Financials CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Equities

CF

US1252691001

Agricultural Chemicals

Real-time Estimate Cboe BZX Other stock markets 12:21:03 2024-05-14 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
74.21 ^USD	+0.61%		-0.97%	-6.59%

May. 13	Stifel Adjusts CF Industries Holdings' Price Target to $73 From $81	MT
May. 07	Piper Sandler Adjusts Price Target on CF Industries Holdings to $75 From $82, Keeps Underweight Rating	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	10,380	8,281	15,181	16,715	15,189	13,573	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	14,050	11,559	17,018	17,357	16,125	14,798	14,916	15,067
P/E ratio	21.4 x	26.3 x	16.7 x	5.2 x	10.1 x	12.9 x	14 x	14.8 x
Yield	2.51%	3.1%	1.7%	1.76%	-	2.58%	2.54%	2.44%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.26 x	2.01 x	2.32 x	1.49 x	2.29 x	2.31 x	2.28 x	2.27 x
EV / Revenue	3.06 x	2.8 x	2.6 x	1.55 x	2.43 x	2.52 x	2.5 x	2.52 x
EV / EBITDA	8.73 x	8.56 x	6.2 x	2.95 x	5.84 x	6.43 x	6.63 x	6.82 x
EV / FCF	12.8 x	12.5 x	7.21 x	5.1 x	7.14 x	8.53 x	9.51 x	14.4 x
FCF Yield	7.84%	7.98%	13.9%	19.6%	14%	11.7%	10.5%	6.97%
Price to Book	3.63 x	2.85 x	4.75 x	3.3 x	2.69 x	2.51 x	2.51 x	2.39 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	217,432	213,916	214,475	196,189	191,057	182,782	-	-
Reference price ²	47.74	38.71	70.78	85.20	79.50	74.26	74.26	74.26
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/17/21	2/15/22	2/15/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	4,590	4,124	6,538	11,186	6,631	5,873	5,962	5,982
EBITDA ¹	1,610	1,350	2,743	5,880	2,760	2,301	2,250	2,210
EBIT ¹	993	657	2,300	5,727	2,283	1,488	1,584	1,549
Operating Margin	21.63%	15.93%	35.18%	51.2%	34.43%	25.33%	26.57%	25.9%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	772	463	1,543	5,095	2,248	1,592	1,439	1,247
Net income ¹	493	317	917	3,346	1,525	1,076	878.3	834.6
Net margin	10.74%	7.69%	14.03%	29.91%	23%	18.31%	14.73%	13.95%
EPS ²	2.230	1.470	4.240	16.38	7.870	5.742	5.295	5.017
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,101	922	2,359	3,402	2,258	1,734	1,569	1,050
FCF margin	23.99%	22.36%	36.08%	30.41%	34.05%	29.52%	26.32%	17.55%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	68.39%	68.3%	86%	57.86%	81.81%	75.37%	69.73%	47.49%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	223.33%	290.85%	257.25%	101.67%	148.07%	161.21%	178.68%	125.77%
Dividend per Share ²	1.200	1.200	1.200	1.500	-	1.915	1.888	1.811
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/17/21	2/15/22	2/15/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	2,540	2,868	3,389	2,321	2,608	2,012	1,775	1,273	1,571	1,470	1,595	1,265	1,502	1,464	1,629
EBITDA ¹	1,258	1,648	1,953	983	1,296	866	857	445	592	459	706.8	491.2	603	597.7	675.5
EBIT ¹	1,199	1,631	1,936	907	1,261	768	736	317	462	274	510.7	255.3	424.9	510.9	-
Operating Margin	47.2%	56.87%	57.13%	39.08%	48.35%	38.17%	41.46%	24.9%	29.41%	18.64%	32.01%	20.19%	28.29%	34.9%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,085	1,452	1,696	693	1,254	819	740	253	436	300	569.7	284.4	395.8	422.5	463.7
Net income ¹	705	883	1,165	438	860	560	527	164	274	194	361.7	181.8	264.4	266.3	294.3
Net margin	27.76%	30.79%	34.38%	18.87%	32.98%	27.83%	29.69%	12.88%	17.44%	13.2%	22.67%	14.38%	17.61%	18.19%	18.07%
EPS ²	3.270	4.210	5.580	2.180	4.350	2.850	2.700	0.8500	1.440	1.030	2.049	1.003	1.555	1.557	1.816
Dividend per Share ²	0.3000	0.3000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	-	-	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.4667	0.4667
Announcement Date	2/15/22	5/4/22	8/1/22	11/2/22	2/15/23	5/1/23	8/2/23	11/1/23	2/14/24	5/1/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	3,670	3,278	1,837	642	936	1,224	1,342	1,494
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.28 x	2.428 x	0.6697 x	0.1092 x	0.3391 x	0.5321 x	0.5965 x	0.676 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,101	922	2,359	3,402	2,258	1,734	1,569	1,050
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	16.8%	10.9%	29.9%	81%	29%	16.2%	15%	14.1%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3.97%	2.62%	7.52%	26.1%	11.3%	7.51%	7.03%	7.78%
Assets ¹	12,417	12,097	12,199	12,844	13,499	14,320	12,498	10,721
Book Value Per Share ²	13.20	13.60	14.90	25.80	29.60	29.60	29.60	31.10
Cash Flow per Share ²	6.790	5.720	13.30	18.90	14.20	11.90	11.10	8.980
Capex ¹	404	309	514	453	499	547	611	698
Capex / Sales	8.8%	7.49%	7.86%	4.05%	7.53%	9.31%	10.25%	11.67%
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/17/21	2/15/22	2/15/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

74.26 USD

Average target price

83.27 USD

Spread / Average Target

+12.13%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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Fertilizer