Financials AVIC Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd.

Equities

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-05-27 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
18.4 ^CNY	-2.28%		-4.02%	-3.72%

Apr. 28	AVIC Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. Reports Earnings Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024	CI
Apr. 09	AVIC Heavy Machinery Forecasts 13% Rise in Q1 Profit	MT

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	9,551	23,492	53,097	45,774	28,107	27,260	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	9,551	23,492	53,097	45,774	28,107	27,260	27,260	27,260
P/E ratio	29.2 x	67.6 x	56.7 x	37.9 x	21.2 x	15.7 x	13.4 x	12 x
Yield	-	-	0.34%	0.53%	1.42%	1.74%	2.07%	2.55%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.6 x	3.51 x	6.04 x	4.33 x	2.66 x	2.26 x	1.95 x	1.72 x
EV / Revenue	1.6 x	3.51 x	6.04 x	4.33 x	2.66 x	2.26 x	1.95 x	1.72 x
EV / EBITDA	13.9 x	29.1 x	36.9 x	25.1 x	14.4 x	9.9 x	8.16 x	7.04 x
EV / FCF	-	-	59 x	-	-	14 x	32 x	20.7 x
FCF Yield	-	-	1.69%	-	-	7.14%	3.13%	4.83%
Price to Book	1.56 x	3.5 x	5.67 x	4.4 x	2.45 x	2.09 x	1.87 x	1.66 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,307,045	1,315,553	1,472,294	1,472,294	1,470,826	1,481,546	-	-
Reference price ²	7.307	17.86	36.06	31.09	19.11	18.40	18.40	18.40
Announcement Date	4/30/20	3/11/21	3/9/22	3/14/23	3/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	5,985	6,698	8,790	10,570	10,577	12,058	13,965	15,807
EBITDA ¹	684.9	807.2	1,440	1,822	1,955	2,754	3,340	3,872
EBIT ¹	400.5	516.9	1,140	1,536	1,598	1,912	2,300	2,717
Operating Margin	6.69%	7.72%	12.97%	14.54%	15.11%	15.86%	16.47%	17.19%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	408	513.6	1,144	1,534	1,605	1,914	2,302	2,717
Net income ¹	275.3	343.8	890.6	1,202	1,329	1,733	2,029	2,266
Net margin	4.6%	5.13%	10.13%	11.37%	12.56%	14.37%	14.53%	14.33%
EPS ²	0.2500	0.2643	0.6357	0.8200	0.9000	1.173	1.372	1.528
Free Cash Flow ¹	-	-	899.3	-	-	1,946	853	1,318
FCF margin	-	-	10.23%	-	-	16.14%	6.11%	8.34%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	62.46%	-	-	70.66%	25.54%	34.04%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	100.97%	-	-	112.32%	42.03%	58.18%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	0.1214	0.1650	0.2710	0.3200	0.3800	0.4700
Announcement Date	4/30/20	3/11/21	3/9/22	3/14/23	3/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	-	-	899	-	-	1,946	853	1,318
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	6.2%	5.47%	11.1%	12.2%	12%	13%	13.9%	14%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	-	-	5.04%	5.9%	-	8.2%	-	-
Assets ¹	-	-	17,676	20,385	-	21,129	-	-
Book Value Per Share ²	4.690	5.100	6.360	7.060	7.810	8.820	9.840	11.10
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.6000	0.5000	1.080	0.5300	0.4000	1.760	0.7400	3.200
Capex ¹	262	452	618	877	1,052	712	702	703
Capex / Sales	4.37%	6.75%	7.03%	8.3%	9.95%	5.9%	5.02%	4.45%
Announcement Date	4/30/20	3/11/21	3/9/22	3/14/23	3/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

D+

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

18.4 CNY

Average target price

24.83 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+34.95%

	1st Jan change	Capi.
AVIC HEAVY MACHINERY CO., LTD.	-3.72%	3.76B
JSW STEEL LIMITED	+2.52%	26.52B
BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO., LTD.	+17.88%	20.94B
JINDAL STEEL & POWER LIMITED	+38.83%	12.68B
CHINA STEEL CORPORATION	-10.37%	11.47B
CITIC PACIFIC SPECIAL STEEL GROUP CO., LTD	+8.90%	10.65B
INNER MONGOLIA BAOTOU STEEL UNION CO., LTD.	+6.16%	9.71B
BHARAT FORGE LIMITED	+26.57%	8.76B
TERNIUM S.A.	+0.64%	8.39B
JINDAL STAINLESS LIMITED	+24.38%	7.07B