Analysis: Currencies

Currencies: A big mess

The end of February saw a real shift in tone. This is no longer just an equity consolidation fuelled by sector rotation. It is a test of the macro regime itself, caught between tariffs swinging back...

Japan's services inflation steady, signals wage-driven price pressure

A leading indicator of Japan's services sector prices rose 2.6% in January from a year earlier, data showed on Wednesday, a sign rising wages from a tight labour market continued to pile inflationary...

Tariffs: how the White House tripped over its own feet

The White House loves to dramatise the stakes. But it is a double-edged strategy.

Winners and losers from Trump's new 15% global tariff

The U.S. Supreme Court annulment of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs justified on national emergency grounds and Trump's subsequent move to impose a temporary 15% global tariff have thrown...

Fed's Waller: January jobs data an upside surprise, if it continues a policy pause may be appropriate

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to leaving interest rates on hold at the Fed's March meeting if upcoming February jobs data indicates the U.S. labor market had pivoted to...

EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD): Without a pivot, no salvation

For several months, the market had been operating on a simple script: solid growth, easing inflation, two rate cuts starting in June. However, the PCE has now complicated that equation. While most...

Currencies: Tariffs, Act 2

Equities are consolidating because leadership is changing. The dollar is resisting because the Fed is not pivoting . The yen is hesitating because global stress is not taking hold. However,...

With US tariff rates up in the air, the economic fog again thickens

U.S. and foreign officials, corporate executives, analysts and investors had begun to hope the tumultuous U.S. trade policy reversals of last year were finished. Now they face rekindled uncertainty...

Reaction to US Supreme Court ruling and Trump's new tariff threat

U.S. President Donald Trump said he will raise a temporary tariff on U.S. imports from all countries to 15% from 10%, following a Supreme Court decision striking down a large swath of his tariffs. The...

BOJ may raise rates in March if yen resumes slide, says ex-policymaker

The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as March if the yen renews its slide ahead of a U.S.-Japan summit expected to be held during the month, former central bank board member Makoto...

Tariff ruling limits Trump's leverage but won't end uncertainty for trade partners

The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down a large swath of President Donald Trump's tariffs has weakened his ability to threaten and impose tariffs at a moment's notice, but it won't end...

Supreme Court tariff ruling clouds Fed's rate path after a year of upheaval

The Supreme Court's ruling against a broad set of the Trump administration's tariffs poses new questions for Federal Reserve policymakers who have spent the last year trying to understand how the...

Trump nodded to low GDP numbers in social post ahead of public release, blaming shutdown

President Donald Trump seemingly flagged a disappointing end-of-year reading on U.S. economic growth before it was made public, criticizing the role Democrats played in an extended government shutdown...

Dollar set for best week in four months on hawkish Fed, geopolitics

The dollar was poised on Friday to cap its strongest weekly performance since October, buoyed by a run of better-than-expected economic data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and as tensions...

Japan's core inflation slows to 2-year low, complicates BOJ rate-hike timing

Japan's annual core consumer inflation hit a two-year low to match the central bank's 2% target in January, data showed on Friday, suggesting weakening price pressure that could complicate its...

Fed's Kashkari: Hassett comments about Fed researchers represent another attack on independence

The call by a top Trump administration official for New York Federal Reserve staff to be disciplined for recent research on tariffs was just the latest move by the administration to undermine the...

Visa strikes deal for Prisma, Newpay to boost Argentina presence

Card giant Visa said on Thursday it would buy payment platforms Prisma and Newpay from private-equity firm Advent International, bolstering its presence in Argentina. The deal will help...

ECB's Lagarde signals no imminent exit as politics and central banks collide

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has told colleagues she remains focussed on her job and she would tell them first if she was about to step down, a message they took to mean she was...

Japan may see upheaval of funds when BOJ hikes rates to 1%, economist says

An expected rise in Japan's short-term interest rate to 1% may trigger a significant reallocation of cash into deposits that could complicate the Bank of Japan's monetary policy implementation, a...