Financials Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri

Equities

TUPRS

TRATUPRS91E8

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

Delayed Borsa Istanbul Other stock markets 05:15:16 2024-05-17 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
183.8 ^TRY	+1.66%		-1.87%	+28.46%

Mar. 04	Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. Reports Earnings Results for the Full Year Ended December 31, 2023	CI
Mar. 04	Transcript : Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S., Q4 2023 Earnings Call, Mar 04, 2024

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	31,753	27,045	38,665	145,858	275,532	348,365	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	40,209	36,465	49,882	133,029	275,532	283,218	298,505	298,757
P/E ratio	60.4 x	-10.8 x	11.7 x	3.55 x	3.9 x	6.61 x	7.26 x	6.56 x
Yield	11.9%	-	-	-	-	13.9%	9.01%	8.72%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.35 x	0.43 x	0.26 x	0.3 x	0.4 x	0.4 x	0.36 x	0.31 x
EV / Revenue	0.45 x	0.58 x	0.33 x	0.28 x	0.4 x	0.32 x	0.31 x	0.27 x
EV / EBITDA	10.6 x	73.8 x	3.84 x	2.41 x	3.46 x	3.84 x	4.95 x	4.72 x
EV / FCF	4.02 x	35.4 x	-68.2 x	3.06 x	-	5.14 x	9.92 x	9.15 x
FCF Yield	24.9%	2.83%	-1.47%	32.7%	-	19.5%	10.1%	10.9%
Price to Book	2.45 x	2.36 x	2.2 x	2.19 x	-	1.45 x	1.56 x	1.33 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,752,934	1,752,934	1,752,934	1,926,796	1,926,796	1,926,796	-	-
Reference price ²	18.11	15.43	22.06	75.70	143.0	180.8	180.8	180.8
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/11/21	2/16/22	2/8/23	3/4/24	-	-	-

¹TRY in Million²TRY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	89,601	63,244	150,972	481,765	686,529	871,450	964,235	1,116,675
EBITDA ¹	3,807	494.2	12,996	55,192	79,691	73,731	60,250	63,247
EBIT ¹	2,230	-248	12,209	54,542	73,628	61,556	45,418	50,132
Operating Margin	2.49%	-0.39%	8.09%	11.32%	10.72%	7.06%	4.71%	4.49%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-311	-3,795	2,161	39,876	57,820	71,254	66,807	93,373
Net income ¹	526	-2,494	3,319	41,045	53,577	51,510	51,043	59,580
Net margin	0.59%	-3.94%	2.2%	8.52%	7.8%	5.91%	5.29%	5.34%
EPS ²	0.3000	-1.423	1.893	21.30	36.71	27.37	24.89	27.55
Free Cash Flow ¹	9,997	1,031	-731.4	43,484	-	55,088	30,102	32,646
FCF margin	11.16%	1.63%	-0.48%	9.03%	-	6.32%	3.12%	2.92%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	262.6%	208.64%	-	78.79%	-	74.72%	49.96%	51.62%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	1,900.61%	-	-	105.94%	-	106.95%	58.98%	54.79%
Dividend per Share ²	2.164	-	-	-	-	25.17	16.30	15.77
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/11/21	2/16/22	2/8/23	3/4/24	-	-	-

¹TRY in Million²TRY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	40,993	56,470	76,541	135,785	150,609	116,026	92,826	104,405	185,137	304,160	325,696	399,072	422,274	417,634	412,478
EBITDA ¹	2,472	6,861	4,467	15,887	17,779	16,400	11,703	8,968	27,197	32,361	15,147	10,777	15,429	13,219	10,702
EBIT ¹	2,276	6,690	-	12,159	13,734	16,382	11,438	8,694	26,890	27,144	11,944	7,298	10,741	8,432	8,452
Operating Margin	5.55%	11.85%	-	8.95%	9.12%	14.12%	12.32%	8.33%	14.52%	8.92%	3.67%	1.83%	2.54%	2.02%	2.05%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	1,155	669	1,062	-	-	-	-	6,538	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	988	1,392	895.7	10,611	11,554	17,589	6,748	7,217	21,306	18,306	12,172	14,441	12,176	7,697	6,211
Net margin	2.41%	2.46%	1.17%	7.81%	7.67%	15.16%	7.27%	6.91%	11.51%	6.02%	3.74%	3.62%	2.88%	1.84%	1.51%
EPS ²	0.5643	0.7929	-	-	5.997	9.128	3.503	4.310	11.06	9.610	6.317	7.495	6.319	3.995	3.223
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	11.00	17.25	-
Announcement Date	11/4/21	2/16/22	5/9/22	8/15/22	11/3/22	2/8/23	4/28/23	7/31/23	10/25/23	3/4/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹TRY in Million²TRY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	8,456	9,420	11,217	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	12,830	-	65,147	49,860	49,607
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.221 x	19.06 x	0.8631 x	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	9,997	1,031	-731	43,484	-	55,088	30,103	32,646
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	4.62%	-20.4%	22.9%	96%	-	21.8%	18.5%	19.5%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.1%	-4.27%	4.06%	29.8%	-	10%	21.2%	7%
Assets ¹	47,788	58,340	81,853	137,575	-	515,102	241,337	851,144
Book Value Per Share ²	7.390	6.530	10.00	34.60	-	125.0	116.0	136.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	6.470	1.210	0.3400	24.00	58.40	24.00	37.10	53.10
Capex ¹	1,337	1,083	1,325	2,775	-	16,504	13,795	15,253
Capex / Sales	1.49%	1.71%	0.88%	0.58%	-	1.89%	1.43%	1.37%
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/11/21	2/16/22	2/8/23	3/4/24	-	-	-

¹TRY in Million²TRY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

180.8 TRY

Average target price

183.9 TRY

Spread / Average Target

+1.70%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Petroleum Refining

	1st Jan change	Capi.
TÜRKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI	+28.46%	10.82B
ORLEN SPÓ?KA AKCYJNA	+6.50%	20.56B
IDEMITSU KOSAN CO., LTD.	+31.27%	8.73B
ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P.	+6.49%	7.86B
MANGALORE REFINERY AND PETROCHEMICALS LIMITED	+57.45%	4.38B
SINOPEC SHANGHAI PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY LIMITED	+3.54%	3.36B
MOTOR OIL HELLAS CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.	+16.92%	3.28B
HELLENIQ ENERGY HOLDINGS S.A.	+18.34%	2.88B
CVR ENERGY, INC.	-3.53%	2.94B
ESSO S.A.F.	+232.91%	2.52B

Petroleum Refining