2024 MACQUARIE CONFERENCE
May 2024
KEVIN GALLAGHER, MANAGING DIRECTOR AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
SYDNEY
2024 Macquarie Conference
Disclaimer and important notice
This presentation contains forward looking statements that are subject to risk factors associated with the oil and gas industry, and the carbon capture and storage and carbon emissions reduction technologies industries. It is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, but they may be affected by a range of variables which could cause actual results or trends to differ materially, including but not limited to: price fluctuations on any products we produce, store, trade or capture, actual demand, currency fluctuations, geotechnical factors, drilling and production results, gas commercialisation, development progress, operating results, engineering estimates, reserve estimates, loss of market, industry competition, environmental risks, carbon emissions reduction and associated technology risks, physical risks, legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments, economic and financial markets conditions in various countries, approvals, conduct of joint venture participants and contractual counterparties and cost estimates. The forward-looking information in this presentation is based on management's current expectations and reflects judgements, assumptions, estimates and other information available as at the date of this document and/or the date of Santos' planning processes. Except as required by applicable regulations or by law, Santos does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or review any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. Forward looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation or the date planning process assumptions were adopted, as relevant. Our strategies and targets will adapt given the dynamic conditions in which we operate; it should not be assumed that any particular strategies, targets or implementation measures are inflexible or frozen in time.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness, likelihood of achievement or reasonableness of any forward looking information contained in this presentation. Forward looking statements do not represent guarantees or predictions of future performance, and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond Santos' control, and which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements contained in this presentation.
All references to dollars, cents or $ in this document are to United States currency, unless otherwise stated.
Underlying profit, EBITDAX (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, depletion, exploration and evaluation expensed, change in future restoration assumptions and impairment) and free cash flow from operations (operating cash flows less investing cash flows net of acquisitions and disposals and major project capex, less lease liability payments) are non-IFRS measures that are presented to provide an understanding of the performance of Santos' operations. The non-IFRS financial information is unaudited however the numbers have been extracted from the audited financial statements. Free cash flow breakeven is the average annual US$ oil price at which cash flows from operating activities (before hedging) equals cash flows from investing activities. Excludes one-off restructuring and redundancy costs, costs associated with asset divestitures and acquisitions, and major project capex. Includes lease liability payments. Forecast methodology uses corporate assumptions.
The estimates of petroleum reserves and contingent resources contained in this presentation are as at 31 December 2023. Santos prepares its petroleum reserves and contingent resources estimates in accordance with the 2018 Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) sponsored by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE). The reserves and resources information in this presentation is based on, and fairly represents, information and supporting documentation prepared by, or under the supervision of, Paul Lyford, who is a full-time employee of Santos and is a member of the SPE. Dr Lyford meets the requirements of a QPRRE and is qualified in accordance with ASX Listing Rule 5.41. Conversion factors: 1PJ of sales gas and ethane equals 171,937 boe; 1 tonne of LPG equals 8.458 boe; 1 barrel of condensate equals 0.935; 1 barrel of crude oil equals 1 boe.
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2024 Macquarie Conference
Santos' strategy
Our purpose is to provide reliable and affordable energy to help create a better world for everyone
Low
carbon fuels
- Explore new fuel opportunities
- Market led developments, leveraging existing customers
- Disciplined approach to growth
Decarbonisation
- Develop our three decarbonisation hubs
- Build new revenue streams from carbon management services
- Investigate other technologies to develop new carbon management solutions
Backfill and sustain
- Backfill our existing assets
- Evolve to a lower capital intensity and shorter cycle capital focused business over time
- Reduce emissions intensity across the portfolio
- Continually improve free cash flow generative portfolio, funding shareholder returns and Santos Energy Solutions growth projects
2022 2030 2040 2050
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Markets Update
LNG demand is expected to shift from traditional buyers as developing economies look to transition to lower emissions fuel sources
Global LNG supply and demand1
Mtpa | ||||
1,000 | ||||
Global Supply | ||||
Global Under Construction | ||||
800 | ||||
Global Demand incl boil off | ||||
600 | ||||
400 | ||||
200 | ||||
0 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
2020 |
- Asia-PacificLNG demand to grow 69% by 2033.
- Longer term demand growth in Asia-Pacific is driven primarily by China this decade and SE Asia and South Asian nations next decade
Oil supply and IEA demand scenarios2
mmbbl/d / % OPEC + Russia share | ||||||||
140 | Decline with no investment | STEPS | NZE | 80 | ||||
120 | ||||||||
Investment in existing | APS | OPEC + Russia share | ||||||
100 | Investment in new projects | 60 | ||||||
80 | 40 | |||||||
60 | ||||||||
40 | 20 | |||||||
20 | ||||||||
02010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 20500 |
- Oil demand is expected to grow this decade, underpinned by economic growth and increasing energy intensity of developing economies
- New discoveries and significant on-going investment in new projects required to meet demand with existing fields reaching end of life3
- The OPEC World Oil Outlook 2023 has upgraded 2045 oil demand by ~5%.
1. | Wood Mackenzie LNG Tool Q1 2024. Wood Mackenzie Global gas industry in the 2050 net zero world, Dec-2023. Wood Mackenzie Global gas: Asia regional market report, Nov-2023. | 4 |
2. | IEA World Energy Outlook, Oct-2023, Figure 3.21. New oil projects are needed in the STEPS and APS but not the NZE Scenario. | |
3. | Source: S&P Global Fundamentals Crude Oil Markets Prices Long-term Outlook First Quarter 2024 |
2024 Macquarie Conference
Business overview
Increasing exposure to LNG and liquids. Emerging carbon management and low carbon fuels services
LNG | Oil and domestic gas | Santos Energy Solutions |
Four world-class | Lower carbon oil | ||||||
LNG projects | business3 | ||||||
PNG LNG | Alaska | ||||||
East coast LNG (GLNG) 1 | Domestic gas and | ||||||
Barossa / DLNG | |||||||
liquids | |||||||
Papua LNG2 | West coast |
Three midstream hubs in Australia and Timor-Leste
Varanus Island & | DLNG & | Moomba | ||
Devil Creek | Bayu-Undan | Plant & Port Bonython |
Midstream infrastructure processing services to Santos,
joint venture partners and third parties
Three CCS hubs to provide decarbonisation
and carbon management services
Low carbon fuels
Santos Foundation - Investing in our communities
1. Includes Cooper Basin supplying foundation gas to GLNG | 5 |
- Papua LNG is subject to FID decision
- Net zero scope 1 and scope 2 emissions equity share from first oil
2024 Macquarie Conference
Santos' LNG portfolio
Quality LNG customer base, strong contracted pricing, volume weighted average slope >14 per cent3
High quality portfolio of assets to meet growing Asian demand | Proximal to Asian demand centres |
• Four world class LNG assets sustaining Santos capacity of ~7.7 Mtpa1 and increasing production
• Infrastructure footprint provides foundation for lower cost backfill opportunities
• Building a lower emissions intensity LNG Portfolio
- Bayu-Undan and Papua CCS projects provide potential to reduce Scope 1 emissions
- Barossa reservoir emissions offset until CCS project is approved and online
- Close proximity to Asian markets reduces scope 3 emissions from shipping, with US to Japan 2.5x greater than Australia to Japan 2
Source: Kpler - Platform for global trade intelligence.
LNG production and Unit LNG operating costs1,4
mmboe, Santos share | Unit LNG operating cost, |
75 | $/MMBTUe real 2024$ |
50
25
0
2025F | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F | 2029F | 2030F | ||||
GLNG | PNG + Papua | Barossa | Unit LNG operating cost | ||||||
Pacific Basin LNG supply and demand
3 | 800 | Mtpa LNG | Pacific Basin Supply | ||||
2 | 600 | Pacific Basin Demand | Source: Wood | ||||
Mackenzie | |||||||
400 | LNG Tool Q1 | ||||||
2024. Pacific | |||||||
1 | basin supply | ||||||
Includes both | |||||||
200 | operational | ||||||
and under | |||||||
0 | construction | ||||||
02020 | projects | ||||||
2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
1. PNG LNG assumes 42.5%, until final completion of the sale to Kumul, Santos will retain control of the entity with the 2.6% working interest, of which 1.6% is partially complete. GLNG assumes 30% working interest. DLNG
assumes 43.4% working interest. Papua LNG project assumes 17.7% working interest and is subject to a final investment decision. | 6 |
2. Source: Thunder Said Energy, Emissions of Producing Natural Gas Calculator, CO2 intensity of natural gas value chains. |
- Slope to Japan Custom Crude (JCC) marker, excludes Barossa LNG contracts in place
- Unit LNG operating costs includes upstream production costs, midstream opex pro-rata for Santos equity production, tolls to DLNG, PNG Oil opex and royalties. Excludes shipping costs
2024 Macquarie Conference
Barossa / DLNG
Opportunity to further develop resources to potentially support the expansion of DLNG facility
Project snapshot
Total Capacity | 3.7 Mtpa | |
Reserve & | Total Northern Australia 2P Reserves 2,045 PJ | |
resource size1 | Total Northern Australia 2C contingent reserves 4,679 PJ | |
Operatorship | Santos | |
Ownership | Santos | 50.0% |
(Barossa) | SK E&S | 37.5% |
JERA | 12.5% | |
Ownership | Santos | 43.4% |
(DLNG) | Inpex | 11.4% |
ENI | 11.0% | |
JERA | 6.1% | |
Tokyo Gas | 3.1% | |
SK | 25.0% | |
Customers | Diamond Gas International2 (Mitsubishi) - | 1.5Mtpa, 10 years |
Expansion | Petrel-Tern | |
potential | Browse Basin (Crown, Lasseter, Poseidon) | |
Betaloo and McArthur Basins | ||
Third party gas | ||
1. | Santos share | 7 |
2. | Santos equity share only |
2024 Macquarie Conference
East Coast LNG (GLNG)
The Cooper Basin has been producing for 50 years and provides supply for GLNG, paired with an attractive CCS option for abated gas production
Project snapshot
Total Capacity | 8.6 Mtpa (max run rate) | |
Current run rate ~6.1 Mtpa | ||
Reserve and | Total QLD & NSW 2P Reserves 1,862 PJ | |
resource size1 | Total QLD & NSW 2C Contingent resources 2,985 PJ | |
Total Cooper Basin 2P Reserves 583 PJ | ||
Total Cooper Basin 2C Contingent resources 1,119 PJ | ||
Downstream | Santos GLNG | |
operatorship | ||
Ownership | Santos | 30.0% |
(GLNG) | PETRONAS | 27.5% |
TotalEnergies | 27.5% | |
KOGAS | 15.0% | |
Customers | KOGAS 1.5Mtpa x 2 contracts 15 years ending 2031 | |
Petronas 1.5Mtpa x 2 contracts 20 years ending 2036 | ||
Expansion | Cooper Basin resources, including granite wash | |
potential | Other Eastern Queensland resources including Mahalo, | |
Kia Ora, Arcadia West & Yoorooga | ||
1. Santos share
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2024 Macquarie Conference
PNG LNG
Low cost backfill for PNG LNG and expansion through Papua LNG integration
- Santos share
- PNG LNG assumes 42.5%, until final completion of the sale to Kumul, Santos will retain control of the entity with the 2.6% working interest, of which 1.6% is partially complete
- P'nyang joint venture partners include: ExxonMobil 49%, JX Nippon 12.5% and Santos 38.5%
Project snapshot | PNG LNG | Papua LNG | ||
Total Capacity | 8.8 Mtpa until Papua LNG online | Unsanctioned, currently in FEED | ||
~5.6 Mtpa | ||||
(max run rate) | ||||
(~2 Mtpa tolls through | ||||
~6.3 Mtpa with Papua LNG online | ||||
PNGLNG) | ||||
Reserve and | Total PNG 2P Reserves 2,892 PJ | |||
resource size1 | Total PNG 2C Contingent resources 4,580 PJ | |||
Operatorship | ExxonMobil | TotalEnergies (Upstream) | ||
Exxon Mobil (Downstream) | ||||
Ownership | ExxonMobil | 33.2% | TotalEnergies | 37.6% |
Santos | 42.5%2 | Santos | 22.8% | |
Kumul | 16.8% | ExxonMobil | 37.0% | |
JX Nippon | 4.7% | JX Nippon | 2.6% | |
MRDC | 2.8% | *Pre government back-in | ||
Customers | • JERA 1.8Mtpa 20 years to 2034 | |||
• Osaka Gas 1.5Mtpa 20 years to 2034 | ||||
• CPC 1.2Mtpa 20 years to 2034 | ||||
• Sinopec 2.0Mtpa 20 years to 2034 | ||||
Expansion/ | Agogo / Moran | Development of Elk-Antelope | ||
backfill potential | Juha field | field | ||
P'nyang3 | ||||
Wildebeest | ||||
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Base business performing and delivering
Providing reliable production to underpin the portfolio
PNG LNG
The second Angore well has been successfully cased after drilling production hole to Target Depth, with results in line with expectations. Completion operations have now commenced for both wells. Production of ~350MMscf/d gross is expected to backfill into PNG LNG
EASTERN
AUSTRALIA LNG
Drilled and lined the longest dual lateral horizontal well in Queensland at 5,038 MD.
Four well drilling campaign in Gidgealpa yielded two high side results, with an initial combined hydraulic stimulation flowback rate exceeding 22 mmscf/d
NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA LNG
Production continues to deliver above
expectation
Recently agreed new gas contract to extend delivery of Timor-Leste gas into the NT domestic market
WESTERN
AUSTRALIA OIL &
GAS
Halyard-2 infill well anticipates raw gas delivery to the Varanus Island plant to supply the WA domestic market. Halyard-2 infill well targeting FID in 20241
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1. Subject to environmental planning approvals
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Disclaimer
Santos Ltd. published this content on 08 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 08 May 2024 23:38:03 UTC.