1. Analysis
2. Indexes

Japanese equities start the new decade with some volatility, after a good 2019 vintage. The Nikkei has fallen by 0.34% in a mixed climate, between the optimism about international trade and the unspoken crisis in the Middle East. This new situation does not affect all of the stock market's compartments since Nec Corporation has already won 5% since the beginning of the year, as have Fujiflm (+4%) and Yokogawa (+3%). Graphically, on a daily basis, prices have entered a pattern of consolidation from the chart peak beyond the 24,000 point mark. Since then, the seller's market has remained prevalent, a movement confirmed by the correction that took the index up to a tie of 23,120 points. To consider a new step, it would be necessary to exit from the top with a crossing of the 24060 points or a break of the 22840 points. The configuration remains neutral within these two terminals. ...  ... 

At the other end of the planet, the Australian Enlarged Index, the S&P/ASX 200, achieved a good 2019 vintage, accumulating more than 19.7% since the beginning of the year. The 200 stocks in the Sydney Stock Exchange Index have diverging paths. Nevertheless, the majority are in the green since 80% are performing positively. The top prize went to Polynovo, a biopharma company, with a 271% increase. The Melbourne laboratory is currently focusing on the development and commercialization of innovative medical devices using its technology in the treatment of burns, surgical wounds and negative pressure therapy. Jumbo Interactive   (lottery reseller) replicates this exceptional track record with its 193%. On the other hand, Costa Group (fruit and vegetable producer) is picking up sharply, with a decrease of more than 60% Graphically, in daily data, the index returns to test the 6775-point line for the fourth time within two months. Driven by upward moving averages, prices could reach the higher technical level close to 6850 points, zenith inscribed this summer. The powerful upward trend is therefore expected to continue.

The lull in world trade has boosted European values in a context where monetary relaxation is an additional pillar of market support The components of the Stoxx 600 globally validate upward trajectories, with Iliad’s image taking off by 30% over the last month thanks to its recent publication. Even cause, even consequence for Getinge Sweden (medical equipment) which gathers more than 25% on the same reference period. Also on the Fiat Chrysler podium, the Italian action is taking advantage of its merger with Peugeot to win 24%. The automotive sector is a big winner with an increase of 11.5% On the other hand, among the monthly failures, Nokia generated a strong decline at a profit warning. Analysts have strongly downgraded it from where it fell by 30%. Graphically, on a daily basis, prices are continuously increasing from the 377-point base. The positive days follow one another in a historical way to bring the index to 406 points. The moving averages for days remain largely bullish and provide a good environment for the extension of the movement. Any downturn should be used to reposition itself, which should largely limit the consolidation phases. A significant return below 400 points would be required to weaken the current configuration.

Japanese stocks had one of their best months ever, with a 9% increase. The relaxation on international trade has a direct impact on Japanese values. The winners of this monthly sequence prove it. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, the shipping service provider, rebounded by 35%, as did industrialist Mitsui Mining, a specialist in non-ferrous metals (+37%). In addition to these cyclical movements, the Eisai laboratory is valued at 39% on the hopes of marketing a drug for Alzheimer’s disease. Graphically, in daily data, the extension extends. The crossing of the 22100 points generated a strong buyer consensus to rally the 23 330 points. The movement is intended to be violent and puts the clue in overbought mode.

The Brazilian stock market maintains excellent momentum, thanks to the retirement reform that drives buying initiatives. Investment bank Banco BTG Pactual achieved the best performance over the reference period, with an increase of 29%, followed by Klabin (paper industry) at +15%. This increase in equities is due to a good performance of the real which goes from 4.18 to 4 for one dollar. Graphically, in daily data, the Brazilian index set a record after record and is close to the symbolic line of 110,000 points. The moving averages are well oriented and validate a strong upward trend. At this stage of the configuration, the turning point remains far away. A consolidation phase towards 104 000 would not be alarming, however, passing under this line would further neutralize the current scenario.

Closure has characterized the behavior of U.S. equities over the past month. The progress is gradual and seamless. The Sp500 thus gained more than 4% over the last sliding month. The contributors to this upward movement are mainly grouped around three values First of all, Align Technology, which exploded by 42% and thus recovered a good part of its early decline at the beginning of the year. The dental braces specialist is supported in his winning career by Tiffany (41%), LVMH's target. On the other hand, through a complicated period (computer bugs), Twitter is more than 26% on the same reference period. Technically, on a daily basis, prices accelerated as they crossed the 3025-point line. A legitimate break can be set up to come back in the form of a pullback on this price zone.

The euphoria persists on Wall Street where the indices are beating record after record. Daily increases pile up to form a one-way trajectory (+3.5% over the last month). Everything is pre-packaged for price increases, while on the other hand, there is no news to stop the Dow Jones from progressing. This monthly rise completes an already very positive trend over 2019, accumulating 18% of earnings. The main contributors to the valuation of prices can be summarized in a few cases such as Caterpillar (22%), which benefits from the relaxation on the commercial case. The Dow chemist, one of the smallest capitalizations in the major index, follows with +21% as well as UnitedHealth (+15.2%). Further on, Apple adds 13% to its long list of upward sequences, bringing its annual advance to 67%. On the other hand, McDonald’s is down 10% against the trend. The brand is struggling to keep up with competitive pressure on deliveries and innovations. Technically, the Dow Jones makes history with the passing of 27,360 points, a former historical point that had not been beaten since July. This is done with the recent overrun of the resistance zone, to access new targets such as the first, highly symbolic target of 28,000 points. An imminent return below 27,360 points would be required to place the index in a more neutral configuration in the short term

In a context of geographical, economic and monetary relaxation (true alignment of the planets), the Euro Stoxx 50 returns to its highest levels in February 2018 at 3625 points, thus bringing its 2019 performance to 20.5%.  In October alone, the advance was 1.5%, led by a Germanic trio. Daimler has a 15% qualitative track record, followed by SAP and Volkswagen, both of which have a 10% increase.

Technology stocks are shining again on Wall Street. This time, the index rise is less concentrated by the GAFAs, a situation that is still valid today, but no longer by the majority of the components. Over the month of October, the Nasdaq100 shows an increase of 3.8%, helped by a general relaxation on all households at risk on the planet The main contributors to this upward trend are Align Technology (39%) and Tesla (30%). For both cases, the quarterly reports were above consensus. On the other hand, not all trajectories form positive figures, some stigmatizing strong disappointments, such as Hasbro ( 17%). Graphically, in daily data, prices have just scored a new historical high of 8120 points. The index therefore operates in an unknown area after crossing the 8,000 points.

“The Swiss major index has achieved a quality performance over 2019, accumulating more than 21% to date. This performance is highlighted because it is accompanied by an increase in the currency, thus increasing the earnings of euro area participants In terms of values, Sika posted the best monthly performance, with a 15% increase due to its margin increase to 16/18%, compared to 14/16% previously. The cement manufacturer increases its annual gain by more than 34%. ABB also has an excellent track record with a 6.8% price growth, the group showing some resilience despite the weakness of its industrial sector. Adecco also climbs on the performance podium, accumulating a total of 6.2% over the last month. Graphically, on a daily basis, prices have just produced a bullish edge to test the upper line of 10240 points. The buyer consensus was dynamically demonstrated, after a reflection phase that formed a broad trend of lateralisation between 9500 and 10120 points.The SMI index of unknown land on these prices and could symbolically search for the 10 400 points.

German values respond positively to hopes of a lull in the trade war. Indeed, some sectors had suffered terribly from the resurgence of protectionism. >In the last month of October, the Frankfurt index rose by 3.8%, led by the automotive sector. Daimler (+16%) and Volkswagen (+12%) were the subject of intensive purchases by investors. For its part, the SAP group is also taking advantage of the climate to grant itself 10% of this same reference period.A against trend, Wirecard is down 21%, the title is once again torpedoed by the Financial Times which accuses the German company of accounting fraud. Graphically, on a daily basis, prices have increased significantly since the break of 12,630 points. This dynamic increase is expected to continue until the 13,170 point line, a resistance zone that corresponds to the highest level in May 2018.

The major Canadian index, which currently includes 233 companies, has undergone a major consolidation phase since the end of the first quarter. More sensitive to price variations in raw materials or hemp than to the turmoil of the trade dispute, the Toronto TSX maintains a qualitative performance over 2019, with a 14% increase thanks in part to the exposure of certain mini specialties in the above-mentioned metals If we focus on the last quarter, the arbitrations show new themes, such as banking services. Equitable Group has indeed gained 36% over the last three months, as well as green energy with battery designer Ballard Power Systems (30%). On the other hand, bad weather for cannabis, which sees its societies (Canopy, Cronos, Aurora) shrinking sharply between 35 and 40% each, over the same reference period. Graphically, in daily data, prices form oscillations between two distinct bounds. In the upper part, the 16,900 points resulted in a price rejection towards the 16330 points. On the lower part of the configuration, the 16,000 point support has recently been effectively tested three times. Neutrality is therefore necessary between these two limits. Only crossing this lateral trend would set a more assertive directional direction.

Driven by hopes of negotiations on Brexit, Stoxx Europe 600, which includes stocks from 17 countries, has been gaining since the beginning of October (+0.2%).

Sensex’s actions have recovered well thanks to the recent surprise drop in corporate taxes from 30% to 22%. The Bombay Stock Exchange had, on the other hand, celebrated this news with a 5.3% increase, the strongest one-day advance in 10 years. Over the last sliding month, Sensex grew by 2.9% overall, accumulating 7% over 2019. Among the winning components within the index are Asia Paints (+17.2%), the number one in Asia for paint manufacturing and marketing, which is characterized by steady growth each year. On the other hand, nothing is going well for Yes Bank, which lost another 42% during the same reference period, in an already catastrophic course (-78% over the current financial year), due in part to the bankruptcy of Jet Airways leading to an irrecoverable credit crunch. Graphically, on a daily basis, prices suddenly resisted contact with 36,100 points to reach the 39,100-point resistance. From this rapid movement, the consolidation phase develops into a pullback on the relevant line of 37 530 points. The next exit, either from the top or from the bottom, will give a more pronounced directional direction to aim in the case of an acceleration, the target of 40,200 points or in the scenario reverses the support to 36 100 points.

The Amsterdam stock exchange retains volatility generated by dithering over the trade dispute, which is often offset by expectations of a rate cut. Despite everything, the AEX, an index without dividend reinvested, achieved a quality performance over 2019, with an advance of 18.3%, or 22.2% including distributions to shareholders. During these three months, the increase is limited to 1.65% even if a majority of values achieve a negative path. Among the winners, during this reference period, ASML made an advance of 30%, taking advantage of the renewed hope for a trade agreement. The title of the specialist in equipment for the semiconductor industry is followed in its performance by Ahold Delhaize (supermarkets), which increased by 13% Graphically, in daily data, the index has changed over the past six months in a sinusoidal way, accelerating twice on highest points to 583 points, then falling back just as quickly to the bottom of 534 points. Moving averages perfectly reflect this neutrality with a horizontal orientation. It will therefore be necessary either to extend beyond the annual zenith or, on the contrary, to break the support of the 534 points, to validate a more directional trend.