note about weekly jobless claims, reported Thursday at 208,000. Economists have been bracing for larger jobless numbers due to tighter financial conditions. "That rise in claims ought to be materializing about now, given the typical lags," Allen said. - Paulo Trevisani Demand for U.S. grain exports has been a consistent problem for grain traders, who are concerned that major buyers like China are favoring crops out of Brazil and Argentina over those from the U.S. The recent strength in the U.S. dollar has made it more convenient for buyers to pick and choose shipments in cheaper currencies, keeping demand for U.S. agriculture lower. - Kirk Maltais Norway's central bank held its key policy rate at 4.5% and reiterated guidance that the rate is likely to stay at that level for some time, as high wage growth and a weak krone are keeping inflation elevated. - Dominic Chopping The eurozone's unemployment level held steady at a record low in March , a sign of the robustness of the bloc's jobs market that might keep European Central Bank policymakers on their toes amid concerns over sticky wage growth. - Ed Frankl About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ's global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Hardika Singh in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to [[e-mail]].

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-03-24 0716ET